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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    #184 - Kevin Evans: The Largest Invisible Thing in the World Mar 18, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Kevin Evans to discuss Indonesia – Kevin’s experience in the country over the last three decades, the recent elections and mysterious change in the political mood of the country since 2019, Prabowo and his political ambitions, and the future of the Indonesian economy. They close with some talk about Jakarta and Indonesian food.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:25) - Why Indonesia

    (06:06) – Shadows of authoritarianism

    (14:00) – Prabowo

    (29:25) – Future of the Indonesian economy

    (41:25 – Indonesia-Oz relations

    (44:33) – Jakarta

    (54:02) – What to eat

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #183 - Weekly Update: What is a Doji (and Why Should I Care?) Mar 15, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob are back at it for a marathon episode featuring your favorite segment, microgeopolitics, and extended discussion about technical analysis and why you should be wary of the euphoria in markets right now. They close with some thoughts on the latest (and hot) inflation print, and some notable developments in Ukraine and China.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:54) – Microgeopolitics – WI Dells

    (14:20) – S&P 500 reversal?

    (23:00) – Technical analysis

    (29:50) – Japanese candlesticks

    (47:30) – Inflation

    (58:40) – Ukraine

    (1:06:30) – China

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #182 - Gary Saul Morson: Russian Exceptionalism Mar 11, 2024
    Show notes

    Professor Gary Saul Morson of Northwestern University joins the podcast to discuss his recent article in The New York Review of Books about “Russian exceptionalism.” Gary explains what Eurasianism is, to what extent it motivates the decisions and ideology of the Kremlin, and how to think about the history of Russia’s ideas about the Westin the context of Russia and Ukraine’s futures.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:00) – Eurasianism

    (17:00) – What does Putin think/believe

    (28:06) – Russia’s views of the East/China

    (32:32) - Russian exceptionalism

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Gary’s piece: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #181 - Weekly Update: What If Trump Wins? (Tariff edition) Mar 08, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob is on the road, Rob is on vacation…and still they bring the analytical firepower to you each week! They do a little microgeopolitics on Eden Prairie, MN, before tackling a big, scary question: What happens if Trump wins and actually does what he says he will do in terms of tariffs? They close with a few thoughts on Emmanuel Macron’s spicy week.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:43) – Microgeopolitics (Eden Prairie)

    (11:54) – What if…tariff edition

    (20:30) - Tariff of Abominations History Lesson

    (27:00) – Investment takeaways

    (42:00) - Rejoinders from the Trump administration

    (44:40) – France

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #180 - Matt Gertken: The "Black Swan" Scenarios Mar 04, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA research, onto the show. They reflect on their careers at Stratfor before diving into Matt’s thoughts on the Chinese economy, Taiwan’s future, and “Black Swan” Scenarios investors and analysts should have on their radar in 2024.

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    Pleasant Prairies and A Middle East Update Mar 01, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob is in a spicy mood, coming to you live from Pleasant Prairie WI. He and Rob do another round of “microgeopolitics” on this part of Wisconsin before diving into the Middle East and updating on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That segues into a brief conversation about the future of Europe before Jacob squares off against ChatGPT to find historical analogies to the UAE’s strange $35 billion investment in Egypt.

    See: https://www.emilydickinsonmuseum.org/to-make-a-prairie-1755/

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:50) - Kenosha, WI

    (16:50) – Middle East update

    (40:02) – EU future

    (50:40) – Egypt, the UAE, etc

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    What’s in a name? (North Korea edition) Feb 26, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Rodger back onto the podcast to talk about North Korea’s recent decision to call South Korea by its official name – as well as its abandonment of reunification as its most important geopolitical goal. They explore the potential ramifications of that for North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, before thinking through scenarios for the Korean peninsula in the context of U.S. elections. They close with Rodger’s thoughts on demographics, democratization of military tech, and the Arctic.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:05) - North Korea

    (13:10) – South Korea

    (18:30) – Nuclear proliferation/

    (23:15) – Internal DPRK dynamics

    (29:29) - U.S. election scenarios

    (33:38) – DPRK v ROK war

    (35:47) – Rodger’s macro view

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    The Horseradish Capital of the World Feb 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob hits the road and brings perspectives on geopolitics and markets from the point of view of Eau Claire WI, formerly Sawdust City, home of Bon Iver, the once mighty U.S. tire industry…and the biggest horseradish producer around. Rob and Jacob discuss the U.S. tire industry and the lessons its demise poses for geopolitics and markets, before backing into conversations about China, U.S. trade policy, NVIDIA HYPE, and human capital.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:30)– Eau Claire, WI

    (04:30) – Tires

    (24:15) – China and Mexico

    (30:03) – Trump's U.S. trade policy + semis

    (43:37)– Human capital

    (51:00) – Quick global roundup

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    Making Astrology Respectable Feb 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob take a victory lap on higher-than-expected U.S. inflation. They tackle a listener-submitted question about where Chinese deflation might affect the U.S., and explore the political impact of inflation/deflation and both the U.S. and China. They close with a brief survey of geopolitical risks in the world going unnoticed as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and the Chinese economy crowd out the space for headlines.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:17) - Inflation

    (11:34) - Political Side of Inflation

    (23:57) - Is China in deflation?

    (45:25) - Venezuela x Guyana

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    Extrapolating Doom Feb 09, 2024
    Show notes

    Rob is busy trying to get French citizenship, so favorite-guest Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro joins the podcast to talk U.S. macro, oil and natural gas prices, and how to think about investing in a world of doom & gloom.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:45) – U.S. macro

    (09:26) – Oil

    (20:15) – NatGas

    (27:55) – U.S. v. Intl | Hong Kong/China

    (41:35) – Extrapolating doom: Egypt and Pakistan

    (49:10) – Bitcoin

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


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