Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

DeFi Lending Will Eat Wall Street By 2030 | Sidney Powell Jun 25, 2025

Show notes

In this special episode recorded live at Permissionless IV, Maple Finance CEO Sid Powell unpacks the rise, fall, and rebuild of crypto lending. He discusses navigating the 2022 crypto credit collapse, the trade-offs between fixed and variable lending, why traditional institutions are finally entering DeFi, and how composability, transparency, and tokenized credit products are reshaping global finance. Sid also shares Maple’s shift toward overcollateralized lending, BTC-based yield products, and the future of structured on-chain credit. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:52) Sid Powell's Journey into Crypto

(02:11) The Birth of Maple Finance

(02:51) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending

(07:12) Ledger Ad

(07:12) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending

(08:45) Navigating the 2022 Crypto Crisis

(14:33) Current State of Crypto Lending

(17:21) Biggest Crypto Innovations

(18:32) Ledger Ad

(19:32) Defi Integration and Secondary Markets

(21:01) Creating Counterparty Transparency

(22:52) Transparency and Financial Product Costs

(24:40) Fixed Rate vs Variable Rate Lending in Crypto

(28:21) Future of Crypto Lending and Institutional Interest

(31:16) Structured Products and Treasury Companies

(35:51) Navigating Crypto Market Cycles

(38:25) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Fed Is Still Choosing to Be “Late” On Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup Jun 20, 2025

Show notes

In this live Roundup episode from the Monetarium 2 conference in DC, we unpack the Fed's hawkish pivot, the growing risk of stagflation, and Powell’s apparent commitment to being “late” with rate cuts. We debate what an SLR exemption means for bond markets, how Treasury issuance and TGA refills could spike yields, and why 2026’s Fed chair pick could upend everything. We also explore global capital flows, the decline of US dollar dominance, and how to navigate a world where almost every asset feels dangerous to own. Enjoy!

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Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:00) FOMC Decision

(09:06) Aptos Ad

(09:50) FOMC Decision

(13:09) Noisy Economic Data

(14:14) SLR Changes

(18:43) TGA Drain & Buildup

(24:50) Long Bond Yields

(25:28) Aptos Ad

(26:21) Long Bond Yields

(29:11) Powell Replacement

(34:38) Fiscal Dominance

(39:58) US Assets vs ROW

(46:12) Dollar Losing Reserve Status?

(51:17) Where to Put Your Money

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Empire | Introducing the Token Transparency Framework Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

In this special episode from the Empire podcast, Blockworks unveils its new Token Transparency framework—an initiative designed to close the information gap and bring much-needed clarity to the crypto space. Dan Smith, Head of Data at Blockworks, explains how this framework will reshape how token projects operate and why transparency is the key to crypto’s future. Enjoy!

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Follow Dan: https://x.com/smyyguy

Fallow Yano: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod

Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW

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Supply Shock Telegram: https://t.me/+SpmLg6P_QcgxNDcx

Supply Shock Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock

Supply Shock Survey: https://bitcoinhistorynl.beehiiv.com/forms/979475d9-fb4b-4c13-99af-5037dd5718c6

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code SUPPLY10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Ledn is the leading platform for Bitcoin-backed loans, offering a secure and transparent way to unlock liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Ledn has issued over $9 billion in loans since 2018 and has never lost a single satoshi of client assets, earning a reputation as the name you can trust in the crypto space.

Visit https://www.ledn.io/ to learn more.

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Supply Shock. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at https://Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Token Transparency

02:25 The Token Market & Lemons

11:40 Equity vs Token Risk

14:18 Structural Token Issues

17:12 How Did We Get Here?

22:57 Token Horror Stories

31:50 Token Launches

56:50 Best Case Scenario

01:02:38 Impact On Token Prices

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Supply Shock is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #SupplyShock

Market Infrastructure Is Being Rebuilt on Blockchain | Vishal Gupta Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Forward Guidance, Vishal Gupta—former head of USDC at Circle and Coinbase Exchange—joins to discuss his journey from Goldman Sachs to building crypto-native market infrastructure with his new venture, True Markets. He shares how stablecoins are reshaping market plumbing, the growing relevance of perpetual futures vs. options, and what traditional finance can learn from crypto (and vice versa). Enjoy!

Follow Vishal: https://x.com/vishalkgupta

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:07) Vishal’s History

(07:06) Most Interesting Crypto Innovations

(10:29) Ledger Ad

(11:21) Stablecoin Adoption & Fragmentation

(20:36) Evolution of Crypto Options & Exchanges

(27:15) Ledger Ad

(28:07) Bringing Exotic Assets Onchain

(30:37) Innovating Market Infrastructure

(37:14) Permissionless IV

The Unwinding Of The Global U.S Dollar Trade | Weekly Roundup Jun 14, 2025

Show notes

This week, we're back with another weekly roundup to discuss the unwinding of the U.S Dollar & it's impact on markets. We deep dive into this weeks economic data, rising geopolitical conflict, the global fiscal supercycle & more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:10) The Market Is Fading Geopolitical Conflict

(11:42) Ads (Aptos, Arkham)

(12:52) Takeaways From Economic Data

(16:33) The U.S Debt Refinancing Cycle

(21:42) How To Stop The Long End Sell-Off

(29:08) The Unwinding Of The U.S. Dollar Trade

(35:13) The Weimarification Of U.S Markets

(38:19) The Global Fiscal Supercycle

(41:02) Will A.I Bail Us Out?

Former Fed Official & Stablecoin Expert On The Future Of Money | Robert Bench Jun 11, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Robert Bench – former Fed official, USDC co-creator, and now founder of Radius – joins to unpack the real story behind Project Hamilton and the Fed’s digital dollar pivot. He explains why CBDCs became politically radioactive, how stablecoins are replacing the card networks, and why America must act fast or lose the future of money to China. Plus: how Radius plans to disrupt AdWords with scalable payments infrastructure—and more. Enjoy!

Follow Robert: https://x.com/RkBench

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:59) Circle & Stablecoin Innovations

(08:42) Ads (Ledger, Arkham)

(10:00) Building CBDCs

(20:47) Unpacking the CBDC Pushback

(25:36) Where Stablecoins Stand Today

(32:05) MMFs & Stablecoin Yields

(32:59) Ads (Ledger, Arkham)

(34:36) MMFs & Stablecoin Yields

(38:33) Innovating Payments & Attention Economy

(52:10) Stablecoin Endgame

(58:28) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Trump–Elon Fallout Proves Nothing Stops The Spending Train | Weekly Roundup Jun 06, 2025

Show notes

This week, Felix and Tyler unpack the unraveling Trump–Elon alliance as a microcosm of fiscal denial, explore the slow death of austerity, and discuss why endless debt and political gridlock may actually be bullish. They dive deep into the brewing housing market crack, the quiet rise of crypto IPOs like Circle, and the generational shift from TradFi despair to crypto optimism. Plus, reflections on Larry Fink’s globalization rebrand, market structure flows holding up equities, and more. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Subscribe to Milk Road: https://bit.ly/43EDdiW

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1badYX4f8iXwp3_nN7zm_hu0dVINu80QF/view?usp=drive_link

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:43) The Narrative Market

(03:49) Austerity Isn’t Happening

(06:27) Fed Easing, Jobs Data & Liquidity

(10:57) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham, Milk Road)

(13:09) Inflation & Stagflation Threat

(15:23) Housing Market

(21:08) Crypto Boom Time

(25:34) Crypto Is Changing

(29:07) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)

(31:31) BTC ETF Holders

(32:49) Saylor & Crypto Treasury Companies

(34:46) 2nd Draft of Globalization

(40:25) Chamath & The New Media

(44:09) Everything Will Change

(47:23) Market Structure

(52:23) Flows vs Fundamentals

(55:23) Final Thoughts

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The New Regime People Don’t Want To Accept | Jim Bianco Jun 04, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Jim Bianco Jim Bianco returns to break down why the post-COVID economy has completely broken old models, how soft data continues to mislead markets, and why 5% yields are now the new normal. He explains why everyone got April wrong, what the return of bond vigilantes means for fiscal policy, and how the Fed is out of step with reality. They also dive into Trump’s tariff strategy, the collapse of DOGE, the global shift toward bill issuance, and more. Enjoy!

Follow Jim: https://x.com/biancoresearch

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Subscribe to Milk Road: https://bit.ly/43EDdiW

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:26) People Just Don’t Get it

(04:44) The Narrative Market

(12:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Milk Road)

(14:54) Trump Goals vs Reality

(21:01) Tariffs or Capital Controls?

(27:10) What is the Role of Monetary Policy?

(32:43) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)

(35:05) Rate Cuts vs Hikes

(42:22) Who’s Buying Bonds?

(50:46) The Short Duration Shift

(54:59) Gold & Bitcoin

(57:44) US vs RoW Assets

Trump’s Tariff War Gets Sidelined By The Courts | Weekly Roundup May 30, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss the federal court injunction against Trump’s tariffs and whether this marks a true policy shift or just legal theater. The crew also dives into stealth bailouts via Treasury bill issuance, Japan’s inflation puzzle, AI’s productivity promises, and the looming housing and credit crunch. Plus, stablecoins are emerging as major buyers of U.S. debt. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-opkz9g_zdZo2XzMWZ4KnE7PzzmvTSe/view?usp=sharing

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:10) Permissionless

(04:25) Court Blocks Trump Tariffs

(10:04) Has Anything Really Changed?

(11:16) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Aptos)

(12:59) Has Anything Really Changed?

(15:44) Economy Mostly Fine

(17:32) It’s All About Flows

(20:46) BOJ & The Acronym Factory

(25:36) AI Disruption

(30:09) Japan Financial Repression

(32:08) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Aptos)

(34:33) Delinquencies & Real Wages

(36:07) Endowments, VC, & Private Markets

(42:46) Housing Teetering

(47:16) Trump & Powell Meet

(48:38) Winning Innovation Themes

(50:54) BIS Stablecoin Paper

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The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes May 28, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, David Cervantes from Pinebrook Capital breaks down 2025’s shifting macro landscape, covering fiscal stimulus, inflation, Fed policy, and market positioning. He highlights strong US deficits supporting growth, labor market shifts from immigration, and the chances of a June rate cut. He compares US vs. global equities, fixed income challenges, gold’s role, and small caps’ struggles with sector-specific opportunities. Enjoy!

Follow David: https://x.com/EconstratPB

Follow Pinebrook: https://www.pinebrookcap.com/

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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:34) YTD Macro Recap

(06:13) The Big Macro Picture

(11:29) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Aptos)

(13:57) Rate Hike Dilemma

(15:57) Tuning Out the Noise

(18:10) Labor Market