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    Business

    Forward Guidance

    The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 
    Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW
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    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

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    Copyright: © 384141 Blockworks 2021

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    Latest Episodes:
    Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup Apr 25, 2025
    Show notes

    This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy!


    —

    Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv


    —

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (02:40) Beware the Doom Loop

    (13:21) Ondo Ad

    (13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization?

    (16:15) Dollar & Bonds

    (23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop

    (25:06) Real Rates & Inflation

    (31:48) Ondo Ad

    (32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored

    (38:13) Trading The Current Regime

    (47:24) Gold Market

    (49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets

    (55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth?

    (59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem

    (09:30) What Will the Fed Do?


    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes Apr 23, 2025
    Show notes

    In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump’s slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy!

    __

    Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv


    __

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.


    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:47) Trump Agenda & Concessions

    (07:06) Tariffs & US-China Strategy

    (13:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (14:50) Bitcoin Decoupling & Changing Trade Flows

    (19:33) Fiscal Levers & Global Liquidity

    (25:26) Treasury Buybacks

    (30:49) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (32:04) Powell & The Fed

    (34:43) SLR & Big Banks

    (37:30) What Would Trigger QE?

    (41:55) Structural Bid In Gold


    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup Apr 18, 2025
    Show notes

    This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, and more. Enjoy!


    —

    Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


    —

    Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hLnf2szLRxPcUkIJwPyj34UbhHadON69/view?usp=sharing


    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv


    —

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:45) Recent Fed Remarks

    (06:26) Macro View and Tariff Trades

    (16:27) Ondo Ad

    (16:52) Market Positioning and Growth Slowdown

    (27:30) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve

    (35:30) Ondo Ad

    (36:01) Debating Growth & the Yield Curve (Con't)

    (36:59) Equities & Government Spending

    (41:44) Bitcoin: The Trade After the Trade



    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Why Systematic Macro Outperforms Discretionary | Market Radar Apr 17, 2025
    Show notes

    In this episode, Arty & Gamma from the Market Radar team join the show to discuss their macro models and the importance of systematic trading, how they’re thinking about global markets today, and how deficits and tariffs are complicating the Fed’s cutting plans. We also delve into lessons for discretionary traders, what Market Radar wants to see to turn risk-on, and more. Enjoy!

    —

    Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

    __

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (01:34) Market Radar Models

    (04:12) Systematic vs Discretionary Macro

    (07:23) Market Radar Systematic Approach

    (14:31) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (15:42) Lessons for Discretionary Traders

    (20:58) Weaknesses of Systematic Macro

    (24:06) Argument Against Shorting

    (27:57) Current Market Outlook

    (34:13) Current Market Outlook (Con't)

    (34:22) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (37:00) The Fed & Deficits

    (46:42) Conditions to Turn Risk-On

    (49:07) Catching Tops & Bottoms

    (52:09) Final Thoughts

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    BOTTOM IS IN, Says Trader Who Predicted The Crash | Mel Mattison Apr 16, 2025
    Show notes

    In this episode, Mel Mattison joins the show to discuss why he thinks we’re on the cusp of another inflationary bubble, the danger of growing entitlement obligations, and what more yield curve distortions mean for markets. We also delve into how gold could be on track for $50,000/oz, how all this will impact the FX market, and more. Enjoy!

    __

    Follow Mel: https://x.com/MelMattison1

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv


    __

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:35) Mel’s Spot-on Market Predictions

    (06:30) Macro Drivers of the Market Downturn

    (09:04) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse

    (13:36) Ondo Ad

    (14:01) Treasury Data and Fiscal Impulse (Con't)

    (15:39) The Anti-Dollar Trade

    (23:28) Social Security and Long-Term Economic Outlook

    (28:47) Trump Admin’s Grand Agenda

    (34:37) Federal Reserve and Inflation

    (35:54) Ondo Ad

    (36:24) Bond Market and Yield Curve Distortion

    (39:32) Yield Curve Distortions & Inflation

    (52:52) Currencies and Emerging Markets

    (57:57) Gold & Bitcoin


    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next? Apr 14, 2025
    Show notes

    This week, we join the Empire podcast to discuss where markets go next from here. After the market sold off in reaction to the Trump tariffs, we deep dive into the bull vs bear case in 2025, Trump's end game, building the perfect portfolio, Coinbase vs Robinhood, is Bitcoin really a safe haven asset & more. Enjoy!

    —

    Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz

    Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel

    --

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

    —

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Turning Bearish In 2025

    (10:490 Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (12:00) How Trump Spooked Markets

    (15:46) The Trump & Bessent Playbook

    (19:13) The Bull vs Bear Case In 2025

    (27:57) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (29:07) How To Position Under Trump 2.0

    (32:46) Will The Fed Step In?

    (36:46) What We Learnt From SVB’s Collapse

    (39:43) What’s Trump’s End Game

    (44:31) Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven?

    (47:24) Building A Crypto Portfolio

    (01:01:01) Long vs Short Vol

    (01:04:04) Coinbase & Crypto Equities

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before even thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Trump Put Is In The Bond Market | Weekly Roundup Apr 11, 2025
    Show notes

    This week, we discuss how we managed this insane week in markets, China and the evolving tariff strategy, and what’s going on with the bond market. We also delve into our expectations from the Fed, Secretary Bessent orchestrating policy behind the scenes, Bitcoin hitting ATHs in 2025, and more. Enjoy!


    —

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


    —

    Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cAWJKncxGgliZa54aTq08eCgn9Q-P8x1/view?usp=sharing


    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv


    —

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:39) PMLS IV

    (02:02) Navigating This Insane Market

    (07:32) Key Market Drivers

    (12:22) Ondo Ad

    (12:48) China & Tariffs

    (16:31) US Spending Problem

    (20:33) Bond Market

    (24:12) The Fed & Inflation

    (29:40) Powell, Bessent & Fiscal

    (32:39) Ondo Ad

    (33:10) Navigating A Volatile Market

    (38:55) Secretary Bessent Running Point

    (42:50) Alternative Trade Restructuring Strategies

    (48:59) Unpacking the Bond Market Put

    (52:47) BTC ATHs in 2025

    (56:02) Market Tailwinds

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Trump Is “Kitchen Sinking” The US Economy | Darius Dale Apr 09, 2025
    Show notes

    In this episode, Darius Dale of 42Macro joins the show to discuss Trump transitioning the US economy to a new paradigm, the potential for a recession and its impact on markets, and the threat of a debt refinancing air pocket. We also delve into why the Fed needs to transition to QE, how to approach portfolio allocation and risk management, and more. Enjoy!


    —

    Follow Darius: https://x.com/DariusDale42

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx


    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv


    —

    At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

    Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/


    Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.


    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:06) Key Market Narratives

    (04:03) Trump's Economic Vision

    (13:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (14:39) Trump's Economic Vision (Con't)

    (16:02) Technical vs. Actual Recession

    (20:02) Credit Cycle and Market Positioning

    (25:13) Market Pricing for Recession

    (30:15) Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts

    (32:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

    (33:54) Federal Reserve's Mandates and QE

    (37:26) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing

    (43:50) Portfolio Construction and Risk Management

    (47:34) KISS Portfolio System

    (52:29) Managing Different Opinions & Systematic Investing


    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup Apr 04, 2025
    Show notes

    This week, Tony Greer and Jared Dillian from Macro Dirt join the roundup to discuss the fallout of Trump’s tariffs, what markets we’re eyeing during this meltdown, and how to manage risk as a trader. We also delve into commodities, tax cuts, Bitcoin’s resilience, and more. Enjoy!

    —

    Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro

    Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap

    Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

    —

    Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Forward Guidance x Macro Dirt

    (01:32) Unpacking Trump’s Tariffs & Market Reaction

    (09:56) Commodity Markets

    (15:04) Federal Reserve and Economic Data

    (24:27) Market Volatility and Bear Market Rallies

    (25:57) Risk Management Strategies for Traders

    (30:00) Gold Miners and Commodity Markets

    (33:25) Tax Cuts and Tariff Implications

    (37:43) Bitcoin's Resilience

    (42:53) Bond Price Action

    (44:53) Weekend Plans

    —

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Liquidity Is Breaking And The Economy Is Next | Michael Howell Apr 02, 2025
    Show notes

    In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury’s hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed’s QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price, and more. Enjoy!

    __

    Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap

    Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

    Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

    Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

    Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

    —

    Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125

    —

    Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

    __

    Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.

    —

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:06) Deep Dive into Bank Reserves

    (03:53) Fed/Treasury Pump and Dump

    (09:51) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing

    (16:05) Ledger Ad

    (16:49) Bank Reserves & Liquidity-to-Debt Ratio

    (20:19) Post-GFC Financial System

    (23:46) Repo Market Tensions

    (35:01) Ledger Ad

    (35:46) The Fed's Duration Dump and Debt Refinancing

    (39:25) Yield Curve Suppression and Inflation Rates

    (44:11) Credit Markets and Risk Appetite

    (50:47) China's Economic Policy and Gold Strategy

    (01:00:52) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity

    (01:07:59) Final Thoughts

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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