Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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Will Stagflation Be The Price We Pay For A 'Soft Landing'? | Cem Karsan Jan 09, 2024

Show notes

Well it's a new year and with it, I'm doing my best to bring important new voices into the discuss here at Thoughtful Money. And today we're fortunate to sit down with one of them: Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. He's one of the more requested names I've had from this audience and I'm thrilled we've been finally able to make an interview with him happen.And he thinks we're early on in a new secular change that will make the coming decade look and feel very different in the economy, markets and society from what we've become accustomed to over the past several decades.

And in the near term, he sees inflation likely to resume again, in no small part due to the Fed's efforts to engineer a 'soft landing' this year.

Follow Cem at https://www.kaivolatility.com

Or on X/Twitter at @jam_crossaint

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #stagflation #inflation #recession

Stephanie Pomboy: Will The Rise Of Moral Hazard Be Our Economic Downfall? Jan 07, 2024

Show notes

Greed and exuberance returned to Wall Street as we ended 2023 and welcomed the start of 2024. Markets are trading near all-time highs, the Fed has switched to singing a more dovish tune, and confidence in a soft landing -- or no landing -- for the economy is high. Did we manage to emerge from all the chaos and distortion of the past few years without a major reckoning? Have we dodged the bullet of recession? For answers, we're lucky to talk today with top Thoughtful Money fan-favorites Stephanie Pomboy, economic & financial analyst and publisher of the respected research firm Macro Mavens.Perhaps more than anything else, she fears our growing culture of moral hazard, metastasizing from Wall Street now into Main Street, may end up being the trigger of the next economic crisis. Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @spomboy

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #moralhazard #recession #inflation

Is This A Garden-Variety Pullback Or Something More Worrisome? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jan 06, 2024

Show notes

2024 has seen the worst start to the year for stocks in 20 years. Is this just a natural pullback from overbought extremes, or is there something more worrisome afoot?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts gives his answer in today's Weekly Market Recap. We also discuss the new payroll report that beat expectations, as well as the different story that appears when looking "under the hood" at the component data.

And as usual, Lance also shares his most firm's most recent trades.

Learn more about Lance's conference on Sat Jan 27, 2024 at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#stocks #jobs #investing

Expect Lower Oil Prices In The New Era Of Abundant Supply | Doomberg Jan 04, 2024

Show notes

Nothing happens in an economy without energy. And despite the current efforts & hopes to de-carbonize our energy systems, the world remains heavily dependent on oil -- especially as the dominant transport fuel in moving goods from point A to point B. Oil has had a rocky ride the past several years, with its price ranging from a high of $120/barrel to briefly negative prices at the height of the pandemic chaos. Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global trade of oil, and so, to a lesser extent (so far at least), has the resurgence of war in the Middle East. What does 2024 look to have in store for this essential fuel? For answers, we're fortunate to speak with the energy experts at Doomberg today. The exceptional quality of their newsletter has made them the #1-ranked financial Substack in the world, for good reason.

Follow Doomberg at https://doomberg.substack.com/

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel

#oilprice #oil #energy

Darius Dale: "I'm About As Bullish As I Can Possibly Be" Looking At The Next 3 Months Jan 02, 2024

Show notes

When I think back on all the experts I interviewed last year, the one whose market predictions played out most accurately is Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. So what do his models tell him is likely to happen in 2024? In this video we ask the man himself.Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/Or on X/Twitter @dariusdale42

SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #bullmarket #stocks #bonds

Jim Rogers: Before It's All Over, We'll See Higher Inflation, Higher Rates & A Wicked Bear Market Dec 31, 2023

Show notes

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2024, it may help to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is James Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on wealth-building. In this interview, Jim explains why he believes the next market correction will be the worst of his lifetime, and why he sees higher inflation and higher interest rates ahead, as well.

LAST CHANCE! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #inflation #interestrates #bearmarket

Fiscal Spending Is Having A FAR Bigger Impact Than Investors Realize | Kevin Muir, The Macro Tourist Dec 28, 2023

Show notes

We're all aware of how the pandemic threw the economy and financial markets into unprecedented disarray. And for the past two years, investors have eagerly awaited them to return back to a state of normalcy. But has "normal" changed vs the pre-COVID days? How much of the old playbook no longer works well, if at all, in today's world? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. Kevin sees the impact of the ongoing fiscal stimulus as being much more impactful than investors currently understand. In terms of spending into the economy, he thinks the fiscal flood has just begun.

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

Or on X/Twitter at @kevinmuir

TIME IS RUNNING OUT! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #recession #inflation #fiscalspending

Stocks To Keep Heading Higher Until Inflation Starts Rising Again | Bloomberg's Simon White Dec 26, 2023

Show notes

Wall Street was extremely pessimistic heading into 2023, and the year surprised to the upside. Here at the end of the year, markets are now brimming with optimism and the S&P is trading at an all-time high. Is the momentum likely to continue? Or will 2024 be another surprise year for investors, this time to the downside? For an analyst's perspective, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategist at Bloomberg and co-founder of the investment-advisory firm Variant Perception.

ACT SOON! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #inflation #bullmarket #liquidity

Rising Liquidity To Power Markets Higher Through 2025? | Michael Howell Dec 24, 2023

Show notes

2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs. How did this happen? Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening? In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats. How? Why? Where is it coming from? And if it's such a key driver of asset prices, where is it headed from here? To find out, we're going to have a very important conversation today with Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital.

Get Michael's book Capital Wars at https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872

Subscribe to his Substack at https://capitalwars.substack.com

Or follow him on X/Twitter at @crossbordercap

Overbought Stock Market Likely To Pullback, Then Power Even Higher | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Dec 23, 2023

Show notes

In this final Weekly Market Recap of 2024, portfolio manager Lance Roberts explains why a short-term correction in stocks (and bonds, too) is highly likely. They've simply move so far, so quickly that technically-speaking they are at dangerously high overbought extremes. He thinks such a pull-back will be short-lived though. There's little standing in the way of stock moving even higher as we enter Q1, especially now that the Federal Reserve is guiding it will ease more than previously expected. Plus, a recession still looks unlikely anytime soon, jobs are still solid and inflation is coming down -- it's a pretty positive cocktail for financial assets right now.

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