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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

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    Latest Episodes:
    A Tumultuous Chinese Future Jan 02, 2023
    Show notes

    What does the immediate future of China look like?

    Is China a threat to the US dominance of markets and military?

    John Minnich and Jacob Shapiro talk about the future of the PRC, how China and the US stack up against one another in a multi-polar world, China's struggles in the tech industry, and their ever-looming presence in neighboring countries.

    John Minnich is a PhD candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics at MIT

    Timestamps:

    1:40-10:50 – China 2023

    10:50 - 27:10 – Is China a threat to the U.S.?

    27:10 – 35:02 – China Chips/AI

    35:02-49:22 – Chinese technology transfer policy

    49:22 – end – South Korea? Taiwan? Japan?

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Looking Ahead at 2023 Dec 23, 2022
    Show notes

    What's coming for 2023? Obviously, we can't predict the future - but we can make some educated guesses about what's to come. Are we moving towards a unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar global system? Global monetary policy is moving in some novel (yet still stale) directions, globalization is evolving as geopolitics shapes international relations, and somehow Russia is still grinding away at Ukraine. Tune in for some interesting surprises

    Timestamps:

    0:00-4:43 – Intro

    4:43 - 17:26 – The Bank of Japan’s surprise

    17:26-end – Looking back at 2022 and a head 2023


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    The End of The Iranian Regime Dec 19, 2022
    Show notes

    Kamran rejoins the show without much optimism to offer – for Iran, for Pakistan, or for much of the Muslim world. Central Asia, however, might be the silver lining.

    Timestamps:

    1:22 - 32:20 – Iran

    32:20 - 39:10 – Turkey

    39:10 – 52:40 Islam/Pakistan

    52:40 – end – Any optimism?

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    What the Heck is Happening in China? Dec 16, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob discuss the latest developments in geopolitics and markets. They dissect the U.S. inflation print before discussing why the euro is at a critical moment, why no one should be certain about China going into 2023, and some peripheral risks that aren’t being focused on enough. They also discuss Jacob’s savant-level soccer predictions.

    Timestamps:

    2:00-12:05 – U.S. Macro

    12:05-20:10 – Pivotal moment for Europe

    20:10-40:29 – China is confusing

    40:14–48:20 – Canary in Southeast Asia

    48:20-end – Grains + Argentina

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    A Breakdown of Peru's Failed Coup Dec 10, 2022
    Show notes

    Elohim Monard joins Jacob for an emergency podcast to discuss the “dumbest coup attempt in history.” They discuss what happened this week in Peru, why it happened, and what it means for the future.

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    The Not-So-Sick Man of the Euro Dec 09, 2022
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob break down false narratives on U.S. macro and on German de-industrialization before taking a trip around the world and looking at key issues in the EU-Hungary conflict, and China’s COVID-19 and real estate problems. They close with some optimism about Japan and ways of thinking about demographics and globalization in a rapidly changing world.

    Timestamps:

    1:22 - 10:40 - False Narratives in Macro

    10:40 - 23:00 - German De-Industrialization

    23:00 - 36:26 - Hungary's Bad Bets

    36:26 - 43:00 - China's COVID-19 & Real Estate Problems

    43:00 - End - Japan


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Talking Ag and Dairy with Dan Basse Dec 05, 2022
    Show notes

    Dan Basse and Jacob sit down in person to talk about the world, markets, and, of course, agriculture!

    Dan Basse is President of AgResource and a fantastic guest! https://agresource.com/about/

    Timestamps

    2:00 – 14:00 – Recapping presentations at PDPW

    14:00-26:00 – Peak U.S. Farmland/2023 Predictions/Russia-Ukraine

    24:00 – end: Why people underestimate Brazil + thoughts on Mexico

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    Tiananmen 2.0? Dec 02, 2022
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob gather for their weekly chat and discuss the protests in China and what is being missed about them. They then discuss the quietly deteriorating trade relationship between the U.S. and EU before focusing in on developments in Latin America, especially the problems in Mercosur and how Brazil may or may not capitalize.

    Timestamps

    1:15-20:15 – China

    20:15-30:00 – U.S.-EU relations

    30:00 – end: Latin America + multipolarity

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    A Polish Perspective on War - The Rise of the Intermarium? Nov 23, 2022
    Show notes

    Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future.

    Jacob welcomes Jacek back onto Cognitive Dissidents to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. They discuss several critical issues, including 1) Who fired the missile that landed in Poland and killed 2 people? 2) Will Germany stand up for Ukraine in the long-run? 3) Is the world headed towards a U.S.-China rivalry.

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


    A Global CapEx Supercycle? Nov 21, 2022
    Show notes

    Mike Edwards is Deputy CIO at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers.

    Jacob and Mike discuss China headlines briefly before diving into the main topic: whether the Chinese Communist Party can encourage alternatives to property as an investment vehicle in China. From there they touch on Japan briefly before concluding with some bullish thoughts on Europe.

    Timestamps:

    1:13-7:33 – China COVID Reopening

    7:33-15:26 – G-20 Thoughts

    15:26-32:13 – China’s Property Crisis

    32:30-38:50 – Japan

    38:50–end – Europe

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.


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