The Macro Trading Floor

Latest Episodes:

The Next Big Macro Trade Feb 21, 2025

Show notes

Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be.

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20feb25/

How To Trade Tariff Day Jan 17, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities.

Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-17jan25/

The UK Bond Market Is Imploding Jan 10, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets.

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10jan25/

The Most Hawkish Fed In Years - What Now? Dec 20, 2024

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Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts?

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/

The US Dilemma in 2025 Dec 13, 2024

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing.

Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf?

Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg.

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-13dec24/

Trading Trump 2.0 Dec 06, 2024

Show notes

Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative?

Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6

Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/

Trump's Secret Agenda Nov 08, 2024

Show notes

In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?

FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86

Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-08nov24/

The Bond Market Is On Fire Oct 25, 2024

Show notes

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further.

Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates.

FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86

Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/

Financial Repression Is Here To Stay Oct 18, 2024

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios.

Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q7

Want to be in touch with Brent? Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg or visit spectramarkets.com

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-18oct24/

What If The Fed Made a Mistake? Oct 11, 2024

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.

Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8

Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11oct24/

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