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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

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    Latest Episodes:
    Here Be Animal Spirits Aug 15, 2022
    Show notes

    How do inflationary cycles work? Are we in a tech innovation environment or are we just iterating on the same old concepts? Also, what constitutes "old"? Jordi Visser joins us this week to discuss these questions and much, much more (yes, we mean China).

    Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC, a market neutral pioneer of the asset management industry. At Weiss, Jordi oversees the portfolio managers and is responsible for the overall risk aggregation. Additionally, he is the architect and a portfolio manager for the Weiss Alternative Multi-Strategy Fund (Ticker: WEISX).

    Weiss Morning Seeds: https://hubs.la/Q01jhfjY0

    Weiss Insights: https://hubs.la/Q01jhftd0

    Weiss Podcast Page: https://hubs.la/Q01jhgds0

    Timestamps:

    2:20-14:42 – Inflation/Deflation

    14:42-35:50 – Tech/longevity

    35:50-45:38 – mRNA

    45:38-1:03:30 – Energy

    1:03:00 – end – China

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Coffee, Chocolate, China (and Inflation) Aug 12, 2022
    Show notes

    Weekly Update! J&R talk markets, China, the future of South Africa and Brazil, and trends popping up in the coffee and chocolate trade!

    Timestamps:

    2:47-13:30 – U.S. CPI/Market overview

    13:30-22:47 – China update

    22:47-40:17 – South Africa, Brazil, and Strategic Wealth

    40:17 – end – Coffee and Chocolate

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Water We Waiting For? The Decline of Fresh Water Aug 08, 2022
    Show notes

    Peter Mayer discusses the history the Colorado River Basin - and why it's a canary in the coal mine for the waves of water issues already sweeping the globe. Water access conflicts are going to escalate both nationally and internationally as the globe heats and our atmosphere's composition fluctuates. Peter and Jacob dive into the conflicts already occurring, ( eg. the Georgia vs. Florida water wars), the future of agriculture, and how we conserve water for posterity.

    Peter is a professional engineer and urban water expert and the Principal and Founder of Water Demand Management. For more than 25 years, his work has focused on urban water management, water use patterns, assessing the impact of water rate structures and metering, evaluating water conservation measures and programs, forecasting future demand with and without conservation, preparing water conservation plans and conducting water supply scenario analysis.

    Link to Lake Mead pics: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150111/lake-mead-keeps-dropping

    Peter’s website: https://www.waterdm.com/

    TimeStamps

    2:34-30:30 – Colorado River Basin

    30:30-42:30 – Georgia v. Florida on water. (If I could have this on in the background during this section I would.)

    42:30-50:30 – Agriculture

    50:30 – Pete’s past

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Weekly Update: Rising Yen, China Real Estate, and Investing in Nuclear Aug 05, 2022
    Show notes

    This weeks discussion covers the rising Yen, the awkard bubble that constitutes the Chinese real estate market, and what it looks like to invest in nuclear in the 21st century. Hint: Nuclear and Coal have a lot of animosity to overcome between their respective camps.

    Timestamps

    1:12-24:00 – Around the world + China + Taiwan

    24:00-30:50 – The Japanese Yen

    30:50-end – Turning Coal into Nuclear

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    The Art of Geopolitics w/ Stratfor Aug 01, 2022
    Show notes

    Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange.

    Timestamps

    3:00-25:13: Mackinder and the Arctic

    25:13-34:30: The Art of the Net Assessment

    34:30-44:30: The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come

    44:30-56:54: Will China invade Taiwan?

    56:54-end: Around the world: Poland, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil, and more

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Weekly Update: Is China on a Treadmill to Hell? Jul 29, 2022
    Show notes

    Why is no one talking about China's real estate crisis (aside from Rob and Jacob)???

    It's an issue with global ramifications, extremely high stakes for China's economy, and even higher stakes for the 1.4 billion people who live inside the PRC.

    Timestamps

    2:00-13:00 – Markets overview

    13:00 - end – China real estate crisis

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Weekly Update: Markets, Markets, Italy! Jul 22, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob talk US Markets, Investing (as a concept), and Italy's wild new (yet old) future.

    Timestamps

    1:50-14:35 – Rob’s update on U.S. markets/$DHI

    14:35-22:15 – Discipline of Investing

    22:15-41:08 – ECB/Italy

    41:08 - End Technocrats, populists, democrats, oh my!


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.



    Economy, Energy, and The Odds Of a Recession Jul 18, 2022
    Show notes

    Marko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group.

    Timestamps:

    2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy

    14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas

    21:36-35:54 – Europe

    35:54-42:00 – China

    42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia

    50:52-59:11 – India

    59:11-1:10:11 – Food

    1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds

    1:16:31- end: Basketball


    Weekly Update: Euro-Dollar Parity, China lockdowns, and a post-Abe Japan. Jul 15, 2022
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob talk Euro-Dollar Parity, China lockdowns, and a post-Abe Japan.

    Timestamps:

    1:45-26:45 – Europe

    26:45-36:10 – China

    36:10 – end – Japan

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.



    Who's Winning the Ukraine-Russia Conflict? Jul 04, 2022
    Show notes

    Sim Tack revisits the Ukraine-Russia conflict with Jacob to talk about the war as it drags into its later stages.

    Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack

    Timestamps

    4:30-16:45 – Russia-Ukraine War Update

    16:45-19:45 – Grain tangent

    19:45-27:15 – Who is winning? How important is Western support?

    27:15-36:30 – Russia’s military capacity

    36:30-48:45 – The future of NATO

    48:45-56:45 – Talking about Turkey

    56:45-end – Deep strikes

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


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