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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    #253 - Lose the War, Win the Peace Feb 03, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes the always insightful and provocative Jacek Bartosiak of Strategy&Future onto the show to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war and the evolution of the multipolar geopolitical system. Jacek makes his case that a systemic, global war has already begun – and warns the U.S. what will happen if it indulges in hubris and pushes too hard on President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:01) - Ukraine Updates - Will Russia negotiate?

    (11:09) - Will Russia negotiate?

    (19:00) - The Geopolitical Landscape: Turkey and Germany's Role

    (28:06) - The U.S. and China's influence in Eurasia

    (33:36) - The future of Transatlantic relations

    (39:35) - The future of Europe's role in global politics

    (44:51) - Peace > War

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #252 - Mexican Leverage Jan 31, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob break down the tech market shake-up caused by Deep Seek, a rising Chinese AI company, and what it means for U.S.-China relations and global AI competition. They dive into Nvidia’s stock drop, how AI rivalry is driving investor sentiment, and the shift toward cheaper, decentralized tech. The conversation also explores the economic ties between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, and how these relationships will shape trade policies. Throughout, they stress the need for a clear-eyed view of market trends and stability in U.S.-Mexico relations amid growing tensions with China.

    Timestamps:

    (00:02) - Intro

    (01:06) - Market Reactions and AI Developments

    (10:24) - Decentralization and Global Dynamics Within AI

    (34:30) - Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics and Economic Policies

    (37:15) - Mexico's Economic Position and Geopolitical Leverage

    (54:14) - U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Primacy

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #251: Don't Forget The DRC Jan 25, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob discusses several key geopolitical developments, focusing on President Trump's recent inauguration and the implications of his trade policies. Notably, Trump did not immediately raise tariffs on China as anticipated, signaling a potential shift towards negotiation rather than confrontation in international trade. Shapiro also highlights the significance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first diplomatic visit to Panama, suggesting it could mark a renewed focus on Latin America. Additionally, he reflects on Ursula von der Leyen's remarks at Davos regarding the complexities of global trade and the need for Europe to establish a more cohesive capital market. Throughout the discussion, Shapiro emphasizes the importance of adaptability and resilience in navigating today's unpredictable geopolitical landscape.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:03) - Navigating a New Administration's Trade Policies

    (10:17) - The Future of European Integration

    (13:44) - Current Events in the Democratic Republic of Congo

    (19:21) - Resilience in a Changing World

    --

    Referenced in the Show:


    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #250 - Hungarian Baby Incentives Jan 17, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob Larity dive into another weekly update, focusing on the intertwined economies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. They discuss how the U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and trade could significantly impact these neighboring countries, particularly highlighting Mexico's unique position to leverage its relationship with the U.S. amidst rising tensions. They explore the implications of economic policies, such as the recent jobs report and inflation data, while also dissecting the emotional drivers behind public sentiment on inflation forecasts. The conversation touches upon historical parallels in presidential second terms, underscoring the challenges that may lie ahead for Trump as he navigates a politically divided landscape.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:46) - Naptime and the Economy

    (22:35) - The Impact of Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

    (29:29) - The Economic Landscape of Mexico and Canada

    (45:35) - The Importance of Maritime Choke Points

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #249 - Trumpismo Rising Jan 14, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob and Elohim Monard dive into the significant shifts in voting patterns among the Latino community in the recent U.S. presidential election, highlighting how Trump's appeal has grown, particularly among younger Latino voters. Jacob and Elo discuss the complexities behind these trends, noting that while Trump secured around 40% of the Latino vote, demographic breakdowns reveal nuanced support, especially among Latino men and younger generations. Elo emphasizes that the Latino population is diverse, and their political alignment is influenced by various factors, including migration stories, geographic locations, and generational differences. The conversation further explores how the political dynamics in the U.S. reflect broader trends in Latin America, suggesting that Trump's brand of populism, or "Trumpismo," may find resonance beyond U.S. borders. The episode concludes with reflections on how these evolving narratives will shape both Latino politics and U.S. relations with Latin America moving forward.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:03) - Intro

    (01:34) - Analyzing the Latino Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election

    (22:03) - The Changing Dynamics of Latino Political Support

    (28:01) - The Impact of Social Media on Political Awareness Among Young Latinos

    (44:23) - The Evolving Identity of Hispanics in America

    (58:33) - The Rise of Trumpismo and Its Implications

    (01:03:41) - The Political Landscape: A Shift in Focus

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #248 - Yet Another New World Order 🙄 Jan 10, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob Shapiro returns from paternity leave, jumping right into a discussion about the surprising implications of Trump's recent comments on military intervention and territorial ambitions. He compares his sixth-grade imagination of invading Qatar to Trump's statements about Greenland and the Gulf of Mexico, exploring the potential geopolitical ripple effects of such rhetoric. The conversation also delves into the economic landscape, particularly how anticipated tariffs under a Trump administration could impact U.S. relations with Canada and Mexico, as well as the broader implications for inflation and the labor market. Additionally, Jacob highlights a noteworthy thaw in Japan-China relations, suggesting that Japan may be recalibrating its foreign policy approach amidst changing global dynamics. Finally, the episode touches on Germany's evolving political climate and the potential for impactful reforms as the country navigates its economic challenges.

    --

    Timestamps:

    Chapters:

    (00:00) - Intro (we're so back)

    (03:16) - The Shift in Foreign Policy Perspectives

    (12:21) - Trump's Foreign Policy

    (19:34) - Macro-Econ Checkup

    (25:18) - The Impact of Immigration on Labor Markets and Inflation

    (35:17) - Shifting Dynamics: US Energy Policy and International Relations

    (40:54) - Japan's Evolving Foreign Policy

    (46:47) - The Shifting Political Landscape in Germany

    (53:11) - The Economic Shift in Germany

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #247 - Syria Dec 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari to the podcast to discuss the shocking collapse of the Assad regime.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (05:30) - Who are the Syrian rebels

    (17:10) – Turkey + Qatar

    (27:20) – Kurds

    (37:40) – Iran and the Houthis

    (43:44) – Saudis, Jordan, Egypt

    (50:55) - The death of Islamism

    --

    Kamran Bokhari - https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/kamran-bokhari/

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #246 - Government Collapse Week Dec 13, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob checks in from paternity leave to talk to Rob about the latest in markets. From there, they offer some hopefully insightful if slightly disjointed thoughts about France (no deal), Syria (little deal), and South Korea (big deal).

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:01) – CI Club

    (05:30) – US and Global Markets

    (26:33) - France and Europe

    (35:30) – Middle East

    (49:13) – South Korea

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.


    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #245 - Bully Capitalism Nov 15, 2024
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump’s first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China’s (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan’s recent election.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:54) - Global Ice Trade

    (03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies

    (18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Models

    (33:21) - The Facade of Dollar Exchange

    (34:11) - El Salvador's Bitcoin Bet

    (35:53) - Trump's Cabinet Picks and Policy Clashes

    (37:08) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus

    (48:23) - Japan's Political Landscape

    (58:20) - China's Global Investments

    (59:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Global Dynamics

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to application for Club CI: https://bit.ly/club-ci

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --

    Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

    The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor


    #244 - Japan is Waking Nov 11, 2024
    Show notes

    While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:33) - Japan 101

    (08:07) – Japanese disaffection

    (16:26) – Japanese paralysis

    (19:17) – Zoom out

    (23:31) – China

    (31:00) – ROK/Japan

    (36:45) – Shinzo Abe

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to Tobias’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --


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