The Macro Trading Floor

Latest Episodes:

AI Bubble Popping Or A Boring Pullback? Oct 16, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent are back on the show to discuss the recent price action in AI stocks which is also heavily impacting the bond market. Is the AI bubble popping? Are credit fears to be taken seriously, such that the asset allocation has to change? Or is this just a boring pullback like the many others we saw along the way in the AI trade?

6% Yields Next & Will Stonks Handle It? Oct 09, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the relentless bond yield and USD move. Can we get to 6% yields in the US, or even higher? And will stonks be able to handle it?

Macro Blowups Everywhere - What Now? Oct 02, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the various macro blowups we are witnessing simultaneously: French spreads, front-end of the bond market, mortgage-backed securities, EM carry and so on. What's the best framework to apply for each of these?

On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades Aug 28, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The discussion then moves to two macro idiosyncratic ideas.

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY Aug 09, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro PMs: when to use options, and how to size them?

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes Jul 31, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the direction straight for everyone. How to handle such a market environment?

The Orange Variable Jul 10, 2026

Show notes

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how to approach these injections of uncertainty, and what are the best trading and risk management frameworks to deploy here.

The Rebasement Trade Jun 26, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options May 22, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG)

To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG)

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the best risk/reward ways to position for the macro environment ahead of us. They then deep dive into option structures around gold, and the question of increasing sample size of trades to reduce PnL variance against the risk of downgrading your edge and expected value per trade when the sample size increases.

Process, Process, Process May 15, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG)

To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG)

In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on various aspects of their investment/risk management process. They discuss several ideas and how to implement them according to their framework: when to use options? How to think about convexity?

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