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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    A Dagger Pointed at the Heart of Antarctica Jun 19, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob is joined by Reuben Steff to offer a fresh perspective on New Zealand’s geopolitics. They trace the history of New Zealand-U.S. relations, explore New Zealand’s trade dependence on China, share some thoughts on whether or not New Zealand will join AUKUS, and close on Jacinda Ardern’s legacy.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (03:20) - Why does NZ care about the rest of the world?

    (08:27) - Brief history of NZ foreign policy

    (14:18) - NZ Security Policy

    (23:10) - US/China Detente

    (26:04) - The South Pacific

    (34:20) - Resources of the South Pacific

    (35:33) - Indonesia

    (38:30) - AUKUS

    (47:30) - Jacinda’s Legacy

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Russian Cascade - RealAgriculture Crosspost Jun 16, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob sits down with RealAgriculture's Shaun Haney to discuss the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They walk through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, food prices, Ukraine's escalating counteroffensive, and China's lowkey efforts to arm Russia. Shaun and Jacob will be chatting once a month about the intersections of geopolitics and agriculture, with crossposts across all of our channels!

    Check out RealAg here - https://www.realagriculture.com/

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Move Over, Big Oil – Here Comes Big Shovel Jun 12, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Tomás Villalón Jr. on the podcast to talk about the geopolitics of metals. Tomás is on CI’s Innovation Advisory Board in addition to being CTO & Co-Founder at Phoenix Tailings – which means he will be a repeat guest. In this episode, Jacob and Tomás talk about the geopolitics of metals from the highest levels, setting the stage for future episodes on supply chain disruptions, technological developments, and the future of mining…which for better and for worse is the bedrock of human civilization.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (05:42) - Geopolitics of Mining

    (13:30) - Comparing energy and mining?

    (15:50) - Future of metals

    (17:25) - Will steel continue to be the centerpiece of industrialization?

    (18:10) - What minerals are important and why?

    (24:10) - Does the US have the capabilities to nearshore our minerals?

    (28:30) - Energy supply and security

    (31:08) - Grid Reliability

    (34:00) - Private/Public partnerships in Big Shovel

    (37:00) - Scarcity and Demand

    (40:00) - Copper Futures, can we make the shift?

    (45:00) - Leaders in copper development

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Forecast Revisited Jun 09, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an optimist more unbridled than he.

    Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:24) - Iran-U.S. deal?

    (17:43) – H1 2023 Forecast Recap

    (33:20) – H2 2023 Forecast

    (33:52) - Rob's Predictions

    (37:18) - Jacob's Predictions

    (43:00) - China, Local Government and Debt

    (47:45) - Rob the Doomsayer (on China)

    (51:03) – The illusion of moral decline

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Sucker’s Game Jun 05, 2023
    Show notes

    Cousin Marko rejoins the podcast at long last! Jacob and Marko start off with a rousing disagreement on the Russia-Ukraine war and its import on global geopolitics and markets. From there, they throw shade at wanna be geopolitical analysts who spend too much time pontificating about risk premiums rather than using geopolitics to find opportunities. After a brief discussion of Indonesia as an example of an opportunity, they offer their signature, cutting-edge basketball commentary.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:00) – Disagreement about Ukraine/Russian Offensive

    (28:41) - Russia's Revolutionary History

    (32:10) - Geopolitical Risk/Opportunity Premiums

    (24:40) - European Futures

    (42:09) - Ireland is Shining

    (45:22) – Indonesia

    (50:16) - Basketball

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?? Jun 02, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Introduction

    (02:15) - Strategic Wealth

    (14:00) - Brazil

    (22:30) - Spotting Bad Analysis

    (27:10) - Turkey and Indonesia

    (32:07) - Speculation and Strategy

    (37:14) - Economics is Always Wrong

    (39:16) - The Importance of Qualitative Analysis

    (45:10) - Poland

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Debate: The Future of Turkey’s Economy May 31, 2023
    Show notes

    Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:30) - Election results analysis

    (14:00) - Future of Turkish economy

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    No Cappuccinos After 11:30 May 29, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets.

    You can find more of Alf’s work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro

    (20:09) – Is China investable?

    (27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania

    (37:48) – Japan

    (43:44) – Indonesia

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Failed Breakout May 26, 2023
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob talk about a decisive week in equity markets and what it means for equity prices. They explore the “AI bubble” and how to separate signal from noise. From there, they turn to China to discuss unemployment and local government debt issues in the Chinese economy and why the grand reopening narrative has and will continue to be wrong. They close with discussing countries/cities at the center of changing geopolitical circumstances – Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Ireland – and why Ireland might be a geopolitical winner for the first time in its long and luckless history.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:06) - Failed breakout + artificial intelligence bubble

    (11:30) – China's Unhealthy Economy

    (19:26) - What might China do if they start to freak out?

    (27:28) - Hong Kong

    36:30 - Long Ireland, Short UK

    --

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Preparing for Ukraine’s Counter Offensive May 24, 2023
    Show notes

    Fan-favorite Sim Tack comes back onto the show to discuss the key issues to watch ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Sim and Jacob break down the status of the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and explore the politics of support for Ukraine and how much time Ukraine has to defeat Russia. Bonus tangents on whether China will invade Taiwan and why you should care that the Sahel, a desert-region of Africa, is seething with instability and violence.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (11:20) – Where is Ukraine’s counteroffensive?

    (24:05) – What are Ukraine’s objectives?

    (30:32) – What is the state of Russia’s military?

    (42:18) – Germany/EU/UK/EU/China views

    (44:27) – Taiwan tangent

    (46:07) – December 31st, 2023

    (55:05) – The Sahel (conflicts you aren't paying attention to)

    --

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


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