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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    #234 - Alberto Fujimori, 1938-2024 Sep 30, 2024
    Show notes

    Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:14) - Who was Fujimori

    (09:37) – Japan and Peru

    (14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori

    (28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos

    (35:45) – Post-Fujimori

    (40:06)- Fujimori Legacy

    (49:45) – Thank you but you’re a f’ing dictator.

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #233 - Bladerunner 2024 and China Stimulus Sep 27, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA

    28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil

    30:00 – China

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #232 - Why Simplify When You Can Complicate? Sep 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:22) - Paulo’s view

    (13:05) – US elections

    (19:32) – Oil

    (33:08)– China

    (41:20) – Grains

    (51:10) – Brazil

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #231 - Paging Hezbollah Sep 20, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel’s new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico’s judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week’s events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:05-10:00) – Fed

    (09:10) – BIOSECURE Act

    (22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel

    (42:51) – Mexico’s judicial reforms

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #230 - Microgeopolitics of Fargo and Brazil v. X Sep 07, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:40) – Fargo

    (19:50) – Briancon

    (30:00) – Brazil vs X

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #229 - Understanding WHO's Mpox Declaration Sep 04, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO’s emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration

    (06:30) - Needs v. realities

    (12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines?

    (22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty

    (33:55) – Pitfalls of international law

    (41:30) – How to build trust in institutions

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-desperately-needs-a-new-pandemic-treaty/

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2410395.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/opinion/mpox-vaccines-africa-pandemic.html

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #228 - The Arabian Gulf's Expanding Conflict + Modi's Visit to Ukraine Aug 28, 2024
    Show notes

    John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro dive into the current geopolitical landscape, beginning with a lively discussion about the Democratic National Convention and Kamala Harris's rising poll numbers. They touch on the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, examining the Red Sea Tanker attack and its implications for global shipping. They also speculate on the growing tensions between Israel and Hamas amidst rumors of a call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Narendra Modi's significant visit to Ukraine highlights changing geopolitical dynamics, while Elon Musk's controversy with Brazil over censorship broadens the conversation to global tech regulation. The episode concludes with an over/under segment, providing predictions on pressing issues like the Gaza ceasefire and Canada's railroad strike.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:34) - Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers and Media Coverage

    (04:05) - On-the-Ground Insights from Chicago

    (08:56) - Red Sea Tanker Attack and Global Shipping Disruptions

    (14:37) - Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations and Trump-Netanyahu Call

    (20:00) - India's Diplomatic Moves and Arms Import Strategy

    (25:18) - Elon Musk's Twitter Tantrum in Brazil

    (30:22) - Over/Under Predictions and Wrap-Up

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #227 - The Tactical Objectives of Ukraine's Offensive Push Aug 23, 2024
    Show notes

    Rob is on vacation, so Jacob welcomes Sim Tack to join him in his weekly Friday slot to discuss Ukraine’s invasion of Russia. The two address the logistical challenges facing Ukraine, such as air support and ammunition shortages, and analyzes the strategic and tactical objectives of the Ukrainian offensive. They explore various potential motivations behind the invasion, including creating negotiation leverage and affecting Russian forces' deployment. The conversation also delves into broader geopolitical implications, including Ukraine's coordination of Western-supplied weaponry and the potential long-term impacts on Russia and Ukraine's capabilities.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:14) Welcoming SimTac and Initial Thoughts on Ukraine

    (02:06) - Ukraine's Recent Military Actions

    (07:15) - Russian Air Power and Tactical Challenges

    (14:54) - Ukraine's Strategic Objectives

    (25:02) - Future of the Conflict and Military Leadership

    (32:58) - European Sentiment and Infrastructure Threats

    43:49) - Conclusion and Contact Information

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #226 - Monkeypox and AI Aug 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob talk about the expanding monkeypox global health emergency. From there they turn to artificial intelligence to talk about whether comparisons to previous bubbles in rail and telecoms are good models for thinking about it going forward.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:39) – Nordstream sabotage

    (04:16) – Monkeypox

    (11:00) – Government responses

    (20:20) – Investment implications

    (26:43) – Artificial Intelligence

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #225 - Great Power Network Competition and Bitcoin (and Aliens) Aug 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt’s updates on aliens at the end.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (03:00) - Bitcoin

    (12:55) – Philosophical considerations

    (27:05) – Rails / assets

    (40:37) – China’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities

    (50:30) – Aliens

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


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