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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    #194 - Dee Smith: God, Sex, & Death Apr 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Dee Smith on the podcast. Dee and Jacob have had several conversation on Real Vision, but Jacob wanted to host Dee himself so they could talk about whatever they wanted. This podcast sure does deliver that – they talk about whether the world is actually getting worse (Jacob is an optimist and Dee a pessimist on that score), and even dive into an extended discussion on immortality…and why thinking about deep humanistic questions is actually at the core of everything we discuss on this podcast.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:40) – Dee's 2024 outlook

    (10:45) – Hans Morgenthau, Multipolarity, Understanding complex systems

    (23:23) – Is the world getting more/less stable?

    (29:30) – Immortality (Philosophical)

    (37:15) - Russia & Putin

    (48:46) – Mexico

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Politics Among Nations: https://archive.org/details/politicsamongnat0006morg

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #193 - Marko’s Back! Apr 19, 2024
    Show notes

    It’s been too long since Jacob and Marko, cousins by choice, got together to record a podcast. They dive deep into what Trump winning the presidency again could mean for global geopolitics and trade – while addressing topics like U.S. inflation, Iran’s attacks on Israel, U.S. v global investing opportunities, and…of course…hot basketball takes.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:07) – U.S. Economy

    (20:17) - Israel/Iran/KSA

    (25:13) - What happens if Trump wins?

    (33:44) – Trump/Biden scenarios

    (38:30) - Biden's track record and trade deals

    (46:36) - Tariffs

    (59:36) - Multipolarity, bipolarity, charts and the future

    (1:05:03) U.S. v. Global (shout out Louis Gave)

    (01:11:50) - Basketball hot takes

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Louis Gave’s slides: https://research.gavekal.com/documents/10192/Unfoldinginflboom-apr2024.pdf

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #192 - Yoroslav Trofimov: "Our Enemies Will Vanish" Apr 17, 2024
    Show notes

    Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence. Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has been secured in some form or another.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:40) – Yuroslav's Background

    (7:20) – How did Russia get here?

    (13:30) - Why did everyone underestimate Ukraine?

    (22:40) – Zelensky v Zaluzhny

    (27:04) - When are Ukraine's next elections?

    (29:49) – Is the Russia/Ukraine war a stalemate? How much does Russia want?

    (36:18) - German and European perspective on the war

    (39:30) - Ukraine's relationship with China

    (41:11) – The future

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Our Enemies Will Vanish - Yuroslav Trofimov: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/0593655184

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    Emergency Update: Are we heading into World War Three? Apr 14, 2024
    Show notes

    Iran launched a bunch of missiles and drones. What next?

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #190 - Weekly Update: 47 Crises in 17 Years Apr 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob discuss the nature of economic crises, before exploring recent developments in the U.S.-China-Japan love triangle. They also explore the expectedly/unexpectedly hot CPI print and take lessons for the future. Spoiler alert: We think the market is wrong about the yen!

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:12) – Taxonomy of crashes/debating globalization

    (12:26) – China, Janet Yellen,

    (27:34) – Japan

    (47:00) – Globalization revisited

    (55:00) – Shameless plug

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    NYRB article: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/04/04/the-crash-next-time-seven-crashes-harold-james/

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #189 - Weekly Update: Coronal Mass Ejection Apr 05, 2024
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:10) - Taiwan

    (19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans

    (23:07) – Taiwan

    (25:10) – Immigration/Demographics

    (45:30) – India

    (47:30) – Historians rule

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    • Angus Deaton – https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Rethinking-Economics-Angus-Deaton
    • Immigration and the US Economy – https://www.briefingbook.info/p/immigration-and-the-us-economy-since?utm_campaign=email-post&r=bkto&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
    • Assuring Taiwan’s Innovation Future – https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/29/assuring-taiwan-s-innovation-future-pub-80920

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #188 - James Meadway: The First Crisis of the Anthropocene Apr 01, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:39) – Defining terms

    (11:41) – Weaponizing finance

    (20:50) – Crypto/Milei

    (28:00) - WW3 + Ecological disasters

    (40:57) – Debt

    (45:15) – Can we grow our way out of the problem?

    (51:30) – Silver linings playbook

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Macrodose: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/macrodose/id1646528688

    Link to James’s essay: https://socialistregister.com/index.php/srv/article/view/42873

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #187 - Sim Tack: Can Ukraine Still Win Against Russia? Mar 29, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka

    (13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse

    (24:00)– Can Ukraine still win?

    (29:30)– Sim’s take on Macron/French support for Ukraine

    (38:30) – Where does the ammunition come from and

    (40:43) – Ukraine's F16's

    (47:54) - Zelensky v Zaluzhny and what it would take to get Russia out of the war

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #186 - Matthew Pines: Cyber, Bitcoin, and Aliens Mar 25, 2024
    Show notes

    Buckle your seatbelts – this episode is going to take you on a ride. Matt Pines rejoins the show to discuss “the defining challenge of our generation” – the cyber conflict between China and the U.S. From there, they explore the global implications associated with the fragmentation of society due to digitalization and how it might impact currency, trade, and the future of war. And because it’s Matt they close by discussing aliens. Of course

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:48) – China v. US cyber conflict

    (21:28) – Kinetic threshold

    (37:48) – Bladerunner 2024

    (50:48) – Bitcoin/Hunger Games

    (57:33) – Aliens

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #185 - Weekly Update: Why We Still Like Japan & Other contrarian takes Mar 22, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob are pressed for time, but they squeeze in a quick podcast between meetings to discuss the big news out of Japanese markets this week. They give a window into CI’s international allocation strategy and what countries they are feeling good and bad about, before turning to political intrigue in Vietnam and lessons for and from the U.S. semiconductor industry after the allocation of over $8 billion in grants to $INTC.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:30) - Japan and the Fed

    (17:30) – Yikes Canada

    (22:09) – Vietnam

    ( 31:41) – Intel and the CHIPS Act

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Economist Article: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/03/19/why-japans-economy-remains-a-warning-to-others

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


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