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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    What's Up With This Market? Oct 07, 2022
    Show notes

    This market is absolutely wild, with the Fed trying to be both proactive and reactive simultaneously, and the lads try to tackle the underlying reasons + the future. Also China's role in the markets (and their drought), the politics surrounding Saudi Arabia's strange move on Oil this week, and much more!

    Timestamps:

    0:08-16:40 – U.S. Macro Overview

    16:40 - 25:30 – China

    25:30 - 45:00 – Saudi Arabia/Oil

    45:00 - End – Brazil

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Agricultural Currents: Food Prices, Fertilizer, & The Future Oct 03, 2022
    Show notes

    Neil Townsend hops back onto the pod to discuss the underlying agricultural currents shifting beneath the surface of our geopolitical landscape.

    Food and fertilizer prices are up, Brazil and China are facing epic droughts, and the future of food production globally is uncertain.

    Is this news? No. Are there technological and economic innovations that are drastically changing our ability to cope with these issues? Tune in to find out!

    Neil Townsend is the Chief Market Analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions and GrainFox

    Farmlink Solutions Event on Oct 13: https://www.farmlinksolutions.ca/frombintobank/

    Timestamps

    1:40-8:25 – Global food prices

    8:25-23:18 – Fertilizer & Russia/Ukraine War

    23:18-32.55 – Brazil/USD

    32:55-44:04 – China

    44:04-1:17:00 – Future of agriculture

    1:17:00-end – Key takeaways

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Cutting the Red Tape: US Infrastructure, Pipeline Mysteries, & China Sep 30, 2022
    Show notes

    Why do we have 700 gigawatts (total US electricity capacity is currently 1,150GW) of solar capacity awaiting permits, approval, or connection to the US power grid? What does the future of US infrastructure look like?

    Is the Nord Stream Pipeline being sabotaged? Who would benefit from that?

    Chairman Xi is on the brink of declaring himself lifetime leader of the Communist Party; what does that mean for the Chinese political experiment?

    Timestamps

    1:25 - 9:20 – USA

    9:00 - 33:30 – Pipeline Mysteries

    33:30 - end – China

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Can We Realistically Tame Inflation? Sep 23, 2022
    Show notes

    The Euro is below parity with the dollar and Japan's government intervened with the yen for the first time in a number of decades. Join Rob and Jacob as they talk through inflation woes, Europe's inevitable gains, and much more!

    Timestamps:

    1:05-13:00 – U.S. Inflation

    13:00-23:00 – Still bullish Europe

    23:00-36:00 – Turkey/Iran/Uzbekistan

    36:00-49:56 – Japan

    50:00- end – Brazil

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Ukraine Is Winning Sep 19, 2022
    Show notes

    Ukraine’s counteroffensive last week was shockingly effective. Sim rejoins the show to explain what is happening on the ground…and to tease out the chances and attendant implications of a Russian defeat.

    Sim Tack is Military Analyst at Force Analysis and GEOINT Analyst at AllSource Analysis. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack.

    NYTimes article referenced here

    TimeStamps:

    1:54-11:15 – What’s happening?

    11:15-23:35 – Ukraine’s Strategy

    23:35-28:04 – Europe’s Resolve

    28:04-42:10 – Russia’s Options

    42:10-end – Implications of Russia’s Defeat


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Emotion, Objectivity, and Investing Sep 16, 2022
    Show notes

    We tackle inflation, Ukraine, Long Europe and... emotional investing?

    Jacob and Rob meander into some larger and more philosophical questions about their abilities to distance themselves from the emotional impact of being entangled in the markets. Investment decisions have real life impacts on real people, and disentangling yourself from the emotional impact can be a tenuous or even painful.

    Timestamps:

    1:15-18:31 – Inflation

    18:31-32:30 – Ukraine

    32:30-38:54 – Psychology of Analysis

    38:54-53:22 – Long Europe

    53:22–end – Wait... Brazil is booming?

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Return of the Pod! Sep 09, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob is back! The markets went nowhere (and everywhere, depending on how you look at it)!

    Hop back in to hear Jacob and Rob run through:

    Market Overview - 1:40-9:15

    We like Europe - 9:15-19:20

    China/Japan, Yuan/Yen - 19:20-32:20

    Chile, Copper, U.S., Energy Transition - 32:20-47:55

    Pakistan + India - 47:55-end

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Geopolitics and Cyberwarfare (+ Bitcoin Neutrality) Aug 29, 2022
    Show notes

    Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere, breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity.

    Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.

    Timestamps:

    1:37 - 20:20 - Cyberwarfare

    20:20 - 28:00- 5G + China + Huawei

    28:00 - 34:44 - Trust Networks

    34:30 - 45:35 - Has there every been a full-on cyber war?

    45:35 - End - Let's talk bitcoin!


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Whose Fault Is It Anyway? The Sino-Australian Breakup Aug 22, 2022
    Show notes

    Take some time with us to explore the Sino-Australian breakup drama and hear an honest opinion from a real life Australian (his name is John Fowler and he's a former Australian diplomat and international lawyer) on why relations between the two are slowly but surely deteriorating. John and Jacob also talk AUS/NZ relations, viewpoints on the South Pacific and much, much, much more.

    John is co-founder and CEO of International Intrigue, a newsletter at the intersection of geopolitics, business, and technology. We've included a link because you should go subscribe to it.

    TimeStamps:

    2:30-19:37 – Australia/China relations

    19:37-25:20 – Australia/New Zealand relations

    25:20-39:32 – The South Pacific

    39:32-46:30 – Indonesia

    46:30-57:57 – Latin America/France/Antarctica

    57:59-1:05:30 – Taiwan

    1:05:30 – International Intrigue

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Uncertain Fed, Certain PBC? Aug 19, 2022
    Show notes

    Weekly Update! Catch this week's convo on:

    • The uncertainty spilling out of the Federal Reserve (1:35 - 14:40)
    • China's economy (14:40 - 20:00)
    • Latin American Markets (20:00 - 24:40)
    • Japan Rising (24:40 - 31:20)
    • Europe's Energy Crisis/Opportunity (31:20 - End)

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


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