Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup Jul 26, 2025

Show notes

This week, Felix and Quinn unpack the Fed independence drama following Trump’s visit to Powell, explore the long-term implications of politicizing monetary policy, and preview next week’s pivotal QRA. They discuss how inflation expectations are diverging from commodities, why real yield correlations are breaking down, and how the dollar’s regime may be shifting. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fStI5q6IlPMiU2_swJ_r5sImvbxFSugS/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:36) Fed Independence

(08:02) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)

(09:22) Fed Independence

(14:25) What’s the Rates Solution?

(23:40) Upcoming QRA

(25:38) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)

(27:03) Upcoming QRA

(32:14) Potential Fed Pivot

(35:49) Dollar Regime Shift

(46:08) Housing Market

(51:04) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Threat to Fed Independence is Un-Anchoring Inflation Expectations | Jens Nordvig Jul 25, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, PhD Economist Jens Nordvig breaks down the evolving macro environment marked by waning Fed independence, shifting capital flows, and a weakening U.S. dollar. He explains how tariff shocks, long-end bond dynamics, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global investment behavior and challenging the traditional safe-haven role of U.S. assets. Jens also outlines the structural phases of de-dollarization, central bank reserve diversification, and how these factors may signal a long-term dollar downtrend. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:38) Bitcoin’s Quantum Threat

(07:18) Presidio Conference

(10:27) Quantum Resistant Solutions

(11:08) Ledn Ad

(11:45) Quantum Resistant Solutions

(17:14) Jameson’s Proposal

(23:21) What If You’re In A Coma?

(25:00) Ledn

(25:45) Proposal Feedback

(27:20) Quantum Mining

(29:59) How Fast Is A Quantum Hack?

(32:15) The Quantum Plan

(33:41) How To Protect Your Funds?

(35:39) Bitcoin Layers 2s

(37:43) Core vs Knots

(42:01) Is Bitcoin Progressing?

(45:16) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Great Ponzi-fication Of Markets | Weekly Roundup Jul 18, 2025

Show notes

This week, Le Shrub joins the show to lay out his barbell portfolio strategy and "GAG" (Golden Age of Grift) thesis. We discuss fiscal dominance, bond market dysfunction, yield curve control, and why crypto—especially ETH—is gaining traction as the new high-yield frontier. We also cover risk scenarios like Japan yield shocks, Powell’s potential firing, rising inflation swaps, and how private equity and crypto are being funneled into 401(k)s to keep the system afloat. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhG4HJA0tyvEtFncy_voFFm5LEOKEcib/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:54) Shrub Portfolio

(07:47) Macro Setup

(12:36) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)

(13:56) Yields Too High?

(16:33) Bessent & QRA

(18:53) “Fire Powell” Trial Balloon

(20:53) Trading The Ponzi

(24:48) Japan & Inflation

(26:41) Who’s Gonna Buy The Bonds?

(33:24) Are Recessions Over?

(34:18) Ads (VanEck, Apotos)

(35:42) Are Recessions Over?

(36:34) Weimar Endgame

(38:58) Coldplay Affair

(40:41) Volatility, Hedging & Hedge Funds

(47:09) Inflation vs Growth

(49:52) Trump Risk & Grift

(54:13) “Democratizing” Finance

(56:36) Crypto Treasury Companies

(01:04:07) Why Do You Own Things?

(01:05:05) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

We’re Entering The Final Phase Of Fiscal Dominance | David Beckworth Jul 16, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Senior Research Fellow at Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings David Beckworth breaks down the rising risks of fiscal dominance—when the Fed prioritizes government solvency over price stability. He explains the historical context of fiscal dominance, the warning signs we’re seeing today, and why current debt levels, persistent deficits, and political gridlock are pushing us closer to stage three. Beckworth also dives into the mechanics of stablecoins, the Treasury’s issuance strategy, and potential reforms to the Fed’s operating system, including balance sheet management and NGDP targeting. He warns that without serious structural change, the Fed’s independence and credibility may be at risk. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:27) Major Regime Shift

(05:00) Last Era of Fiscal Dominance

(08:13) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)

(09:35) Fiscal Dominance Catalysts

(12:29) Phases of Fiscal Dominance

(18:37) Can Stablecoins Help?

(23:51) Active Treasury Issuance

(26:44) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)

(28:06) Is the Endgame YCC?

(31:29) Crossing the Rubicon

(33:23) Fed Monetary Policy Framework

(38:18) The Ideal Fed Reaction Function

(45:18) Rethinking Forward Guidance

(47:52) Balance Sheet Goals

(52:13) Realistic to Offload Duration?

(54:38) Should We Remove IORB?

(01:13) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel Jul 09, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:50 Big Macro Picture

05:52 Demographics & Debt

10:36 Liquidity & Real Returns

13:43 What is the Endgame?

14:33 Ads (Aptos)

17:49 The Everything Code

20:43 Shifting from QE to Bills

25:12 Financial Conditions

29:40 What’s Driving Gold?

31:42 2017 on Steroids

36:00 Ads (Aptos)

36:52 Nothing Stops This Train

38:32 Removing Recession Risk

44:27 Immigration

46:42 What Happens Next?

55:04 Resurgence of Religion

58:27 When Banana Zone?

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Unpacking The Crypto Treasury Meta Jul 04, 2025

Show notes

In this live panel from Permissionless IV, we unpack the rapid rise of token acquisition vehicles like MicroStrategy and Defi Dev Corp. We explore why institutions are using these vehicles to accumulate crypto faster, analyze premium-to-NAV dynamics, discuss the evolution from equity issuance to innovative debt structures like converts and moving strike warrants, and debate sustainability risks if NAV premiums collapse. Enjoy!

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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) The Rise of Crypto Treasury Companies

(07:45) What Catalyzed this Trend?

(08:27) Ledger Ad

(09:24) What Catalyzed this Trend?

(14:17) Unpacking the Capital Structure

(20:26) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies

(22:06) Ledger Ad

(23:00) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies

(30:53) Asset Unwind Risk

#Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

All Roads Lead To Debasement | Weekly Roundup Jul 04, 2025

Show notes

This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the symptoms of a failed system, and the inevitability of currency debasement. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WckOC1BLjh33MBzZsCrHM5TatPCd1EZF/view?usp=sharing

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Cold Open

(04:00) Bullish NFP?

(08:25) Ads (Aptos)

(11:12) Anti-Immigration Impact

(17:32) Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition

(21:22) BBB Passed, Now What?

(26:40) Ads (Aptos)

(27:32) Both Sides Are Terrible

(34:32) High-Yield Credit

(37:17) Get Out on the Risk Spectrum

(39:52) Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE

(41:37) The Problem is Getting Worse

(44:12) All Roads Lead to Debasement

(46:58) Crushing Global Labor

(48:52) DXY & the End of Central Banking

(51:47) EM-ification of the US

(54:12) MSTR & BTC Volatility

(58:44) Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum

(01:01:32) Symptoms of a Failed System

(01:08:50) Buying vs Renting

(01:13:28) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain Jul 02, 2025

Show notes

In this panel live from Permissionless IV, we discuss what TradFi can learn from crypto, from instant settlement and transparent markets to permissionless synthetic dollars and on-chain leveraged trading. We cover stablecoin demand dynamics, the future of tokenized structured products, how perps outperform options for retail, the practical limits of decentralization, and more. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:23) What can TradFi Learn from Crypto?

(10:14) Is Decentralization Important?

(10:53) Ledger Ad

(11:43) Is Decentralization Important?

(17:23) Bringing TradFi Onchain

(22:35) Ledger Ad

(23:29) Bringing TradFi Onchain

(26:32) Stablecoins & The GENIUS Act

(30:57) Most Optimistic Innovations

#Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Stablecoin Future, Macro Moves & Big Tech Embracing Crypto | Permissionless IV Recap Jun 30, 2025

Show notes

In this special bonus episode, we dive into the takeaways from Permissionless IV, unpacking the biggest industry narratives and themes shaping crypto today. We discuss the future of stablecoins, give a candid macro outlook, and explore how Big Tech is positioning itself as the next crypto overlord. Finally, we reflect on some predictions we got wrong – and what we learned from them. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:57 Permissionless IV Takeaways

07:00 Biggest Industry Narratives

12:00 Future of Stablecoins

17:44 Macro Outlook

20:47 Big Tech Overlords

28:38 Predictions We Got Wrong

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#Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Fed’s New Mandate Is Financing The Deficit | Weekly Roundup Jun 27, 2025

Show notes

In this live Forward Guidance Roundup, we discuss geopolitics and the “peace dividend” theory from Pippa Malmgren, potential Fed regime shifts toward fiscal dominance, Trump’s pressure on FOMC board members, and the effects of tariffs and buybacks on equities. We also explore the implications of a weakening dollar, capital flows out of the U.S., and how AI and crypto could reshape wealth creation and ownership in the coming decade. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:10 Geopolitical Framework