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    Government

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

    The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it.

    Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China rivalry, Africa’s devastating civil unrest, the war in Ukraine, Latin America’s political realignment, the energy transition, oil and commodity markets, global trade and tariffs, artificial intelligence, food and water security, and the fiscal math behind the dollar. Some conversations start with a headline. Others start with a shipment of lentils, a tanker in the Red Sea, or a warehouse full of used books, and end up somewhere much bigger.

    Jacob is Director of Research at The Bespoke Group and a Stratfor alumnus who advises Fortune 500 companies, institutional investors, and family offices on geopolitical risk. He studied literature and theology before he studied foreign policy, and he approaches the world as a fox, not a hedgehog: curious, contrarian, skeptical of single-cause explanations, and willing to change his mind on air.

    For investors, policymakers, business leaders, and anyone who suspects the news is missing the bigger picture. New episodes weekly.

    (Formerly “Cognitive Dissidents” and “The Perch Pod”)

    Advertise
    • Apple Podcasts
    • Google Play
    • Spotify

    Latest Episodes:
    The Thing about Tariffs Mar 07, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob Shapiro and Cornell Assistant Professor Wendong Zhang discuss tariffs from an objective perspective: Who will they impact? How much? How does that change based on different scenarios? If you are looking to be convinced of whether tariffs are good policy or not, seek another podcast; if what you desire is objective analysis about the potential impact of tariffs both good and bad, you have come to the right place.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (03:33) - Tariffs and Trade Wars

    (07:54) - Impact of Tariffs on Various Economies

    (18:33) - Retaliation and Sector-Specific Impacts

    (27:48) - Global Trade War Scenarios

    (36:52) - Future of Trade Policies

    (44:10) - Conclusion

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Wendong's Paper - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5113925

    Wendong's Site - https://wendongzhang.weebly.com/

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Did the US Just Abandon Ukraine? Mar 02, 2025
    Show notes

    In this emergency episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast, Jacob and Marko dissect the unexpected and intense Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Ukraine's President Zelensky, and JD Vance. We delve into the rare earth mineral deal, the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, and Europe's reaction. The conversation touches on Zelensky's passionate defense of Ukraine's position, the viability of continued U.S. support, and the shifting dynamics in global geopolitics.

    Watch the full clip of the meeting below->

    Full link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEOv4x_FIsc

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (00:42) - Setting the Scene and Marko's Take

    (08:19) - Historical Context and Jacob's Take

    (17:04) - Will Russia Turn?

    (26:38) - Europe's Future in the Balance

    (29:22) - Does it Matter if Trump Abandons Europe?

    (34:48) - NATO's Purpose and American Interests

    (37:06) - Germany's Military History and Current Perception

    (41:45) - The Multipolar World and American Primacy (Trump and Obama)

    (50:45) - Zelensky's Leadership and Ukraine's Future

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Mr. Market Is Not Happy Feb 28, 2025
    Show notes

    Though operating at less than 100 percent capacity, Jacob and Rob gather to take stock of how markets are reacting to the changes of the last 6 weeks. They find themselves more optimistic about China, Germany, and Europe than others, and warn about signals that suggest President Trump’s honeymoon economy period is nearing its end.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:15) – Checking in on Mr. Market

    (12:11) – International Market Over-performance

    (13:11) – Germany and the Future

    (22:03) - ...What about the European Union?

    (23:03) - The EU and India

    (26:21) - China and the Taiwan Question

    35:14-end – China, Taiwan etc.

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Trade Wars are Metal Wars Feb 25, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob welcomes Tomas back onto the podcast in the wake of China’s announcement that licences will now be required to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to "safeguard national security interests.” Tomas and Jacob talk about how to align government priorities to secure access to materials and the complexities around building capacity in a deglobalizing world where demand for materials has literally never been more intense.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) – Intro

    (05:25) – Government priorities

    (11:12) – China and critical minerals

    (21:32) – Economics of mineral refining

    (31:27)– Social license to operate

    (38:19) – Feasibility of climate friendly goals

    (43:34) – Aluminum and REE case studies

    (52:35) – Food for thought

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Perceived Concessions Feb 21, 2025
    Show notes

    Rob is off this week! Instead, Jacob is rejoined by former colleague and current chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research Matt Gertken. They recap the week in geopolitics – specifically, the seachange in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, the potential role of Turkey, and the future of the Black Sea. They close with thoughts on China and the Middle East.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:30) – Gravity of the moment

    (12:30) – Will Russia invade the Baltics?

    (19:10) – Turkey & the Black Sea

    (33:00) – Germany

    (40:25) – China

    (50:38) – Iran and the Middle East

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    Stop Waiting To Live a Good Life Feb 18, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob and Rob welcome Narath Carlile from MakeTimeFlow to the podcast to talk about human flouring, deep success, and time management. Rob and I could have talked to Narath for even longer than 90 minutes, but in this first episode with Narath, we talk about his background and why he developed the tools he has created to help people invest and protect their time. Narath explains some of the science and context around informatics, human flourishing, and deep success. Rob and Jacob share some of their successes and failures in working with Narath. The group closes by talking about how to protect time in a world that seems determined to steal it from us.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) – Intro

    (03:04) - Narath

    (15:36) – Geography of wellness

    (28:18) – Informatics and human flourishing

    (48:28) – Making goals

    (01:00:04) – Rob and Jacob share experiences

    (01:18:43) – How to stay positive

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Link to MakeTimeFlow: https://www.maketimeflow.com/about/

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    USAID's Demise: What It Means for Global Power and U.S. Influence Feb 14, 2025
    Show notes

    A candid discussion with Emma Pennisi on the centers on the ignominious assault on the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the negative consequences that will follow. Emma Pennisi is a seasoned veteran in the USAID domain is here in a strictly personal capacity.

    Pennisi articulates her perspectives regarding the potential ramifications of this dismantling on U.S. global influence and strategic interests.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (02:32) - The Origins and Controversies of USAID

    (05:39) - The Founding Principles of USAID

    (11:20) - Altruism by Un-Design

    (24:08) - The Future of Foreign Aid: The End of USAID

    (28:46) - The Impact of USAID on Global Health and Migration

    (37:46) - Analysis of Foreign Aid's Long-Term Impact

    (45:03) - The Impact of USAID Dismantlement

    (49:23) - The Impact of Direct Aid: A Personal Story

    --

    Referenced in the Show:

    Lewis Lucke episode link: https://getpodcast.com/dk/podcast/covid19-a-fresh-look/44-ambassador-lewis-lucke_b67e81e8a5

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #256 - And Now, The Weather Feb 11, 2025
    Show notes

    Daryl Ritchison joins the pod to discuss the intricate interplay of weather phenomena affecting global climates, with a particular emphasis on the anomalous snowfall witnessed in the Gulf region, a rare event that has sparked significant interest. Jacob and Daryl explore the implications of a weak La Niña on weather patterns, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and finish on weather conditions in Europe and India.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - Intro

    (01:00) - Snow in the gulf

    (5:30) – Weak La Nina

    (11:20) – US Forecast 2025

    (18:40) - Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, South America

    (26:00) – Europe

    (31:05) – India

    (33:50) – Drought

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #255 - Strategic Ketchup Reserve Feb 07, 2025
    Show notes

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:07) - Intro

    (00:30) - Monetize the asset side of the balance sheet

    (17:18) - Bitcoin

    (25:00) - Debt

    (32:17) - Macro looks at England, India, Brazil, China

    (41:40) - Indonesia's Future: Opportunities and Risks

    (53:42) - Gaza and Analyzing Trump's Negotiation Strategy

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


    #254 - Geopolitical Cousins Feb 04, 2025
    Show notes

    Jacob and Marko had planned to pod today anyway…but then Luka got traded, Trump threatened tariffs, and the whole world went generally mad, so they had to go for over an hour and a half! Special announcement for those who make it to the end.

    --

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) - The Evening Special

    (03:33) - Unexpected Developments

    (18:14) - The Implications of Tariffs and Negotiations

    (28:14) - Geopolitical Implications of Tariffs

    (36:23) - The Multipolar World and America's Strategic Position

    (49:39) - The Shifting Dynamics of Global Power

    (01:00:40) - Geopolitical Perspectives on the Ukraine Conflict

    (01:07:08) - The Future of Ukraine and Russia's Strategy

    (01:18:41) - The Future of Luka Doncic: Challenges and Opportunities

    (01:28:06) - Introducing Geopolitical Cousins: A New Podcast

    --

    Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

    Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

    CI Site: cognitive.investments

    Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

    --

    The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

    --

    Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

    Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

    --


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