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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    Understanding Ransomware as a Service (RaaS) Apr 17, 2023
    Show notes

    Matt Pines rejoins the podcast to talk cybersecurity basics, including the overlooked importance of non-state actors and how that can affect near-shoring. From there, Matt and Jacob explore what changing technology can mean in a more geopolitical world, especially as it relates to Artificial Intelligence, before talking about aliens. Yup, aliens. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity.

    Survey: https://forms.gle/NZs3sAZFoahxzycH6

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (2:00) - TikTok and Cybersecurity Basics

    (9:00) - Near-shoring Pitfalls

    (16:13) - Chinese Hardware Vulnerabilities

    (22:40) - Which Countries are Safest from Chinese Ransomware?

    (25:13) - New Frontiers for Threat Actors

    (31:16) - Everyone is Networked, Everyone is at Risk

    (42:06) - Is Privacy a Dead?

    (49:08) - Aliens :)

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Immaculate Disinflation Apr 07, 2023
    Show notes

    Rob is on vacation this week, but the pod never rests! Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro Research and Bulwark Capital pinch hits for Rob. Jacob and Chase talk about the latest developments in the U.S. banking sector before turning to commodities, especially oil and gas, to try and figure out where prices may be going in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s surprising production cut earlier this week. They close with some spicy NBA finals predictions.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (1:50) - Banking crisis/Chase’s macro view

    (15:43) - Who said something about Oil? You cookin’?

    (34:25) - Commodity supercycle

    (43:29) – Natural Gas

    (51:05) - Basketball

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Prisoners To Nearby Prices - The Biggest Issues Facing Farmers in '23-'24 Apr 03, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes back Neil Townsend ahead of the GrainFox “Before You Grow” Event, where Neil and Jacob are both speaking. Together, Neil and Jacob try to look beyond recent headlines and identify the biggest issues affecting farmers in 2023/24 as well as discussing trends in land values and food consumption. They discuss whether farmers should expect a “war premium” to return to grain prices and their conclusion about where that war premium is likely to show up in the market may surprise you. They close with a conversation about China and why this might be a good year for exports to the Middle Kingdom.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (2:11) - Biggest Issues For Farmers in 2023/24

    (8:50) - Local Farming Geopolitics

    (14:32) - Consumer Food Prices

    (20:00) – A “war premium” for grain prices and what that really means

    (29:23) - China and Rural Farming

    (32:44) - Russia's Grain Power

    (41:30) – China and Ag

    --

    Link to GrainFox Event: https://events.grainfox.ca/2023-before-you-grow

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Thriving In a Volatile Macro Environment Mar 31, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob take a step back and question some of their previous optimism about U.S. growth and the Chinese re-opening. They discuss the role of China in the global economy and wrestle with what China’s data does or doesn’t tell us about prospects for international growth and the potential impact on emerging markets and the dollar. From there, they turn to surprisingly high inflation figures in Europe before closing with extended thoughts on Brazil and Indonesia – and why they might fit the profile of countries capable of thriving in a volatile and uncertain macro environment.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    2:30 – U.S. Macro

    7:50 – China Macro

    22:06 – Inflation in Europe

    27:30 – Brazil and Indonesia

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Emergency Episode: The Future of Israel Mar 28, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob tackles the historic protests in Israel head-on and offers a sober take on the future of the Jewish state.

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Is Turkey Still a Democracy? (Fixed Audio) Mar 27, 2023
    Show notes

    The answer might surprise you. Emre Dogru joins the show for the first time to discuss the economic and political impact of February’s tragic earthquake before turning to Turkey’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and why he remains relatively optimistic about Turkish resilience in the long-term. Emre and Jacob close by discussing what might really change from a policy perspective no matter who wins the elections and prospects for investing going forward.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (2:34) – Econ + political impact of the earthquake

    (15:50) – Turkey’s upcoming elections

    (38:00) – Policy changes and investment implications

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

    --

    Timestamps:

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Inflation’s Much Exaggerated Demise + The Power of Soft Power Mar 24, 2023
    Show notes

    It has been a deceptively quiet week in markets and geopolitics. Rob and Jacob give you the sober update you need on the SVB crisis and why they are more worried about other things, like corporate debt and a private equity bubble. From there, they tackle the big China-Russia meeting this week and engage in a wide-ranging conversation about whether China has “soft power” and whether China’s future is necessarily authoritarian.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (2:11) - Market Update

    (14:48) – How to think about debt

    (28:05) – The Xi-Putin visit and the future of China

    (36:48) - Soft Power

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    What is GPT, Why Should I Care? + The Future of Energy and Crypto Mar 20, 2023
    Show notes

    Futurist and friend Garry Golden joins the podcast for a repeat appearance with an eye on how fundamental changes in technology will shape the coming decades. This is a conversation with a wide angle lens and a very long-term horizon: Jacob and Garry explore the future of energy (and debate biofuels v. hydrogen), discuss the current state of play in crypto and what the future holds for blockchain, before turning to a very introductory discussion of generative artificial intelligence and why Jacob should probably start using ChatGPT as a tool for his analysis.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (2:36) – The future of energy

    (26:06) – The future of crypto

    (43:11) – What is GPT, Why Should I Care?

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Spotting the Next SVB - 2024 and Beyond Mar 17, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob discuss what happened at Silicon Valley Bank – and why CI knew there was trouble in Silicon Valley as far back as May 2022. Rather than pat themselves on the back too much, Rob and Jacob talk about the importance of focusing on the right information and explain some of the things that they are focused on today that might be the Silicon Valley Bank stories of 2024 and beyond. They close with some thoughts on whether SVB will have any contagion in Europe before making a defense of deep generalists against over-specialization.

    Jacob's email is jacob@cognitive.investments

    --

    Timestamps:

    (3:43)– What happened at SVB?

    (12:10) – How we knew something was wrong in 2022

    (31:30) – What we are focused on in the future

    (36:38) – What about Credit Suisse and Europe?

    (41:53) - In Defense of Generalists

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Genuine Partnership or PR Blitz? - The Normalization of Saudi/Iranian Relations Mar 15, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast for an emergency discussion on the normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations announced in China last week. They discuss the interests of all the different players and analyze what to take seriously – and what is just a PR moment. From there, they look at how different countries in the region will see the deal, including Israel, Turkey, and India. After a brief dive into the evolution of the Saudi nation state, they close with thoughts on Kamran’s prediction from December that the end of the Iranian regime is nigh.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (1:49) – The Saudi-Iranian-Chinese agreement.

    (30:20) – Turkey’s view + a brief aside on the evolution of Saudi Arabia

    (47:28) – The role of India

    52:00 – The future of Iran

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


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