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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    Committing Geopolitical Suicide May 22, 2023
    Show notes

    Kamran Bokhari of The New Lines Institute rejoins the show to offer insights on the deterioration of political stability in Pakistan…and why the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. From there, Jacob and Kamran train their sights on the South Caucasus, an underappreciated part of the world that is experiencing significant change due to geopolitical competition between Azerbaijan and Iran. They close with a few parting thoughts on Turkey’s recent presidential and parliamentary elections.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (03:00) - Pakistan and Imran Khan

    (34:00) – Pakistan

    (36:46) – South Caucasus

    (56:02) – end – Turkey

    --

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Thailand Election Analysis May 20, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:20) - Election Results

    (07:00) - Thai history

    (20:00) – What does the opposition stand for?

    (25:40) – Geopolitical implications

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Geopolitical Flux -> Market Turbulence May 18, 2023
    Show notes

    It’s been a wild week in geopolitics and markets, but Jacob and Rob have got you covered. They discuss the slew of developments this week for the first part of the podcast, before diving deeper into the instability in Pakistan, global food prices, South America, and Germany’s commitment to Ukraine.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:00) - Markets/geopolitics overview

    (24:55) - Pakistan + Global food prices

    (41:53) – Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador

    (55:36) – Don’t sleep on Germany

    --

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Turkey’s Election Results – Rapid Reaction May 15, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes back Emre Dogru to discuss their reaction to Turkey’s surprising election results. What does it mean for investors and the region, and what should you be looking for as the contest goes to a run-off in two weeks? Also, how to pronounce the letter “g” in Turkish. (You’re welcome.)

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Trouble With Emerging Markets May 12, 2023
    Show notes

    To learn more about the Knowledge Platform, click here:

    https://www.cognitive.investments/research_advice

    Jacob and Rob talk about the release of CI’s Knowledge Platform and some of the broader macro themes they are focusing on, before turning to an around-the-world discussion of trouble in emerging markets. They close with some thoughts on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (04:50) – The Knowledge Platform Launch

    (05:45) - What Is It?

    (06:44) - Geopolitics and Disruptive Innovation

    (11:20) - Deep Dive Explanations

    (14:35) - Early Stage Innovation

    (18:10) - Hydrogen rides on Iridium (Examples)

    (20:00) - Cutting through the BS

    (25:00) - Looking Short at Germany and the USA

    (31:15) - Pakistan Unrest

    (33:36) - East Africa/Sudan

    (37:00) - The importance of institutions

    (45:50) - Debt ceiling

    (54:26) - Japanese Markets

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Most Important Election In The Middle East May 10, 2023
    Show notes

    Turkey's elections may not be fair, but they ~are~ free.

    Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl onto the Cognitive Dissidents podcast to discuss the least volatile region in the world – the Middle East. They talk through potential scenarios on Turkey’s upcoming election before exploring multipolar developments in the Gulf and in Iran, then closing with thoughts on the future of Israel and Syria's direction moving forward.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:06) - Turkey

    (16:16) - Gulf/Iran

    (34:24) – Israel

    (47:21) – Syria

    --

    Ryan's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbohl

    Stratfor: https://worldview.stratfor.com/

    __

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Deep Dive: Uzbekistan and the Future of Eurasia Apr 30, 2023
    Show notes

    Welcome to the Deep Dive! We’re diving deep into the geopolitics of Uzbekistan – one of only two double-landlocked states in the world. In other words – Uzbekistan is one of only two states in the entire world that whose access to the world’s oceans is blocked by two states in all directions.

    Uzbekistan is a crossroads for the Eurasian continent, wedged between numerous foreign powers, each with their own interests in bending Uzbekistan’s behavior to their favor. China, Russia, the EU, Japan, India, South Korea, the United States are all deeply interested in and fighting over Uzbekistan’s and Central Asia’s future.

    Hopefully, by the end of this podcast, you’ll get a sense of Uzbekistan’s opportunities, its internal and external risks, and why the future of Eurasia depends on how those opportunities and risks evolve in the coming years.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Introduction

    (02:53) - The Basics of Uzbekistan

    (06:07) - What is Eurasia?

    (12:08) - Russian and Chinese Interests

    (23:45) - Everyone Else's Interests

    (35:50) - Opportunities and Risks

    (44:33) - The Path Forward

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Movements to Nationalize Lithium Apr 28, 2023
    Show notes

    TAKE THE SURVEY (please <3): https://forms.gle/TA2YX3GfV335Ey8d7

    --

    Jacob and Rob discuss why they continue to be more optimistic about U.S. macro than consensus – and the important geopolitical implications. From there they touch on Turkey’s upcoming elections and why fundamentals are more important than headlines, before closing with thoughts the differences between Chile and Colombia and the recent spate of news around lithium nationalizations.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:30) - Jacob’s musings

    (07:01) - U.S. macro

    (17:38) - China-Ukraine

    (25:13) - Turkish elections

    (46:03) – Chile/Colombia/Lithium

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Economics and Geopolitics of Fracking w/ Bethany McLean (Perch Pod Repost) Apr 26, 2023
    Show notes

    In this fantastic episode from early 2021, Jacob speaks with Bethany McLean, an American journalist and contributing editor for Vanity Fair magazine. She is known for her writing on the Enron scandal and the 2008 financial crisis. They talk about her latest book, Saudi America The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. While the episode is old, the content in it is still quite fresh and deserves more careful thought and analysis. Enjoy!

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:17) - The Economics of Fracking

    (24:43) - The Geopolitics of Fracking + the U.S. as an Energy Superpower

    (32:30) - Thoughts on the Future

    (41:35) - Enron

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Positive Outlooks, African Instability, and Warren Buffett's (Implied) Endorsement Apr 21, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob are back at it after a few weeks apart. They discuss positive data they are seeing relative to current gloomy expectations, before discussing the biggest geopolitical issues of the last two weeks: Lula’s visit to China, Mexico-U.S. relations, the fate of the European Union and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. They close with some thoughts about the recent political instability in sub-Saharan Africa…and with a shout-out to Warren Buffett for coming around on our long Japan thesis.

    Survey: https://forms.gle/NZs3sAZFoahxzycH6

    --

    Timestamps:

    (0:00) - Intro

    (1:54) – Market update with Rob!

    (13:00) – Brazil and Mexico

    (30:00) – EU/Grain Deal

    (44:00) – North African Instability

    (54:45) - Oil Prices

    (56:04) – Warren Buffett

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


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