Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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"Unhealthy" Housing Market Stuck In A Tug-Of-War | Lance Lambert Dec 20, 2023

Show notes

While 2023 was a much better year for stocks and bonds, the housing market has fared less well. Instead, 2023 was the year gravity caught up with home prices. They've stopped rising nationally for the most part, and certain once red-hot cities are now starting to see clear declines. Is this the Wile E. Coyote moment before prices start plummeting under today's high mortgage rates? Or will the housing market prove resilient as we enter 2024? To find out, we'll talk with real estate analyst Lance Lambert, former real estate editor for Fortune and now co-founder & editor of ResiClub.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #housingmarket #realestate #mortgage

Stocks Are Richly-Priced & The Economy Is Late-Stage, So 'Selectivity' Is Key | Cameron Dawson Dec 19, 2023

Show notes

By many calculations, the stock market has returned to rich valuations. Following one of the best Novembers in market history and now juiced by fresh optimism for rate cuts -- now 3 of them -- in 2024, how valid are concerns that stocks are becoming increasingly overpriced and a pullback is warranted? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth Follow Cameron on X/Twitter: @camerondawson Or on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-dawson-cfa-89754b22/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the interviews with recent experts who have appeared on this channel, including this one with Cameron Dawson #stocks #recession #interestrates

The World Order Is Fraying. Will The Global Economy Survive? | Michael Every Dec 17, 2023

Show notes

In my recent interview with Felix Zulauf he mentioned that we are shifting from a unipolar world order into a multipolar world dis-order.The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Europe and Australia, so to provide a perspective from a point of view outside of the West, we're fortunate to hear from Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, who is based out of Singapore.Michael is concerned that the playbook nations are familiar with does not apply to the future dynamics ahead. Globalization is reversing in many corners of the world, and nationalism is on the rise. The tools used by economic central planners are becoming less and less effective. A new operating framework is needed.Will we adopt in time to avoid conflict and crisis?Michael is not optimistic. He thinks we may eventually discover and adopt the right policies...but likely only after we've exhausted every other option.Follow Michael on LinkedIN at https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-every-38983214/?originalSubdomain=sg

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#globalization #centralbanks #economy

Is The Fed Scared Of Something They're Not Telling Us About? | Michael Lebowitz & Adam Taggart Dec 16, 2023

Show notes

Lance Robert's portfolio co-manager Michael Lebowitz kindly steps in this week while Lance is away. Like many, he was caught off guard by the Federal Reserve's surprisingly dovish guidance this week. There's not an obvious reason why the Fed changed its stance on interest rate cuts so swiftly. Just two weeks ago, Jerome Powell was saying that his committee was not even talking about rate cuts yet. So what changed? Could the plans to cut rates more aggressively than previously guided be a sign the Fed is spooked by something Powell isn't telling us about? Like greater odds of a recession ahead? Michael and Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the future of inflation and interest rates, liquidity, the outlook for bonds, stocks and the markets in general. Michael concludes by sharing his firm's latest trade in response to the Fed's words.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #bonds #interestrates #federalreserve

'Buy Everything!' Says Wall Street As Fed Signals 3 Rate Cuts Are Coming | Axel Merk Dec 14, 2023

Show notes

Yesterday the Federal Reserve Market Committee announced it has chosen to keep the Federal Funds Rate steady for now, but when that changes, a rate cut is much more likely than a rate hike. In fact, the FOMC now expects it's probable it will cut rates three times in 2024. Following the release of this announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference where he clarified the Fed's thinking. Powell projected a largely positive vibe, pleased that inflation is declining, economic growth is slowing from the frothy levels seen in Q3, and that the labor market is "coming back into balance". He no longer expects a recession in 2024. Stocks, bonds, commodities and nearly ever other financial asset shot higher on the news. So, is this this "all clear"? Is it time for the bulls to run? Or may history repeat itself, as most recessions follow the first rate cuts made after a hiking regime? To find out, we talk with experienced Fed-watcher Axel Merk of Merk Investments, and take live audience Q&A. Follow Axel on X/Twitter at @AxelMerk

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/

#federalreserve #inflation #interestrates

Bonds Becoming "Irresistible" To Big Buyers, Prices Headed Higher | Alf Peccatiello Dec 12, 2023

Show notes

Bonds yields have weakened recently, making November the best month for global bonds since 2008 and for US bonds since 1985.

Is this the start of a recovery in the bond market, which has been battered and bruised for the past 3 years running?

Or, is this just a temporary reprieve?

To find out, we have to good fortune to hear from bond expert Alf Peccatiello of The Macro Compass.

Alf sees inflation coming down, which is making today's 4-5% Treasury yields extremely attractive to today's large institutional buyers who want to lock them in. He sees bonds prices doing very well next year.

Alf has just launched a new course education the regular investor about bonds and how to invest in them:

https://themacrocompass.org/courses/#bond-market-course The first 50 buyers can get 20% OFF by using the discount code ''ADAM'' at checkout:

#bonds #interestrates #inflation

Felix Zulauf: Stocks To Crash A Gut-Wrenching 40% Next Year? Dec 10, 2023

Show notes

As 2023 begins to draw to a close, investors are feeling substantially better than they were are the start of the year. And as we enter 2024 where is all this headed? Will today's asset prices shrug off the growing litany of macro concerns and power still higher in the new year? Or will 2024 see a return to the downside? I can't think of anyone better to ask these questions to than today's expert, Felix Zulauf, founder & CEO of Zulauf Consulting, who presciently predicted we have entered the "decade of the roller coasters" where markets will rise and fall dramatically as the natural forces of deflation battle it out with the rescue efforts of the central planners. Felix manages a prodigious amount in assets, so he doesn't have the luxury of an opinion without conviction. He has a strong picture of where we are in the current market cycle & is allocating capital accordingly. Follow Felix at felixzulauf.com

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for this interview with Felix, plus all the other recent experts who have appeared on this channel #marketcrash #bondyields #recession

Did The Santa Claus Rally Already Happen? Pullback Likely Ahead | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Dec 09, 2023

Show notes

With such a massive run-up in stocks and bonds in November, should we still expect a Santa Claus rally in the markets this month? Or did it already happen? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks that may be the case, or if we do get one, it will be quite mild. Unless a pullback happens soon, which Lance thinks is quite possible. He's reducing his long exposure and waiting for a pullback at this point. In this week's market recap, Lance and I talk about the strong correlation between financial asset prices and net liquidity. For much of this year, "stealth" liquidity from sources like the BTFP, the Reverse Repo program, and fiscal deficit spending have helped buoy stocks to near record highs. Will that continue in 2024? We also talk about the odds for recession risk, which are becoming cloudier. Experts are now quite divided on the matter. With such uncertainty, how should an investor consider positioning their portfolio? Lance shares how he, as a capital manager clients, is doing so now.

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bonds #liquidity

Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed's Sins Are Finally Going To Catch Up With Us In 2024 Dec 07, 2023

Show notes

Many of the guests appearing on this program recently, though perhaps none more than I, have warned that the Lag Effect will eventually catch up with the economy. That the tighter monetary conditions, the higher cost of capital, the rising lending standards -- are all increasing the gravitational force pulling downwards on economic growth. That at some point, "something important, or multiple somethings, will start to break" Is that indeed the likely scenario from here? And if so, is 2024 likely to be the year the Lag Effect arrives in force? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research LLC and author of the book "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America" Follow Danielle at https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ or at https://qiresearch.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @dimartinobooth

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes form this interview with Danielle, plus all the other recent experts who have appeared on this channel #federalreserve #inflation #recession

"We NEED A Recession!" Says Wolf Richter, Though He Doesn't See One Happening Soon Dec 05, 2023

Show notes

There are a lot of narratives flying around right now regarding the economy, the stock market, recession risk, jobs, inflation and what's going to happen next year. Given the recent 5%+ Q3 GDP print and one of the best Novembers on record for both stocks and bonds, bulls are back to saying "everything is awesome" again & 2024 will be a great year for making money Bears on the other hand point to near-record levels of overvaluation, recessionary leading indicators and warn the inevitable arrival of the lag effect will see the economy in recession next year and the return of a bear market. When sentiment is full of such crosscurrents, it's prudent to seek the counsel of those who take. cold and calculated look at the data, to see what "is" vs what our biases may want us to see. Which is why we're fortunate to speak with macro analyst Wolf Richter of WolfStreet.com, who will share with us what the charts he regularly compiles are telling him about the true state of today's economy & markets.

To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #recession #inflation #economy

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