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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    #204 - Weekly Update: Darth Fed May 24, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob are here to bring balance to the force. They discuss why inflation expectations might be coming unhinged, how the Fed is trying to scare the market with its response, and just how much the Fed doesn’t have under its control. Come for the market/geopolitics talk, but stay for the extended Star Wars metaphors and the advice at the end about why buy&hold might be a strategy of a bygone era.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:01) - Markets Check-In

    (10:45) – Inflation expectations and why consumers are so mad

    (19:14) - Weird wage growth numbers

    (25:43) - Fed response

    (34:50) – Inflation and markets are out of control + volatility clusters

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #203 - Kamran Bokhari: Drinking from the Poison Chalice (fixed) May 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Kamran Bokhari rejoins the podcast to offer insightful perspectives on the apex of the Iranian leviathan. They discuss Ebrahim Raisi’s shocking death, the implications of the future of Iran, and what a post-Khamenei world might look like.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:30) – Khamenei’s successor

    (08:40) – Conspiracy theories about Khamenei's death

    (14:13) – What happens next?

    (25:00) – Weakening of the Supreme Leader

    (36:30) – Chances of an Iranian civil war

    ( 44:42) – Houthis, Gaza, and Jordan

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #202 - Bearish US, Chinese/Indian Equity, Russia's Push, Trump's Mexico Policy and NBA Power Politics May 21, 2024
    Show notes

    Cousin Marko and Jacob are back at it. Marko shares why he’s turned bearish on the US after being “manically” bullish for many moons. They discuss China/India and compare/contrast the equity markets there. A brief discussion on Russia/Ukraine and Europe in general and a cold shower on former President Donald Trump’s threats to Mexico leads into an extended discussion on the NBA – predictions + the rise and fall of great players + the U.S.-led quest to hamper European success in the league. Enjoy, y’all.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:20) – US inflation, market, etc.

    (09:45) – China/India markets and demographics

    (31:00) - Regime risks in the USA

    (32:55) – Europe - Putin's new defense minister, Russia's new push, Slovakia's assassination attempt

    (44:30) – US/Mexico

    (49:46) – Basketball

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #201 - Emergency Episode: Iran’s President is Dead + A Coup in the DRC? May 20, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob takes to the mic for an emergency reaction to the big event everyone is paying attention to from the weekend (Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident) and perhaps the one that is being missed (a failed coup attempt in the DRC).

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:00) - Iran

    (12:36) - Attempted Coup in DRC

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #200 - Tariffs are Taxes (and why you shouldn’t invest in utilities) May 17, 2024
    Show notes

    What better way to celebrate 200 episodes than a Rob-Jacob episode full of important insights. Jacob and Rob talk about some of their best calls of the past few years before turning to the flooding in Brazil, opportunities (and risks) in the U.S. electricity sector, and the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. They also talk about the cognitive bias of investing and financial advisory services.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:53) – Looking back on 200 podcasts

    (12:53) – Cognitive biases in investing

    (22:00) – What's happening in Brazil?

    (30:00) – Why you SHOULDN’T invest in utilities

    (52:50) – U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #199 - How to Avoid a U.S.-China War May 13, 2024
    Show notes

    Dale Copeland joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, “A World Safe for Commerce.” He explains his theory of dynamic realism before pivoting to U.S.-China relations and an impassioned and thoughtful hot-take on why those predicting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan don’t just misunderstand China – they are participating in the realization of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Link to Dale’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Safe-Commerce-Revolution-International/dp/0691172552

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:40) – Multipolar or bipolar world?

    (11:07) – Dynamic Realism explained

    (21:38) – Conditions for Dale’s theory

    (28:17) – U.S./China relations

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Dale’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Safe-Commerce-Revolution-International/dp/0691172552

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #198 - Brazil Under Water May 10, 2024
    Show notes

    Rob is stuck in earnings hell, so you are treated to the dulcet tones of Jacob’s bass voice solo today. Jacob talks about the terrible flooding in Brazil and what it means for the country’s future. He also applies some insights from the disaster to housing insurance in the U.S. and other developed markets. He closes with a few thoughts on cocoa, coffee, and Mexico.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Brazil

    (13:48) – Insurance

    (20:21) – Cocoa and coffee

    (24:37) – Mexico

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #197 - Weekly Update: China, France, and Steel May 03, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob are back at it for their weekly chat. They talk about the latest rumor that the Chinese government will prop up growth rates, explore whether French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitions are realistic, and close with some thoughts on protectionism in steel. NOTE: PLEASE FILL OUT OUR SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (04:00) - Trends in Energy, Jokes

    (07:32) - The Chinese Economy

    (16:48) - US Investors and Economy

    (23:25) – France, Macron, + more

    (41:31) – Steel

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #196 - Sanaa Kamal: A Voice from Gaza Apr 29, 2024
    Show notes

    If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza

    Jacob welcomes Sanaa Kamal, a Gaza-based Palestinian journalist who is currently in Egypt, onto the podcast. Jacob asks Sanaa about how her life has changed since Oct 7th and how she managed to reach Cairo. Sanaa bravely shares her story and her perspective on the ongoing war – and considering everything she has been through, her resilience and optimism in the face of such terrible adversity is admirable and worthy of emulation. A link to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, which she is using to get the rest of her family out of Gaza, is above.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (04:00) – Hell in Gaza

    (16:03) – Escape to Cairo

    (21:50) - What is the state of Palestinian refugees?

    (27:05) – Can there be peace?

    (29:55) - Hamas

    (32:30) - How do we end the current conflict?

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #195 - Weekly Update: “Chaos” at U.S. Universities + Steel Apr 26, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob return for a weekly chat about South Korea’s economy and challenges posed by the Asian economic model. They pivot to a discussion about entrepreneurship and whether it is in decline in the West, discuss steel markets and questionable decision making from large-cap U.S. companies. They close with a discussion of the “chaos” at U.S. universities and draw a different conclusion than you might think.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) – Intro

    (01:00) - Lessons from ROK

    (17:22) – Entrepreneurship

    (35:18) – Steel

    (49:23) – University upheaval

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


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