The Macro Trading Floor

Latest Episodes:

Carry & Options In A Trump World Jul 25, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss the recent clashes between the Trump administration and the Fed, the more friendly deal-making stance on tariff deals, and how to use options when trying to capture convex moves and incorporate carry into your thinking.

Macro Crossroads: What's Next For Markets? Jul 18, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs' impact on the economy won't be easy to judge for months. So, what lies ahead of us?

Time For The Fed To Turn Dovish? Jun 13, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets.

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11jun25/

Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What? May 16, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give another free pass to US deficits, or will the bond/USD vigilantes show up this time?

Recession Risks & Reflexivity May 02, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets.

Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/

Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?! Apr 25, 2025

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This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell.

The Bond Vigilantes Are Here Apr 11, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss the incredible price action we are witnessing: USD down, equities down, and now bond yields up too. This is what Bond Vigilantes price action looks like, and while it's typical in emerging markets it's almost unprecedented in the US.

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10apr25/

You Ready For Liberation Day? Mar 28, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss the ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs - and come up with some interesting conclusions. Also, the duo assesses what the Trump administration's long-term plan might be. Finally, Alf and Brent discuss the concept and risk management behind carry trades.

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27mar25/

Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge Mar 07, 2025

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Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX.

Growth Scare: Yes or No? Feb 28, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not?

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