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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    Why Should I Care About Nagorno-Karabakh? Sep 22, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:20) - Snot

    (02:02) - Brazil cut interest rates

    (11:11) - Brazil/US real estate liquidity

    (16:37) - Interest rates, commodities, manufacturing in China

    (22:51) - Nagorno-Karabakh

    (30:18) - How weak is Russia? What's next?

    (33:05) - Why should I care about Nagorno-Karabakh?

    (38:44) - Ukrainian Worries

    (46:00) - India and Canada

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Pitfalls of Green Energy Policies Sep 15, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:24) –German Industrialization

    (06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics

    (22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0

    (39:28) - China’s tech resilience

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    50 Years Since Allende - An Update on Chile Sep 11, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the years ahead.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:27) - The legacy of the Allende coup

    (08:33) - Chile's development

    (12:35) - Chile’s constitutional process

    (15:50) - Another social explosion?

    (18:00) - Is Chile a good investment?

    (22:50) - Why does Chile have strong institutions?

    (27:00) - Chile’s global position (energy, trade, politics)

    (31:42) - China's attractiveness to Chile

    (34:20) - Chile’s regional geopolitics

    (39:30) – Chile’s future

    (42:00) - Ideological and political choices

    (43:50) - Will Chileans ever feel like the coup was justified?

    --

    Links:

    Dr Funk’s article: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/fifty-years-later-he-haunts-us-still/

    Christopher Hitchens article: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v24/n13/christopher-hitchens/11-september-1973

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey Sep 08, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state.

    Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey

    Jacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email jacob@cognitive.investments to discuss access.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:35) – Istanbul v Ankara

    (06:35) - Turkey's Economy

    (14:00) - Turkish Coalitions

    (17:10) - Turkey and Russia

    (22:27) – Turkey and NATO

    (27:30) - Turkey and China

    (30:35) - Erdogan's Policy

    (32:15) - Turkey and the Middle East

    (38:00) - Predictions

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Japan: A Story of Stagnation and Change Sep 04, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!)

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (03:00) - Migration

    (06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside

    (10:15) - Stagnation in Japan

    (15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations

    (21:50) - South China Sea

    (28:42) - Chinese military vs. Japanese military

    (32:40) - Japan and the Korean Peninsula

    (38:40) - North Korea

    (42:11) - Japan and India/Southeast Asia

    (46:30) - Canada

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    The Depreciable Life of Information Sep 01, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:32) - How to think about information

    (13:15) - The challenges of information overload

    (19:11) - Participating in the media environment

    (24:50) - Healthy skepticism

    (26:30) - Journalism

    (33:00) - Information gathering tactics

    (39:00) - The human brain, aging, and information

    (48:00) - The refraction of old models

    (52:40) - The value of being a contrarian

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Hope and Change in Latin America Aug 28, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of China in the region, among other things.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (03:00) – Guatemalan Elections

    (14:44) – Argentinian Elections

    (40:40) – Ecuador

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    WTF Happened to Prigozhin?! Aug 25, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:55) – Prigozhin

    (08:06) – BRICS

    (12:00) – India

    (14:52) – Ethiopia

    (15:52) – Guatemala

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Superconductors and The Future of Fusion Aug 21, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensationalism…but also real progress.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (03:32) - What is a superconductor?

    (12:00) - What is LK99?

    (14:40) - Fake superconductor claims

    (19:00) - Is LK99 significant?

    (22:30) - Prospects for a usable room temp superconductor

    (25:45) - New developments in fusion 22:03

    (30:00) - Diving into fusion technology

    (36:33) - Helion x Microsoft partnership

    (44:40) - Will we see fusion reactors within our lifetime?

    (53:00) - Which country is developing fusion the fastest?

    (57:25) - Can we stop using fossil fuels altogether?

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


    Call Me “Jake Solo” 😏 Aug 18, 2023
    Show notes

    Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice!

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections

    (03:36) – Panama Canal

    (04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria

    (08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh

    (09:39) – Wheat

    (12:29) – China

    (16:00) – Germany

    --

    CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

    CI Website: https://cognitive.investments

    CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest

    Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

    Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Referenced In The Show:

    --

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.


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