The Macro Trading Floor

Latest Episodes:

''Run It Hot'': The Comeback? Nov 14, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the resurgence of the ''run it hot'' trade: Trump floating around new fiscal stimulus and government reopening odds seem to have revived the trade. How to best approach markets going forward?

Want to reach out to Alf or Brent?

Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg chat, or alf@themacrocompass.com

Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg chat, or bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com

We Have A Deal: Now What? Oct 31, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the market reaction to the ''deal'' between Trump and Xi: what happens next?

The duo also covers the Fed and BoJ decisions, the state of the AI trade, and the Supreme Court hearings on tariffs starting next week.

Momentum Shock: What Next For Markets? Oct 23, 2025

Show notes

Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: ⁠TMTF Trade Of The Week

Alf and Brent discuss the vicious momentum unwind which took down precious metals and various speculative stock market sectors: what should we expect now? The duo also discusses the upcoming US CPI, and take a step back to assess the big picture macro setup we will likely face for the next 6-9 months.

Gold & Cockroaches Oct 17, 2025

Show notes

Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: TMTF Trade Of The Week

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the massive rally in precious metals: what's behind it? Is it a broad debasement theme or just a big momentum trade? And is Dimon right when he talks about more cockroaches in credit markets?

Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst? Oct 10, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the massive AI-driven rally which is beginning to have strong implications for broader markets and the economy. Brent presents the consensus view from several hedge fund PMs he met in Singapore - are they riding the bubble or afraid it's going to burst soon? And what about bonds, gold, and the USD?

Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next? Sep 06, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the recent NFP print and its implications for markets. They also reflect on the right framework to apply to RSI and options when dealing with asset classes having skewed return distributions.

The Truth Behind Fiscal Dominance Aug 29, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the latest attempt from Trump to gain more control over the Fed, and the implications this might have on multiple asset classes. They also discuss the JPY and the political situation in France.

Run It Hot Hot Hot Aug 23, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the surprising Jackson Hole speech in which Powell opened up to interest rate cuts already in September. Markets are reacting strongly, but the real question is what should we expect if Trump runs the economy hot alongside a dovish Fed in 2026?

Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish? Aug 08, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.

The Tariff Mismatch Theory Aug 01, 2025

Show notes

Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?

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