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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    #224 - Sober Liquidity Aug 09, 2024
    Show notes

    Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh’s government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob’s take on the Olympics.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:41) - Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence

    (02:46) - Understanding Market Volatility

    (08:37) - Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets

    (19:18) - Bangladesh Political Crisis

    (28:26) - Bangladesh's Garment Industry Resilience

    (29:15) - Global Apparel Export Dynamics

    (30:48) - Challenges in Textile-Dependent Economies

    (33:52) - Bangladesh's Economic and Political Landscape

    (36:05) - Innovations in Semiconductor Manufacturing

    (37:53) - Investment Implications in Technology

    (42:21) - The Future of Semiconductor Giants

    (47:37) - Intel's Struggles and Market Sentiment

    (50:16) - Paris Olympics Highlights

    (54:22) - Conclusion and Disclaimers

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #223 - Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (An Update) Aug 02, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:47) - CI Club Concept

    (05:45) - Global Geopolitical Updates

    (07:38) - Focus on Nigeria and Ethiopia

    (13:51) - Economic Strategies and Challenges

    (17:49) - Japan's Economic Policies

    (20:50) - Unconditional Cash Transfers Study

    (29:05) - Challenges in U.S. Immigration and Workforce

    (29:34) - Anecdotes on Job Market Shifts

    (31:23) - Decline in Male Labor Force Participation

    (34:57) - Universal Basic Income Study Findings

    (40:34) - Philosophical Implications of Leisure

    (44:29) - Automation and Future of Work

    (46:47) - Starbucks Earnings and Service Quality

    (48:06) - Historical Context and Policy Reflections

    (55:59) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #222 - Maduro and Venezuela Aug 01, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world.

    --

    Timestamps:

    Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn)

    --

    Referenced in the Show:


    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #221 - There IS A World Outside The U.S. Election (I Promise) Jul 26, 2024
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob spend a few minutes discussing Kamala Harris before moving on to all the things happening in the world you’re missing because Trump and Harris are sucking up the headlines. They discuss Mexico trade relations, signals of change in Cuba and Venezuela, and major developments in Egypt and Vietnam, before closing with some bullishness on Japan.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:50) - Kamala

    (05:55) – Mexico/Brazil/China

    (17:15) – Cuba and Venezuela

    (33:00) – Egypt

    (43:51) – Vietnam

    (47:50) – Japan

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #220 - The Trump Assassination Attempt Jul 19, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob discuss the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump. They explore scenarios related to tariffs and currency devaluation if Trump wins, as appears increasingly likely. They close with thoughts about CHina and why they are optimistic about the future.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:50) – Assassination in U.S. history

    (19:00) – Tariffs

    (34:00) – Devaluing the dollar

    (50:50) – China

    (59:05) – Optimism, scenarios, and why the Fourth Turning is bullshit

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #219 - How The Crusades Created Trusts as We Know Them Jul 15, 2024
    Show notes

    Matt rejoins the podcast to talk about a first step toward estate planning: trusts. That may sound wonky or boring, but stay with us – not only do we make it geopolitical, we make it philosophical, interesting, and relevant. Come for the intersection of politics and planning, but stay for the important points about privacy at the end as well.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:28) - Overview of Trusts and Geopolitical Context

    (02:59) - Historical Origins of Trusts

    (10:09) - Modern Trust Structures and Legal Nuances

    (15:33) - Revocable vs. Irrevocable Trusts

    (19:08) - Categories and Types of Trusts

    (29:12) - Understanding Revocable Trusts

    (29:34) - The Role of Trustees and Asset Protection

    (29:53) - Privatizing Decision Making with Trusts

    (30:41) - Irrevocable Trusts and Third-Party Trustees

    (32:31) - Who Needs a Revocable Living Trust?

    (33:38) - The Probate Process and Intestate Succession

    (35:32) - The Importance of Structured Estate Planning

    (38:16) - Advanced Estate Planning Strategies

    (41:13) - Demographics and Estate Planning

    (52:00) - The Impact of the Corporate Transparency Act

    (54:38) - The Importance of Privacy in Estate Planning

    (59:10) - Concluding Thoughts and Final Advice

    --

    Referenced in the Show:


    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #218 - Revolt of the Masses Jul 13, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob reconvene to talk about the latest CPI print, inflation expectations, and the U.S. elections. They also get philosophical about populism and apply their insights to different countries: the U.S., France, the UK, Argentina, and Germany.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) -Intro

    (00:39) - Weekly Chat with Rob: Catching Up

    (01:17) - Inflation Discussion: Latest CPI Print

    (03:36) - US Economic Slowdown: Service Sector and Manufacturing

    (06:22) - Anecdotal Evidence: Tree Trimming and Airline Demand

    (14:02) - Misallocation of Resources and Policy Volatility

    (16:27) - US Election Impact on Economic Policies

    (23:12) - Trade Tensions Under Biden vs. Trump

    (24:08) - Populism and Global Political Trends

    (25:44) - The Revolt of the Masses: Historical Context

    (26:48) - Authority Structures and Information Democratization

    (27:51) - French Elections: A Case Study

    (29:58) - The Importance of Reading Books

    (31:49) - Populism and Its Manifestations

    (33:59) - Country-Specific Political Dynamics

    (39:32) - Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times

    (42:47) - Final Thoughts and Recommendations

    (47:06) - Disclaimer and Legal Information

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #217 - Macron’s Gambit Worked…Sort Of – French Election Reaction Jul 10, 2024
    Show notes

    Shane McLorrain rejoins the podcast to take a victory lap on his predictions from a few weeks ago. He and Jacob talk about the election results, discuss what is next for France and Europe, and close with some spicy thoughts on lap swimming etiquette in ville lumière.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Introduction and Welcome

    (00:59) - French Elections Recap

    (02:10) - Election Results Analysis

    (03:46) - The Republican Wall and Far-Right Dynamics

    (09:08) - Future of French Politics

    (15:56) - Macron's Presidency and Reforms

    (23:34) - European Parliament and Far-Right Alliances

    (28:12) - Rassemblement Nationale Under Investigation

    (29:07) - European Far-Right Movements

    (29:55) - Contrarian View on Democracy

    (31:29) - Maloney's Unique Position

    (32:27) - French Enthusiasm Against Fascism

    (38:03) France's Relationship with the EU

    (46:28) - Irish Politics and Public Sentiment

    (49:40) - Swimming Culture in France

    (51:07) - Conclusion and Disclaimers

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #216 - Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Shap Jul 08, 2024
    Show notes

    Welcome to the first episode of the newly rebranded "Jacob Shapiro Podcast!" Jacob L. Shapiro brings in the illustrious Jacob N. Shapiro from Princeton University to chat about disinformation, overhyped fears of AI, the impacts of social media on mental health, and the political and economic implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative. They also delve into worries surrounding the U.S. election's election staff safety, and the future of media trust. We hope you enjoy :)

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Rebranding

    (02:30) - The Jacob Shapiro Confusion

    (05:00) - Interview with Jacob N. Shapiro

    (07:15) - Concerns About Disinformation

    (09:45) - The Role of Technology in Disinformation

    (12:20) - Historical Revisionism and AI

    (15:35) - TikTok and Social Media Influence

    (20:10) - Mental Health and Social Media

    (25:00) - The Future of Trusted News Sources

    (30:00) - The Impact of Gen AI on Journalism

    (35:00) - Shift to National News and Its Effects

    (40:10) - Economic Models for News Industry

    (45:00) - Challenges in Monetizing Quality Content

    (50:30) - Political Polarization and Media

    (55:45) - Election Concerns in the U.S.

    (01:00:00) - Foreign Interference and Election Security

    (01:05:50) - Interstate vs. Intrastate Conflicts

    (01:10:30) - China's Influence and Global Competition

    (01:15:00) - El Salvador's Bukele and Regional Politics

    (01:20:00) - Commencement Address Principles

    (01:25:00) - Closing Remarks and Disclaimers

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Where Americans get their News: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/

    Independent Affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx

    --

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #215 - The Ozempic Boom and the Future of Biotech Jul 05, 2024
    Show notes

    Rob and Jacob take a step back from the nitty-gritty of geopolitics and markets to talk about the boom in biotech stocks related to GLP-1s. They explore whether people are getting more health conscious or not, and what that might mean for the future of the biotech industry.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:45) - GLP-1s and Ozempic

    (10:50) - Health consciousness

    (28:45) - Individualized healthcare

    (37:25)-end - The future of biotech

    --

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


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