The Macro Trading Floor

Latest Episodes:

It's Macro ShowTime! Jul 12, 2024

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the interesting market reaction to the weak US CPI report, and they dig deep into the '''Trump trade'': how would you trade a Trump victory and why? They also talk about the US Dollar and bond markets.

Want to chat with Alf on Bloomberg? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello)

You can find Brent's work on Spectra Markets or ping him on BBG (Brent Donnelly)

Transcript of the episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-july-2024/

Elm Toin Coss experiment: https://elmwealth.com/coin-flip/

Option Markets Are Eating The World Jun 21, 2024

Show notes

In this episode, Alf invites Cem Karsan to discuss what's going on in option markets. Cem does a great job at explaining what's the dispersion trade, how big it has become, and how it might unwind wreaking havoc across asset classes. Alf and Cem also discuss macro and how to use options to structure good risk/reward trade ideas.

Visit Cem's website: https://www.kaivolatility.com/

What Powell Really Meant Jun 14, 2024

Show notes

A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks.

Want to get in touch with Alf or Brent?

Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg

Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg

Risk Management Principles Jun 07, 2024

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad left tail outcomes when running carry trades, and how to identify positive expected value trades in macro.

Alf is offering a 2-weeks free trial to his institutional research: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg to get in.

Brent just launched Spectra School: www.spectramarkets.com/school

Transcript of this episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-07-june-2024/

Paper about the real value of gold: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4807895

The Signing of the Boob: https://x.com/donnelly_brent/status/1798055339881107626

Don't Make This Mistake May 31, 2024

Show notes

Free Trial to Alf's Institutional Research?

Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info!

In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show.

Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets.

Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets?

Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free Newsletter: www.macroisdead.com

How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties May 24, 2024

Show notes

Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen:

https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes.

The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward.

Plus, they discuss the odds of a Trump win and its implications.

Useful link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

https://www.semafor.com/article/05/21/2024/imprisoned-ex-trump-aide-peter-navarro-predicts-ouster-of-fed-chair-jay-powell

How To Trade Macro Now? May 17, 2024

Show notes

(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!)

Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time.

- Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator

- Link to Bill Bishop piece on China:

https://sinocism.com/p/putin-in-china-reactions-to-us-tariffs

- Link to the interview with Paul Tudor Jones: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alfonso-peccatiello-72156a6a_paul-tudor-jones-market-wizards-activity-7196033190011060226-jDKp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Early Signs of Weakness May 10, 2024

Show notes

The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well.

Is the market ready for a regime switch?

Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength.

Links mentioned in the show:

https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3

A New Fed Put? May 03, 2024

Show notes

Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week.

Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555

A Contrarian Macro Thesis Apr 26, 2024

Show notes

US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!

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