Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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Demographic Time Bomb: US Population On Track To Start Shrinking By 2035 | Chris Hamilton Feb 15, 2024

Show notes

Narrative drives so much of the thinking today, especially when it comes to the markets. To prevent becoming unduly influenced by it, it's important to ground ourselves in data. We should ask first: what is the data saying? And then we can judge whether the current prevailing narratives are consistent with it. So, what is the current data telling us? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with Chris Hamilton, publisher of Econimica. If you're not familiar with the name, I'm confident you've come across a number of the prodigious amount of charts it publishes across a wide range of macro topics like the economy, demographics & the housing market. And the one he's most worried about? Demographics. The USA's population is set to start shrinking for the first time ever by 2035. That's just a little more than 10 years away. Follow Chris at https://econimica.blogspot.com/ Or on Twitter at @Econimica

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #population #demographics #immigration

Passive Capital Flows Are Starting To Reverse - This Will Change Everything | Michael Green Feb 13, 2024

Show notes

The officially-reported headline GDP, jobs and inflation numbers look pretty rosy right now. But how much of that is due to actual, healthy sustainable economic activity vs extraordinary government intervention? Deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at heights not seen outside of major wartimes and government jobs have surged, total federal employment reached its highest level in at least 20 years last year. Is the government putting its thumb on the scale here? And if so, is that a good or bad thing? To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stocks #liquidity #recession

Grant Williams: The Economy Is At "A Dangerous Point" Where Reality Is Much Worse Than Headlines Suggest Feb 11, 2024

Show notes

According to the official data - be it economic growth, disinflation or jobs -- things could hardly be better. But if you talk to a regular person on the street, they're likely to tell you that times aren't that great, and getting tougher. Why is the prevailing narrative so disconnected from the reality on the ground? And where are things likely to head from here? To tackle this conundrum, we're fortunate to welcome macro analyst and interviewer extraordinaire Grant Williams to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#wealthgap #wealthinequality #liquidity

Now That S&P 5,000 Has Been Hit, Is It Time To Lock In Gains? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Feb 10, 2024

Show notes

The S&P finally hit a new all-time high of 5,000 this week.

So does this milestone give the market the green light to rocket higher?

Or is this the right time to lock in recent gains by starting to sell?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the latter is more likely, especially as the S&P remains quite overbought here from a technical perspective. Which is why his firm is going to begin selling off positions starting Monday.

He provides the details of his selling strategy in today's Weekly Market Recap.

We also discuss solutions for the unaffordable housing market, Lance's warning to retirees, the US' unsustainable fiscal path, and potential success strategies for job seekers.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#retirement #housingmarket #jobs

Markets Could Easily Drop 30% (Or More) This Year | Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO Feb 08, 2024

Show notes

Markets seem pretty convinced that 2024 is experiencing, in the words of US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, a soft landing. But what if everyone is wrong? And if they are wrong, which assets are cheap right now and what will happen to the market? Steen Jacobsen, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, has been pointedly asking these questions of late. And today, we're going to hear what he thinks the answers are.

Follow Steen at analysis.saxo

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcrash #election #interestrates

The Fed Is Worried. Don't Be Fooled By Powell's False Confidence | Axel Merk Feb 06, 2024

Show notes

A few days ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its latest policy decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and reiterated that it thinks it's making good progress getting inflation under control while protecting the jobs market. Soon after Powell's conference, in a live event available only to Thoughtful Money’s premium Substack subscribers, noted Fed-watcher Axel Merk gave his breakdown of the Fed’s latest guidance, and then fielded live Q&A from viewers. Here’s the replay video of that discussion with Axel. Enjoy!

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #fed #interestrates

Stocks Will Be Supported, Because If Not, All Hell Could Break Loose | Sven Henrich Feb 04, 2024

Show notes

The bears had every opportunity to break the markets over the past few years: From a global pandemic with a broad economic shut down, to a resulting 40 year high in inflation followed by the most aggressive rate cycle in history. But the bears failed. The markets are back at all-time highs. And likely to power a lot higher from here, predicts technical analyst Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com, which he knows is an unpopular prediction among those skeptical of today's lofty market valuations. Sven himself doesn't like it! Sven recently released a report titled 'The Cynics Guide To Markets', laying out the rationale for this sanguine market outlook, which I'll ask him to summarize for us in today's conversation. Follow Sven at https://northmantrader.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bullmarket #federalreserve #stocks

Stock Prices Now In 'Positive Feedback' Loop | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Feb 03, 2024

Show notes

The S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same.

Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term.

How much longer can the melt-up last for?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the ramifications of this week's FOMC release and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the new (and hard-to-believe) payrolls data, and the revision higher in Q1 GDP forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow service.

And, as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.

Here's the link to the 1970's news coverage Adam mentions in his beached whale story: https://youtu.be/V6CLumsir34?si=k-GiiDds3Rdjbpvc

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#federalreserve #jobsreport #bullmarket

Lacy Hunt: Prepare For Recession, The Fed's Optimism Is Wrong Feb 01, 2024

Show notes

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year? For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #inflation #deflation

Farmland's Long Term Return Beats Stocks & Bonds. Here's How To Invest In It | Craig Wichner Jan 30, 2024

Show notes

One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced to become a farmer? For answers, we're fortunate to talk today with Craig Wichner, Managing Director of Farmland LP, which manages over 15,000 acres, farming them sustainably at scale.

#farmland #soil #organicfarming

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