Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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The Coming Year Will See Recession & A Major Correction In Stocks | Gordon Long Mar 03, 2024

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The economy is chugging along at more robust GDP growth than many expected. Inflation has moderated and unemployment remains low. Many, including Wall Street for certain, have bought into the soft landing -- or no landing at all -- narrative. We're in a Golidilocks era they tell us. Bears should stop worrying, admit they've been wrong, and join the party. So, is that truly the case? For answer,s we turn to market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight

Follow Gordan at https://matasii.com

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #recession #hardlanding #investing

Stock Rally 'Extremely Long In The Tooth' | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Mar 02, 2024

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Investing great Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly". But Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P 500 is egregiously expensive" Who's closer to right? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts leans more towards BofA's assessment, though that doesn't mean the current mania in stocks can't run higher. But given that the S&P has risen for 15 out of the past 17 weeks -- a feat not seen since the 1980s -- Lance feels that the current rally is "extremely long in the tooth" and the odds of a correction are elevated. We also talk about inflation, jobs, liquidity flows and the current level of risk commercial real estate poses to the banking system. For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Weekly Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #raydalio #stockmarketcorrection

Returning Inflation Is Putting The Fed In A Tough Spot | Truflation's Oliver Rust Feb 29, 2024

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Inflation has been called the invisible tax. Economist John Maynard Keynes wrote that, through it, "Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens" in a process that "engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." Which is why it's very important to know what's happening with inflation and where it's headed. But should we rely on government's reported numbers, as distorted as they are by fudge-factors like hedonics and substitution, and possible manipulation for political optics? No, says today's guest, Oliver Rust, co-founder of Truflation, a new blockchain-based real-time inflation calculation service that uses over 10 million data points to yield a more accurate measurement that represents what households actually experience. We'll find out what he thinks the true inflation rate is and where he sees it heading next. Follow Truflation at https://truflation.com/ or on social media at @truflation Email Oliver at oliver@truflation.com

WANT TO PROTECT THE PURCHASING POWER OF YOUR WEALTH? Schedule your free portfolio review with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #costofliving #prices

Markets Are In A "Speculative Blowoff", But When Will It End? | David Hay Feb 27, 2024

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Back in 1996, Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan famously said: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?" It was a prophetic question, as the stock market soon after became caught up in the mania of the DotCom bubble, reaching unprecedented levels of overvaluation followed by a precipitous price correction. The Nasdaq didn't return to its 2000 highs until 15 years later. Many are feeling like it's deja vu all over again with the latest run-up in the small number of stocks, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7, driving the market indices to new record highs. Are we in a new era of irrational exuberance, this time driven by the promise of artificial intelligence? And if so, what's the danger this time of another prolonged contraction ensuing? Contact David at https://evergreengavekal.com/meet-david-hay/ Or subscribe to his Substack at https://haymaker.substack.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection

Unaffordable Housing Market Still Due To Correct By 30-40% | Nick Gerli Feb 25, 2024

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Well, the average home price in America remains just about as unaffordable as it's ever been. In fact, a recent report from real estate data provider ATTOM examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner. And to add insult to injury, 30-year fixed mortgage rates just rose back above 7%. So, what lies ahead for home prices in 2024? To find out, we welcome housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app back to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #homeprices #housingmarket #housing

Is The Ongoing Meltup A Gift? Or A Danger? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Feb 24, 2024

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The S&P is at yet another record high in a week that saw the second-biggest 1-day gain in market cap in history after Nvidia (NVDA) delighted investors with blowout revenue& earnings growth. The bulls are stampeding hard now and FOMO-driven momentum chasers are back. Stocks remain solidly in short-term overbought territory. Valuation metrics of many companies like price-to-earnings & price-to-sales are being stretched, taffy-like, to extremes rarely seen. Are markets back to 'irrational exuberance'? Or is this just a great time for investors to make gains? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts shares how his firm is navigating the feeding frenzy, as well as what trades he's made over the past week.

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvda #nvidia #bullmarket

How To Invest For Income | Steven Bavaria Feb 22, 2024

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One of the most frequent requests from Thoughtful Money viewers is for a discussion focused on investing for income. Well, that's what we're delivering here. Steven Bavaria, author of the book 'The Income Factory: An Investor’s Guide to Consistent Lifetime Returns' joins us to share his framework for constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-generating assets that include: high dividend stocks, senior bonds, high yield bonds, covered call funds, Master Limited Partnerships, closed-end funds, and more. Follow Steven at https://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bavaria Or get his book here: https://www.amazon.com/Income-Factory-Investors-Consistent-Lifetime/dp/1260458539

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #incomeinvesting #dividendstocks #fixedincome

'Vast Majority' Of Investors Unprepared For Coming Higher Levels Of Inflation & Risk | Bob Elliott Feb 20, 2024

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After decades of moving towards increased globalization, the aftermath of the supply-chain vulnerabilities revealed by the COVID pandemic, as well as the geopolitical fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are pushing the world order into a more fragmented state. If trade globalization has indeed peaked, what does that mean for the future of the major world economies and for asset prices? To address, we're fortunate to be joined by Bob Elliott, former Investment Committee member at Bridgewater Associates and now CEO and CIO of the investment company Unlimited.

Follow Bob on X/Twitter at @BobEUnlimited On YouTube at youtube.com/ @BobEUnlimited And on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/ttoillebob/

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #globalization #investing

The Debt Ponzi, Not Inflation, Is The True Threat | Michael Lebowitz Feb 18, 2024

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Inflation for January rose higher than expected. Is this a one-off blip? Or is it a sign that the remaining inflation in the system is "sticky", and going to prove harder for the Federal Reserve to get under control? Some analysis have been warning that we may be falling into the same trap as we did in the 1970s, which saw a series of rollercoaster surges and drops in inflation until Fed Chair Paul Volker was forced to rise interest rates up to a crippling 20% to get prices under control. Is that kind of pain possibly in our future? To find out, we're fortunate to hear today from Michael Lebowitz, portfolio manager at Real Investment Advice. He works closely with Lance Roberts, who regular viewers see on this channel with me every Saturday.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #inflation #bonds

Odds Of Market Correction Rising As Retail 'Dumb Money' Piles In | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Feb 17, 2024

Show notes

The S&P 500 is now solidly above 5,000. Stocks have shrugged off "bad" data like higher inflation numbers & disappointing retail sales -- nothing at the moment seems able to dampen Wall Street's euphoria. And little surprise, retail investors are now piling into the markets, eager not to miss the party.

These are classic late-stage signs of a topping market.

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts calculates that a pullback is now highly likely, though he warns he would not be surprised if the S&P ran up another 100 points from here before it arrives. Animal spirits (i.e., investor emotions) are now fully in the driver's seat.

He also shares the many worrisome price and technical divergences he's now seeing that add validation to an impending correction.

And as usual, he shares the trades his firm has made this week.

For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #population #recession