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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    #214 - Pardon the Interruption: A New Geopolitical Show with International Intrigue Jul 03, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and John Fowler, former diplomat and lawyer and now partner at International Intrigue, are creating a new show on geopolitics modeled after the popular sports analysis show Pardon the Interruption on ESPN. Their goal? To bring you honest, objective, rigorous geopolitical analysis on the week’s most critical topics with irony, humor, and humility…and all in 30 minutes or less. Impossible you say? Perhaps! But we are trying anyway. Enjoy the show, share your feedback with us, and check out our friends at International Intrigue, they are doing great work. See you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:45) – Assange

    (06:45) – Bolivia’s failed coup

    (10:30) – Chinese lunar probe

    (14:45) – Kenya’s protests

    (19:00) – The Biden-Trump debate

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #213 - Crime in Latin America and the Virtue of Pessimism Jul 01, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob Shapiro welcomes Elohim Monard back on the podcast for a serious and important discussion on crime in Latin America. They discuss the reasons behind the increase of crime in the region, how it ties into migration, why strongmen like Bukele are so fascinating to geopolitical nerds everywhere…and why pessimism might be the answer to attacking crime head on.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:23) - Why is crime increasing?

    (02:11) - tatistics on Violence in Latin America

    (03:16) - Migration and Its Complexities

    (04:41) - The Paradox of US-Latin America Relations

    (06:56) - Root Causes of Crime in Latin America

    (17:14) - Transnational Crime Networks

    (21:48) - Local Control and Government Response

    (33:46) - The Bukele Approach to Crime

    (40:05) - The Challenge of Rule of Law in Latin America

    (41:14) - Mexico's Approach to Crime and Militarization

    (42:07) - The Paradox of Democracy and Authoritarianism

    (43:44) - Criminal Organizations and Government Control

    (46:49) - The Role of Criminal Groups in Society

    (01:00:31) - The Need for Transnational Solutions

    (01:07:53) - The Impact of the Pandemic on Crime

    (01:10:17) - The Venezuelan Crisis and Regional Instability

    (01:18:43) - Concluding Thoughts on Crime and Governance

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #212 - France’s Elections: Historic and Hysteric Jun 26, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Shane McLorrain on the podcast to talk about French President Emmanuel Macron’s election gambit – and how it seems to blowing up in his face…but how it may not have the outsized impact on France than some expected.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:18) – Overview of France right now

    (09:00) – Macron’s likability

    (17:31) – What was Macron thinking?

    (22:50) - Silver linings

    (27:40) – French Civil War?

    (32:14) – Effects on EU

    (49:40) – What to watch

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #211 - Things To Come Jun 21, 2024
    Show notes

    Referenced in the Show:

    https://cognitivedissidents.org/

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #210 - Elohim Monard and Ignacio Asis: Argentina Chainsaw Massacre Jun 18, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob brings back Ignacio Asis and Elohim Monard for a long awaited reaction to Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election. They explore how his term has gone thus far, and break down the big bills he was able to pass through Argentina’s Senate this week. They also talk about regional and even international implications.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Introduction

    (01:19) - Discussion on Argentine Politics

    (04:29) - Milei's Legislative Achievements

    (05:54) - Economic and Social Impact

    (10:17) - Milei's Government Reduction Strategy

    (16:44) - International Perception and Narrative

    (22:09) - Comparison with Bukele

    (26:56) - Milei Learning Curve and Global Polarization

    (28:37) - Security and Basic Agenda

    (31:04) - The Role of Military and Security in Argentina

    (32:46) - Narco-Traffic and Security Policies

    (36:33) - Milei's Promises and Economic Agenda

    (39:02) - Governance and Market Reactions

    (42:39) - Regional Impact and Right-Wing Populism

    (48:09) - Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

    (52:31) - Conclusion and Disclaimer

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #209 - Let’s Talk About Artificial Intelligence Jun 14, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob tackle a subject they’ve been avoiding due to its massiveness and ubiquity: Artificial Intelligence. They also do a segment of microgeopolitics (Jacob was in Bogota this week) and close out with initial thoughts on French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprising decision to call for legislative elections after his drubbing in European Parliament elections.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) – Microgeopolitics: Bogota edition

    (13:37) – Artificial Intelligence

    (59:03) – France

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #208 - Matt McClintock: The Good Life and Personal Sovereignty: Introducing Bespoke Jun 07, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Matthew McClintock, Founder and Executive Managing Director of Bespoke, to the podcast. Bespoke and CI are strategic partners, and this will be the first of what will become a monthly cadence as Jacob and Matt aim to explore and apply the intersection of geopolitics, investing, and blockchain with practical ideas about planning. Jacob and Matt have an open and candid conversation about Matt’s background, what Bespoke does, and offer some thoughts about how to think about estate planning, the future of money, and more.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) – Introducing Matt and Bespoke

    (13:00) – Estate Planning 101

    (25:30) – Iteration

    (30:11) – The good life

    (43:00) – The future of money and the role of crypto

    --

    Bespoke:

    Bespoke: https://bespokegroup.io/

    Matt’s X: [https://x.com/mcclintock_m

    Bespoke X: https://x.com/BespokeGroupCO

    Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattmcclintock/

    Bespoke LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bespoke-service-company-llc/ite: cognitive.investments

    --

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #207 - Dmitri Alperovitch: World on the Brink Jun 04, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch onto the podcast. Jacob met Dmitri via Twitter, where he was arguing against the case Dale Copeland made on the podcast for China not invading Taiwan anytime soon. Dmitri lays out why he thinks Dale (and Jacob!) are wrong – about China, about Taiwan, and about the United States.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (1:30) – Taiwan as Berlin

    (17:10) – Taiwanese independence

    (29:23) – Xi Jinpin psychoanalysis

    (37:00) – US policy towards China

    (44:13) – US strategies with China

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Dmitri’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #206 - The Fourth Transformation: What’s at Stake in Mexico’s Elections May 31, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob takes to the mic solo to fire up the hot-take factory. He previews Mexico’s elections – situating Mexican democracy in its own history, surveying AMLO’s successes and failures, and parsing who Claudia Sheinaum is and why she might be better for Mexico than you think. He also identifies the key questions you should be thinking about in terms of the election and Mexican-U.S. relations going forward

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) – Intro

    (00:08) - Mexico’s Geopolitical Importance

    (03:03) - Historical Context of Mexico’s Democracy

    (10:22) – Claudia Sheinbaum as AMLO’s Successor

    (20:42) - Comparisons and Future Projections

    (24:11) - Mexico’s Foreign Policy and US Relations

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Sheinbaum article: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Omar-Masera/publication/226764071_Mitigating_Carbon_Emissions_while_Advancing_National_DevelopmentPriorities_The_Case_of_Mexico/links/550c5a0b0cf2ac2905a3db2b/Mitigating-Carbon-Emissions-while-Advancing-National-DevelopmentPriorities-The-Case-of-Mexico.pdf

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #205 - Akshar Patel: Caste, Hindutva, and India's Elections May 27, 2024
    Show notes

    Akshar Patel joins the podcast to talk about India. Jacob and Akshar explore what caste really means, how religion and caste affect Indian politics, and explore Akshar’s idea of Ideologues v. Identitarians in Indian politics. They apply some of these insights to India’s upcoming elections and what is at stake in Modi’s transformation of the country.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:30) – The Emissary

    (06:30) – Left v right in India

    (12:20) – Caste and Religion

    (35:05) – Farmers and Soldiers

    (43:15) – Ideologues v Identitarians

    (48:21) – India’s elections

    (01:01:20) – India’s future

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Akshar’s article: https://theemissary.co/the-million-minorities-theory-of-indian-politics/

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


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