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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

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    Latest Episodes:
    Bernie Madoff, Elizabeth Holmes... Sam Bankman-Fried? Nov 18, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob tackle the FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried debacle, before turning to China’s struggles (and whether Xi Jinping is up to them), as well as thoughts on U.S. Fed and ECB monetary policies…with historical allusions back to the interwar period of the 20th century.

    1:42-27:30 – Crypto/FTX/SBF

    27:30-45:53 – China

    45:53-end: The Fed v. the ECB; the U.S. as the UK


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Predicting the Weather in 2023 Nov 14, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob is joined by Daryl Ritchison, Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network at NDSU, to discuss how the weather will look in the world in the year ahead. They start with some broad thoughts about the pitfalls of predicting the weather, before checking in on the U.S, Canada, Mexico, South America, Europe, and China and what weather has in store in the year ahead.

    Timestamps:

    2:10–10:10 – How to think about weather

    10:10-21:30 – La Nina and Hurricane Season

    21:30-31:47– Europe

    31:47-36:41 – USA

    36:41-39:38 – Mexico + Canada

    39:38 - 43:40 – South America

    43:40 – 49:37 – China and Asia in general

    49:37 – end – Thoughts on climate change

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    What you missed while the world obsessed over U.S. CPI. Nov 11, 2022
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob briefly address the weaker-than-expected inflation print before attending to developments you might have missed amidst all the U.S. inflation and election news: more economic trouble in China, optimism in Europe and Brazil…and a potential canary in the coal mind at the end of the episode.

    Timestamps:

    1:30-6:37 – U.S. Inflation Reaction

    6:37-24:55 – China/Japan

    25:00-33:40 – Multipolar Trade

    933:40-44:10 – Europe

    44:10–End – Canary in the coal mine


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    How Much Longer Can Russia Hold On? Nov 07, 2022
    Show notes

    Marko Papic is back to talk about the markets, Russia's big fudge on oil (and war), and a little bit of everything else geopolitical! Stick around for some basketball talk after 1:04:10!

    TimeStamps:

    3:12 - 23:34 - Markets Update

    23:30 - 39:30 - Oil, Europe, UAE, Russia

    39:30 - 52:20 - Ukraine, Russia, The Future

    52:20 - 1:04:10 - Over-Under

    1:04:10 - End Basketball

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Russian Weakness, U.S.-China Divergences, Turkey’s Risks, and Bullish Brazil Nov 04, 2022
    Show notes

    After a 2-week hiatus due to COVID and travel, Rob and Jacob are back at it. They explore Russia’s brief exit from the Black Sea grain deal, discuss how China and the U.S. economies are going in opposite directions, explore short-term risks and long-term opportunity in Turkey, before closing with bullish thoughts on Brazil post-election.

    Timestamps:

    2:00-15:43 – Who wins if Russia is weak?

    16:00-43:46 – U.S. booming, China on its knees

    43:46-58:53 – Turkey: The Good, Bad, and the Ugly

    58:53–end – Why we love Brazil

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Will Europe Survive the Winter? Oct 31, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Dave Ripplinger on the podcast to discuss the problems Europe is facing this winter and the areas they agree and disagree. They also talk about the U.S. energy economy, the role of biofuels and renewable diesel in the U.S. energy transition, and close with some broad thoughts about the future of U.S. agriculture for the remainder of the decade.

    David Ripplinger is Assistant Professor at the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics and the Chair of the Bioenergy Products and Innovation Center at North Dakota State University.

    Timestamps:

    3:00-24:50 – Debating Europe’s winter

    24:50-40:10 – Will the U.S. continue to export energy

    40:10-54:20 – Biofuels and renewable diesel

    54:20-end – Should you buy farmland today?

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Stratfor: Musings on Autocracies, Democracies and Resilience Oct 29, 2022
    Show notes

    This is a crossposted episode from the Rane Podcast Series with Stratfor!

    Rodger Baker, executive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE, and Jacob discuss the practice of applied geopolitics in the context of Russia's war with Ukraine, Putin's efforts to leverage energy supplies against Europe, and China's 20th Party Congress (among other asides).

    The original episode is here.

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Recording On The Road -- Mini Solo Episode From Dublin Oct 21, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob plugs in from Dublin, Ireland, where he is currently at a Barnett-Hall conference discussing the crazy year in geopolitics -- and where we can expect to go from here.

    • 0:36-9:00 – The next 5 years
    • 9:00-12:15 – The UK
    • 12:15- 17:00 – Ireland
    • 17:00 - end – China

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Taking Stock Oct 14, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob take a step back from yet another crazy week in geopolitics and have a theoretical and wide-ranging conversation about the state of the world, how to deal with uncertainty and volatility, and whether we should be optimistic about the next 6-12 months and beyond.

    Timestamps -


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Making Sense of Iranian Unrest Oct 10, 2022
    Show notes

    Abdolrasool Divsallar (Farzam, if you will) joins us again, after well over a year, to discuss the growing unrest in Iran. Farzam is a visiting profesor at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.

    Twitter: https://twitter.com/Divsallar

    Timestamps

    0:00-9:30 – Why these Iranian protests are different

    9:30-16:00 – What’s up with the Supreme Leader?

    16:00-20:46 – Regional response

    31:28-48:30 – the Iran Nuclear Deal/relations with Russia

    48:30-end – Turkey

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Previous 1 31 32 33 34 35 Next

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