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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    What is Nuclear Fusion and Why Does It Matter So Much Feb 06, 2023
    Show notes

    Myles Stapelberg, a graduate student at MIT in the Plasma Science and Fusion Center and a member of CI’s new Innovation Advisory Board, joins the podcast to give us a primer on nuclear fusion. This will be the first of a few appearances for Myles – in this initial episode, Jacob peppers Myles with questions to understand the basics of nuclear fusion – what it is, why it is important, and how soon it might be till it matters in our own lives?

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (4:00) - What is nuclear fusion?

    (11:30) - Why is nuclear fusion Important for the future of humans?

    (24:15) - What are the different ways to achieve fusion?

    (30:00) - What are the safeguards in place to stop runaway fusion?

    (36:00) - Why was this recent breakthrough so important?

    (43:50) - What is the timeline for nuclear fusion?

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Asynchronous Waves Feb 03, 2023
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob start off with a general overview of this previous week in macro, then turn to what might be in store for the future. Afterwards, they turn to the Biden administration's choice to float a larger military presence around the Philippines, breaking down their deter China and unsubtly escalating the US-China trade war. Simultaneously, India is starting to align with the US more deeply across supply chains and mutual beneficial agreements - leading Jacob to ask some serious questions about their commitment to non-alignment. Peru is still on quite shaky ground politically, so copper is obviously in the same place, and they take a deep dive into the most important unobserved Central American copper hub. Finally, Rob lets us in on Mexico's stock market bonanza, and the political reasons that underlie it all. Tune in to find out more!

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (2:10) - Global Macro Rundown

    (13:00) - The Philippines

    (19:00) - The US-China Trade War

    (25:40) - India-US Relations

    (30:30)– Peru + Copper + Oil

    (37:23) - Copper + China Reopening

    (40:00) - Important/Unimportant News Stories

    (41:20) - Mexican Stocks + Next Presidents + Cartels

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    US-China Relations with David Firestein Jan 30, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob is joined by David Firetsein, inaugural president and CEO of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. They discuss David’s professional background and the work of the foundation before diving into trust in the U.S.-China relationship and prospects for the bilateral in the year ahead.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Introduction

    (2:40) – David’s background

    (10:00) – George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S. China Relations

    (21:27) – Trust in the U.S.-China Relationship

    (45:34) – The year ahead in U.S.-China relations

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced:

    Link to David’s recent article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42533-022-00117-y

    Link to George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations: https://bushchinafoundation.org/

    David’s bio: https://bushchinafoundation.org/people/david-j-firestein/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Peru Crisis + The Many Lefts of Latin America Jan 27, 2023
    Show notes

    Elohim Monard rejoins the podcast and pinch-hits for Rob’s usually weekly slot to address the ongoing and escalating deterioration of political stability in Peru. Elohim offers insightful perspective about what would happen if Boluarte resigned and shares disturbing allegations of terrorism and Bolivian involvement in the protests that have been circulating in Peru and that may set the stage for a military coup. From there, they take a brief tour of the other major countries of Latin America and how they are doing – and how the fate of the region may ultimately be in Brazil and Mexico’s hands.

    --

    Timestamps:

    1:30-28:00 – Peru

    28:00-39:00 – Brazil

    39:00-45:10 – Colombia

    45:10-51:46 – Chile

    51:46-end – Mexico/Argentina

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    What is the Future of the EU? Jan 23, 2023
    Show notes

    Dario Fabbri comes back to the CD pod to talk with Jacob about the future of the European Union, Russia/China, and the political instability rocking Latin America.

    Italy, Germany, and France are all dealing with the War in Ukraine differently, and their responses will have a ripple effect that moves far beyond the conflict. Is this a pivotal year for the EU? Structural changes to both industry and geopolitical policy are shifting the foundation of Europe into a new paradigm but... What does that mean? Find out by giving us a listen!

    Dario Fabbri is a geopolitical analyst based in Italy. He is Director of the monthly magazine Domino and a columnist at Domani.

    --

    Timestamps:

    1:36-20:30 – Italian domestic politics, relations with France/Germany

    20:30-30:00 – Future of the EU

    30:00-42:40 – Russia and China

    42:40-end – Brazil/democracy

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    Dario's writing: https://choramedia.com/podcast/stati-di-tensione/

    Dario's podcast: https://choramedia.com/podcast/stati-di-tensione/

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Dealing with Uncertainty Jan 20, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob get a little introspective this week, using developments in China and Vietnam to talk about how to think about the world and the struggle between having too much information and how to make sense of it all. Along the way they discuss uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing protests in Peru, and why people are getting the Bank of Japan so wrong.

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Referenced In The Show:

    Timestamps:

    1:00 – 3:48 – Bank of Japan

    3:48 – 24:29 – China reopening/narratives tangent

    24:29-38:52 – Vietnam/intelligence tangent

    38:52 – 48:00 – Eurasia

    48:00 – end – Peru

    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Geopolitics of Macro in 2023 Jan 16, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob is joined by Alf and Andreas of The Macro Trading Floor to discuss the increasingly intersecting worlds of macro and geopolitics in 2023. Alf and Andreas offer differing perspective about the future of Europe, before turning to questions around how to play China’s re-opening and what the effects of a recession in the U.S. will be on U.S. equity performance.

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Macro Trading Floor podcast: Here

    Alfonso Peccatiello’s website: Here

    Andreas Steno Larsen’s website: Here


    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Referenced In The Show:

    Timestamps:

    2:00-13:00 – Geopolitics and investing/gold?

    13:00-35:00 – Europe

    35:00-45:00 – China/copper

    45:00-end – U.S. v Intl equity performance in 2023


    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Geopolitics of Metals + Shorting the Euro Jan 13, 2023
    Show notes

    We're usually pretty bullish on the EU, but this week some interesting data points were released that made us rethink our usual Euro decisions. Jacob and Rob take some time to break down the data behind their decision to short the Euro, then move southwest to Latin America where commodities seem to be ignoring the wild political strife and flying to the moon. Finally, heading over to the Middle East and Asia, R & J tackle Iran's strange outbursts and try to gauge whether India is actually able to do what it says.

    Timestamps:

    1:17-21:35 – Shorting the euro

    21:35-36:10 – Peru/Panama/Copper/Nationalization

    36:10-42:22

    42:22-end – Iran and India


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

    The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)

    Cognitive Investments


    Analysis: Brazilian Capitol Riots Jan 09, 2023
    Show notes
    1. What led to the Capital Riots on January 8th situation?
    2. Is there a significant threat to Democracy inside of Brazil?
    3. Will there be significant geopolitical fallout for Brazil's neighbors?
    4. What will Brazil's domestic fallout look like?
    5. How will this affect global markets or long positions in the Brazilian market?

    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

    The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)

    Cognitive Investments


    A Deceptively Quiet Start To 2023 Jan 06, 2023
    Show notes

    2023 has started off with a fairly subdued international news cycle... but the world hasn't stopped turning. So, what's lurking beneath the surface? What are we missing (besides Kevin McCarthy's humiliation at the hands of his own party)?

    Tune in to hear the latest updates on everything going on outside of our little bubble - across Europe, Asia, Latin America and the food markets!

    Timestamps:

    0:00-7:26 – Europe

    7:26-18:53 – Japan

    18:53 – 23:06 – China

    23:06 – 36:15 – Copper

    36:15 – 50:45 – Soybeans

    50:45 – end – Latin American/Mexico


    Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here.

    The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter)

    Cognitive Investments


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