Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

America’s Debt Spiral Is Accelerating | Weekly Roundup May 23, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss the U.S. fiscal pivot, soaring deficits, and what it means for bond markets, Bitcoin, and global capital flows. We also debate whether Japan is the canary in the coal mine for sovereign debt risks, if QE is still politically viable, the housing market crisis, and why Bitcoin and foreign equities may be the only rational long-term trades. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zNQbt0lyXLmZQYf-56mneLpPxFNJ5y7h/view?usp=sharing

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

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Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted.

Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) Big Beautiful Bill

(06:47) There’s One Trade

(09:39) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)

(11:21) Government Spending Problem

(14:10) US Economic Data

(16:55) Housing Market Crisis

(22:12) Global Collateral & JGBs

(27:21) Food Prices & Labor

(30:46) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)

(33:10) Bond Yields & Inflation

(38:32) Liquidity & Collateral Stress

(42:03) US Equities Still Safe?

(50:37) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir May 21, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, author of the MacroTourist newsletter Kevin Muir joins the show to unpack why fiscal dominance is the defining force in today’s markets. He explains how MMT helped him rethink macro, why higher interest rates have recently been stimulative, and how the U.S. deficit is fueling both market resilience and long-term risk. We also dive into Trump's economic policies, potential capital controls, foreign capital repatriation, the implications for bonds and equities, and why Muir is positioning for FX volatility and a major private credit unwind. Enjoy!

Follow Kevin: https://x.com/kevinmuir

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:56) Two Macro Buckets

(07:50) Higher Rates Stimulative?

(14:03) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)

(15:52) Credit Ratings & Deficits

(18:46) Challenges of Cutting Deficits

(28:09) Capital Controls Next?

(33:02) Time to Own Volatility

(38:43) FX Volatility

(39:35) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)

(41:57) Global Inflection Point

(49:12) US Bond Market

(55:11) Firing Powell & the Dollar

(57:28) Equities & Risk Premium

(01:01:26) US Outlook: Bullish ROW?

(01:06:41) Corporate Credit

(01:10:22) Final Thoughts

The Fiscal Spiral Has No Off Switch | Weekly Roundup May 17, 2025

Show notes

This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield curve's breaking point, and how AI-driven productivity might justify tech valuations. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yIKpOcGu-wv67vfeKu5I7Lo17hftwgk/view?usp=sharing—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comArkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) Tyler’s Back!

(03:53) China Deal & Tyler’s Framework

(09:56) Inflation & Labor

(11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)

(12:17) US Trade & Debt Reality

(19:58) Generational Repatriation

(22:23) MicroStrategy Monetizing Volatility

(24:02) Inflation & Capital Controls

(27:05) Tax Bill & Deficit Expansion

(28:56) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)

(30:27) Dollar & Bond Market Breaking

(35:32) Stock Flows, Volatility & Sentiment

(38:08) US Equities & AI

(43:14) Asian Currencies

(45:21) New System in Motion

(47:07) Short Bond Trade

(49:34) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini May 16, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, James of Citrini Research returns to unpack his framework for understanding Trump-era macro policy, highlighting why the trade war pause was inevitable, the return of the three-legged stool, and how the "big beautiful bill" could fuel equities. He also outlines why robotics might be the next great secular investment, breaks down China’s robotics lead, and more. Enjoy!

Follow Citrini: https://x.com/Citrini7

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:54) Trump, Tariffs & Macro Overview

(10:48) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)

(12:54) Taxes, Deregulation & Fiscal

(18:45) Deficit, Defense & DOGE

(22:57) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)

(25:43) AI & Robotics

(35:28) Macro Impact of AI & Robotics

(39:08) Investing in Robotics

(44:52) China vs USA

(48:44) Subsidizing to Build Reliance

(51:53) Citrini's Core Thesis

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

China Trade Deal Doesn't Change Where We're Headed | Luke Gromen May 14, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Luke Gromen joins the show to discuss the trade agreement with China, why the U.S. can’t afford real interest rates, and how the bond market—not policymakers—is now setting the rules. We also explore the hidden costs of decoupling from China, the inevitability of dollar devaluation, why any attempt at fiscal austerity is doomed, and more. Enjoy!

Follow Luke:

https://x.com/LukeGromen

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) China Trade Deal

(08:09) Balance of Trade IS Currencies

(10:45) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)

(12:08) Gold, Yuan & USD

(15:36) China Market & Competitive Edge

(20:06) Global Bifurcation

(24:51) Southeast Asia & Industrial Policy

(29:23) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)

(31:23) US Fiscal Endgame

(35:56) Treasury Tools

(41:06) Why Issue Any Long Duration?

(43:40) The Fed’s Next Move

(45:38) Austerity Risk

(51:06) The Trend Hasn’t Changed

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup May 09, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss our FOMC takeaways, Bessent making progress on a China trade deal, and how we’re thinking about the yield curve. We also delve into Fed QE misinformation, the bullish vs bearish risk-to-reward right now, the Taiwan dollar and Mag7 exodus, Bitcoin repeating last summer, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V9LpLt45QpaeAz-YgFcQZLlwwxTmqZaZ/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:29) FOMC Takeaways

(09:03) Strong Economic Data & Tariffs Sidelining Fed

(12:59) Unemployment & Immigration

(15:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo)

(17:17) Inflation & Fed Reaction

(22:28) Trading Cuts & the Curve

(25:49) Fed QE Misinformation

(29:42) Bessent & China Trade Deal

(35:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo)

(38:00) Bullish vs Bearish Catalysts

(44:34) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity

(46:51) Taiwan Dollar, Klauss & Mag7 Exodus

(55:21) Final Thoughts

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Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller May 08, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Craig Fuller joins the show to discuss how tariffs and Trump’s trade war are impacting shipping and supply chains. We dig into the differences between today and the COVID shock, the impact on small vs large businesses, bonded warehouses, the de minimis exemption, how this whole trade disruption is likely to unfold, and more. Enjoy!

Follow Craig:

https://x.com/FreightAlley

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:06) Tariff Shock vs COVID

(07:31) Front Running & Stress Points

(11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)

(12:41) Inventory Buffers

(15:36) Impact on Small vs Large Businesses

(22:55) How Will All this Unfold?

(33:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)

(35:36) Point of No Return?

(42:58) Tracking Shipping

(45:37) De Minimis Exemption

(48:45) Chinese Exporters

(51:51) Demand Destruction & Inflation

(53:25) Learn More About Craig’s Work

The Die Is Cast For A 2025 Recession | Neil Dutta May 07, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro joins the show to discuss why he didn’t call for a recession in previous years but IS calling for one in 2025, why the labor market is looking bleak, and how tariffs, wages, and oil play into the inflation outlook. We also delve into what the Fed should be doing headed into the FOMC meeting, Fed independence & the future Chairman, how the long bond will react to a recession, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow RenMac: https://x.com/RenMacLLC
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction

The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup May 02, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

—

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.

Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com

Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) NFP & Labor Market

(10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data

(17:38) Tariff Strategy

(19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda

(31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks

(38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand

(44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies

(51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum

(53:47) MSTR Outlook

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Tariffs Are Reversing U.S Dollar Capital Flows | Bob Elliott Apr 30, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Bob Elliott joins the show to discuss the reversal of U.S Dollar capital flows after the announcement of Trump's tariffs. We deep dive into the U.S balance of payments problem, the changing economic order, why the U.S Dollar continues to get sold & how to structure a portfolio in this environment. Enjoy! -- Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx -- Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv -- At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all. Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/ -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:41) The Changing U.S Economic Order

(07:56) The Reversal Of U.S Dollar Capital Flows

(12:38) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(13:47) Why Did The U.S Outperform Pre-2025?

(18:05) Trump Tariffs = A Weaker Dollar, Assets & Growth

(23:45) Is The U.S In A Balance Of Payments Crisis?

(28:41) What Is The Bond Market Signaling?

(32:28) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)

(33:44) The End Of U.S Exceptionalism

(41:10) A New Regime For Markets?