The Macro Trading Floor

Latest Episodes:

Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World May 08, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com

To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com

Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU in negotiation phase, how the world might look like when Hormuz reopens, the Japanese FX intervention and more.

New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What? Apr 17, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com

To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com

Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and equity markets for the foreseeable future.

Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis Apr 10, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com

To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com

Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as a short-term oriented trader or as a long-term focused macro investor.

How To Trade Macro In A War Mar 20, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the war could unfold from here.

Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock Mar 06, 2026

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what framework can be used to trade such a market environment,

The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market Jan 30, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly).

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair could shape the US policy making objective in the bond market. The repercussions on the USD and on the incentive schemes for other large bond market players (e.g. Japanese investors) are not to be underestimated.

US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative? Jan 23, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly).

In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action which coincided with the tariff threats. Now that the TACO is here, the real question is: will this episode encourage global pension funds to hedge their gigantic USD exposure?

Japanese Macro Tails Jan 16, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly).

In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and long-term macro: is the MoF ready to intervene? How do you trade these policymaker-induced setups? And in the long-run, will the market keep punishing the JPY and long-end bonds or will the Bank of Japan turn hawkish and surprise the market?

The Everything SuperCycle? Jan 09, 2026

Show notes

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly).

In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro asset class under the sun: equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. The duo also talks about the reaction function of the Fed, and a few idiosyncratic ideas.

More Pain Ahead Or Buy The Dip? Nov 23, 2025

Show notes

The Nasdaq has now sold off nearly 10% from the highs, and the pain in momentum assets is even more severe.

Alf and Brent discuss whether there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead, or this is the time to step in and buy the dip.