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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    Erdogan, Hotdogs & AI Jul 14, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the week ahead will bring for Peru.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:00) - Inflation

    (05:00) - What's the Fed's next move?

    (10:00) - Are we nearing the end of the inflation crisis?

    (14:06) - Germanium and Gallium

    (16:30) - Geopolitics

    (17:20) - Why is Erdogan doing such an about face in Turkey?

    (33:49) - Brazil's Tax Reforms

    (40:00) - Brazilian Hotdogs and AI

    (47:44) - Quality of food

    (51:35) - Peruvian Unrest

    --

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Sim Tak's War Update + African Deterioration Jul 12, 2023
    Show notes

    Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive

    (05:50) - Defining success for Ukraine

    (07:20) - Russian readiness and analysis

    (08:50) - Can Ukraine get the weapons that they need?

    (12:50) - Let's talk about cluster munitions

    (16:50) - What weapons class will Ukraine get next?

    (19:38) - What happened with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup?

    (25:11) - Was the coup planned??

    (26:11) - Russian military morale

    (30:00) - Why should we care about what's going on in the African Sahel?

    (33:32) - When did the Sahel begin to deteriorate?

    (38:40) - The threads that connect West Africa

    (49:30) - Wagner/Putin's African interests

    (55:30) - Is the rest of Africa in danger of the Sahel's deterioration?

    --

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Multipolar Mineral Greed Jul 07, 2023
    Show notes

    No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports

    (12:21) - Natural gas teaser

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Stories We Tell Ourselves Jul 03, 2023
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:05) - Catching Up

    (04:32) - Telling Stories with Data

    (14:40) - Getting Meta

    (17:20) - US Restricting AI Chips, Cloud Space to China

    (28:00) - AI Infrastructure

    (36:10) - Foreboding Developments in AI and Chinese Innovation

    (43:00) - The Rise of the City-State?

    (44:48) - Geopolitics within nations

    (53:30) - Protests in France

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Water We Doing??? More Freshwater Talks with Peter Mayer Jun 28, 2023
    Show notes

    Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds.

    Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (03:00) - Colorado River

    (10:30) - Is there a chance of improvement?

    (14:20) - How do we fix this?

    (17:07) - Geopolitics of water amongst US states

    (19:54) - Can States realistically make cuts to their water usage?

    (23:37) - Arizona vs. California

    (25:09) - Legal issues with water

    (29:00) - Possible scenarios with water rights

    (30:55) - The next 10 years of water war negotiations

    (33:49) - What's stopping desalination efforts?

    (42:15) - Where do we go from here?

    --


    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).


    --


    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Economic Storms Ahead - Chase Calls a Recession Jun 27, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish).

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Introduction

    (01:42) - Chase predicts a recession

    (12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap

    (15:30) - Macro credit

    (18:20) - Futures in a recession

    (21:00) - Signals and signs

    (26:00) - Bullish on Japan

    (29:00) - Japanese demographics

    (34:00) - The World's Worst Yen Trader

    (37:50) - China's role in Japanese markets

    (41:05) - Chinese demand-side stimulus

    (44:44) – Nigeria's Future

    (50:00) - Nigerian Politics

    (53:47) - Natural gas

    (01:04:00) - Sports :)

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The End of Russia (Part II) Jun 26, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Russia as we know it, and will usher in a new era of instability for the region (compounded with the Ukranian invasion). They then move onto the market implications, the Ukraine counteroffensive, tactical nuke scenarios, China, and then finally Basketball.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:03) - WTF is going on in Russia?

    (09:00) - The end of Russia (No REALLY)

    (12:30) - Putting conspiracy theories to rest

    (18:23) - Internal strife

    (25:14) – What happens next in Russia?

    (31:56) - Market Movements

    (40:06) – Ukraine Implications

    (52:41) – Dam Explosion/Tactical Nukes

    (59:36) - China

    (1:04:18) – NBA talk and key takeaways

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The End of Russia (A Russian Civil War?) Jun 24, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob Shapiro hops on the mic for an emergency episode to discuss WTF is happening in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has claimed the city Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia. He is currently marching along a highway towards Moscow and there are reports of fighting between Russian Military and Wagner forces. Putin has responded by naming the movement as an armed rebellion.

    This episode was recorded at 9am Central Time, we will continue to keep you updated!

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Cash is King and Cars are Dumb Jun 23, 2023
    Show notes

    Rob is back from vacation and here to provide insights on the UK’s surprising inflation print and why CI believes inflation could be more stubborn than U.S. markets presume. From there, they discuss the latest developments in the Chinese economy – still the most important issue in the world, Titanic submarine developments notwithstanding – before discussing the auto industry and their shared skepticism on the rise of EVs.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Introduction

    (01:36) - UK inflation

    (06:15) - US inflation

    (14:56) - The role of energy volatility in Inflation

    (16:30) - The value of liquidity

    (21:13) - Energy companies

    (22:30) - Multipolarity, inflation, and China

    (27:00) - Xi Jinping vs. local government

    (31:54) - The automotive industry

    (40:13) - EV's + state-run capitalism

    (44:30) - What's in a market?

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Go Woke, Go Broke? Jun 21, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Enrique Fonseca onto the podcast for the first time to discuss Spain’s upcoming elections. Enrique Fonseca takes a more conservative approach to politics than Jacob, although they both acknowledge their biases and continue to talk through their disagreements. They spar over the role ideology plays in modern politics and about the extent to which the Spanish left’s emphasis on identity politics has hurt its electoral chances.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:09) – Economy is good, but polls are bad?

    (16:24) – Who is Podemos/the Spanish left?

    (30:06) – History of Podemos

    (32:04) - The radicalization of politics in Spain

    (36:21) - Radicalization of politics globally

    (42:30) - Liberalization of Spain

    (55:20)– What happens next?

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


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