Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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The Market Bottom Is Not In Yet | Danielle Park Jan 28, 2024

Show notes

According to the latest government data, the US economy is growing faster than expected, inflation is largely under control, jobs are plentiful and consumer households remain "resilient". So from this perspective, times are good. But talk to real consumers and you hear a very different story. The cost of living is at crippling levels, forcing consumers to stop saving and put an increasing amount of their living costs on revolving credit -- which currently charges record high APRs. Consumers looking for new jobs report the market is not nearly as hungry for workers as the government numbers suggest. Instead, hiring freezes and layoffs are prevalent. From their view, times are tight and getting tougher. Which story is the more accurate one? And should we expect things to get better or worse from here? For answers, we're fortunate to turn to Danielle Park, president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada’s wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #housingmarket #marketcrash

Will The Current Bull Stampede In Stocks Turn Into A Bearish One? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jan 28, 2024

Show notes

NEW!! SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com The S&P just hit a new all-time high for 5 straight days over the past week. It missed doing so again on Friday by the thinnest of whiskers (0.07%) Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says it’s clear we’re now in what’s called a “bullish stampede” in stocks, where rising prices entice more investors into the market, leading to even higher prices, and so on… It’s a lot of fun if you’re long. But realize that pure emotion is driving the action, not logic. Which is why bullish stampedes tend to be short-lived (a few weeks, maybe) and often end by reversing into a bearish stampede. Should investors try to ride these manic trends for all their worth? Or step aside of the stampede? In this video Lance’s shares his thoughts, as well as the trades his firm made this week. #stocks #bullmarket #bearmarket

Debate On "Peak Cheap Oil": Fact Or Overblown Fear? | Doomberg vs Adam Rozencwajg Jan 25, 2024

Show notes

A month ago, energy analyst Doomberg published a report titled "Peak Cheap Oil Is A Myth", and a few weeks back, I interviewed him about it. To say it ruffled feathers would be a huge understatement. Those in the Peak Cheap Oil camp have clamored for a chance to respond to Doomberg's claims, and that's exactly what we're going to do here in this video. Today, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner of Goering & Rozencwajg, natural resource investors, sits down for a discussion with Doomberg -- which will moderated by yours truly -- to debate, or better "co-explore", the question: Looking at the next 50 years, is the threat of Peak Cheap Oil fact or overblown fear?

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #oil #peakoil #energy

Housing Market To Suffer 'Aggregate Price Decline' This Year | Melody Wright Jan 21, 2024

Show notes

The US real estate market remains frozen.

Transactions are at multi-decade lows, mortgage rates remain painfully high and home prices are at near record-levels of unaffordability.

As we enter 2024, should we expect things to get better for housing, or worse?For answers, we turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright, who has been busy visiting many of America's most popular housing markets to develop a true boots-on-the-ground understanding of where the trends are headed.

Melody expects the spring selling season to finally start unlocking "true price discovery" for the US housing market, and predicts a national aggregate price decline as the year progresses.

Follow Melody on X/Twitter at @m3_melody

Or on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Melody. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#housingmarket #homeprices #realestate

How Bullish Is The New Market All-Time High? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jan 20, 2024

Show notes

The S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high yesterday (1.19.24).How much of a bullish signal is that for stocks for 2024?

Maybe not as big of one as many think. Remember, over the past 2 years, stocks have returned 0%.

Stocks are not at oversold reading at this point, meaning that there's not a lot of room to run higher before they become overbought.

Plus, the potential looming challenges of the draining of the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and the expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could pour cold water on the market's euphoria.

To learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27, 2024, go to https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#stocks #reverserepo #btfp

The Fed Fears A Liquidity Crisis More Than An Inflationary One | Jim Bianco Jan 18, 2024

Show notes

Rumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024. Is the end of QT indeed imminent? If so what will the implications be? To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're fortunate to sit down with analyst Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. Jim thinks the Fed is now scrambling to cut rates and end QT because of the brewing potential for a liquidity crisis once the Reverse Repo Program is fully drained.

Follow Jim at https://www.biancoresearch.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @BiancoResearch

And check out his new ETF, ticker: WTBN

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Jim. Go to https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #reverserepo #inflation #federalreserve

Avoiding Recession Won't Be Easy With The Economic Challenges In Play | Andy Constan Jan 16, 2024

Show notes

It's a tough time to be an investor.

There are cross-currents galore in the macro data, the financial headlines, policy decision-making, and market technicals.

After the easy decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis where markets dependably churned higher year after year and you could make money just going long pretty much any stock or ETF and "buying the dips" along the way -- suddenly it's taking a lot more hard work to earn a good return.

What are the keys to investing success in today's more uncertain environment?

For guidance, we're fortunate to talk with Andy Constan, founder of the macroeconomic research firm Damped Spring. His work there builds on his earlier tenure at elite firms like Solomon Brothers, Bridgewater and Brevan Howard.

He sees the likelihood of a 'soft landing' as low given today's economic challenges.

And in his explanation, he delivers a detailed summary of how the Reverse Repo Programm (RRP) and the Bank Funding Term Program (BFTP) work.

Follow Andy at https://dampedspring.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @dampedspring

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Andy.

#bftp #softlanding #reverserepo

Growth Slowdown & Returning Inflation Are The Key Turning Points For 2024 | Lakshman Achuthan Jan 14, 2024

Show notes

The real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action. Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors. Which key turning points are in play right now? And how can we best take advantage of them? Lakshman predicts the slowing growth (e.g., recession) and a return of inflation will be the key themes of 2024. Investors should prepare for both in their portfolio positioning. Follow Lakshman at https://www.businesscycle.com Or on LinkedIN at https://www.linkedin.com/company/economic-cycle-research-institute-ecri

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this interview with Lakshman. #recession #inflation #businesscycle

Do Steepening Yield Curves = Recession Near? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jan 13, 2024

Show notes

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts has long stated that it's not the inversion of the yield curve that means recession is near, it's when the curve un-inverts. Well, we're now starting to see the first un-inversions. The 2s-30s yield curve has steepened and is no longer inverted. Does that mean the recession countdown has begun? Lance and I discuss this as well as this week's surge in the S&P, the latest on the bond market, the just-released December inflation data, the new Bitcoin ETF, and, as usual, Lances' firm's latest trades. Learn more about Lance's event on Sat Jan 27th in Houston at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #inflation #yieldcurve #recession2024

Bear Market, Recession, Layoffs: Lots Of Ways For 2024 To Get Worse | John Rubino Jan 12, 2024

Show notes

How stable is our current system -- economically, geo-politically and socially? The markets seem confident it's quite stable. But you don't have to look that hard to find evidence of stress fractures: from recessionary leading indicators, to struggling consumer households, to the frozen real estate market, to the breakdown of trade through the Red Sea, to the loss of faith in once-premier establishment brands like Harvard, to the polarization and cynicism of this year's US presidential election. What's more likely to happen from here: ascent or breakdown? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk. Sign up for John's Substack at https://rubino.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bearmarket #layoffs

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