Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello Aug 27, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy!

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy?

(07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing?

(10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening

(13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse

(14:51) VanEck Ad

(15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse

(19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits

(24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild

(29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders

(30:04) VanEck Ad

(35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth

(36:59) European Markets

(40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets

(43:54) Commodities Outlook

(47:03) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup Aug 21, 2025

Show notes

This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zjfyhnCSgVzJ5u4f7LAHct6KKLq_6gxk/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:50) Jackson Hole Preview

(09:43) VanEck Ad

(10:27) Fed Minutes

(13:05) Will Powell Be A Dove or Hawk?

(19:02) Bullish Post Jackson Hole?

(20:10) JH Impact on Bond Yields

(25:09) Trump’s Fed Takeover Strategy

(29:36) Centralization & the Frontiers

(32:42) VanEck Ad

(33:24) Treasury Auctions in Danger Zone?

(38:19) Hike to Save the Long End!

(40:05) Boom Time in Japan?

(43:45) Inflation Risk > Recession Risk

(47:00) The New Financial Reality

(51:32) Short Financials?

(52:30) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Crypto Credit Markets Will Rewrite Risk Management | David Grider Aug 20, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, David Grider of Finality Capital shares how he runs a digital asset hedge fund, the rise of digital asset treasury companies, and the evolving credit and derivatives markets shaping institutional crypto adoption. He also explains how macro liquidity signals drive his strategy and why the new toolbox of crypto credit instruments is changing the game for risk management and alpha generation. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:49) Running A Liquid Crypto Fund

(09:29) VanEck Ad

(10:14) Main Sources of Alpha

(12:29) Have We Had an Alt Season?

(14:34) Evolution of Crypto Derivatives

(17:46) Quantifying Market Froth

(20:32) Measuring Systemic Risk

(25:22) VanEck Ad

(26:03) Can ETH DATs Issue Preferreds?

(29:15) Crypto’s Credit Market

(31:54) What Happens When mNAV is Negative?

(33:59) Framework for Saylor’s New Yield Curve

(38:42) What Should Saylor Do Next?

(44:13) Managing the full Spectrum of Tools

(48:21) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup Aug 15, 2025

Show notes

This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy!

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—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HpY5-OGzqa3t0tVz1a-2RnUXCI6BbZU5/view?usp=sharing

—

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:28) Inflation Heating Up?

(07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook

(12:08) VanEck Ad

(12:53) Should the Fed Cut?

(16:01) Time for a Correction?

(28:58) VanEck Ad

(29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits

(33:29) Going Full Ponzi?

(37:15) The Imperial Circle

(41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact?

(48:45) Gold & Gold Miners

(51:13) Bifurcated Economy

(55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit?

(58:41) What Does Trump Really Want?

(01:01:20) The Younger Generation Is Screwed

(01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire

(01:07:06) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger Aug 13, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both cooling and tightening ahead. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(0:00) Introduction

(3:01) How Does BLS Gather Data?

(6:27) Why Do We Have Revisions?

(15:33) VanEck Ad

(16:18) How to Think About the Data

(20:42) Immigration Impact

(29:10) VanEck Ad

(29:50) Weekly Claims Data

(40:08) JOLTS Data

(45:54) The Beveridge Curve

(53:49) Where is the Labor Market NOW?

(56:20) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup Aug 08, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss the wild shifts in September rate cut odds, President Trump's recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, and the meltdown in commercial real estate & public pensions. We also game out different tariff scenarios, the impact of the TGA rebuild, and the economy’s slow-moving trainwreck. Enjoy!

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—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HjM04EXMKGsMRRzD1L_oaSqbYpGJT375/view?usp=sharing

—

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:03) Market Whipsaw

(03:10) Miran Fed Nomination

(06:07) Where Are We Right Now?

(10:19) CRE & Chicago Meltdown

(16:50) VanEck Ad

(17:35) Pension Crisis

(22:17) Dependence on the Rich

(26:29) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios

(32:59) VanEck Ad

(33:43) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios

(36:52) Gold Demand & Bitcoin Reserve

(40:28) TGA Rebuild

(48:19) Negative Real Rates Incoming

(50:14) Vanguard Bond Allocation

(53:52) Our Slow-Moving Trainwreck

(56:04) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan Aug 06, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already slowing. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:03) Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

(04:13) Institutional Adoption & Regulation

(04:57) Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological?

(08:37) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact

(09:48) Ledger Ad

(10:38) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact

(17:00) Institutions Are Slow & Steady

(18:58) Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity

(22:20) Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact

(23:38) Ledger Ad

(24:25) Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle

(25:45) Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages

(33:28) Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand?

(36:50) Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves

(38:28) OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out

(41:38) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? | Weekly Round-Up Aug 01, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, we explore what’s next for markets after a week packed with major economic data. We break down the recent surge in market euphoria, discuss whether stagflation is taking hold, and examine the outlook for growth—plus much more. Enjoy!

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Treasury Companies: Market Data - https://blockworks.co/analytics/treasury-companies/market-data

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:56) Takeaways From Economic Data

(08:51) AI Capex Is The Economy Now

(11:09) VanEck Ad

(11:53) AI Capex Is The Economy Now

(17:46) Are We In Stagflation?

(22:16) Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August?

(29:05) VanEck Ad

(29:50) How To Navigate Stagflation?

(38:12) Strategy’s Q2 Earnings

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Breaking Down The FOMC Meeting with Joseph Wang, Brent Donnelly & Bob Elliot Jul 30, 2025

Show notes

In this LIVE FOMC meeting reaction, we’re bringing together three of the sharpest minds in macro – Joseph Wang, Brent Donnelly, and Bob Elliott – to break down the Fed interest rate decision, Powell’s press conference, and what it all means for markets going forward. __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Brent: https://x.com/donnelly_brent Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:25 Reactions to Hawkish Fed

07:45 GDP and Economic Growth

12:52 Inflation and the Labor Market

16:16 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact

21:49 Currency Dynamics and the US Dollar

27:42 Structural vs. Cyclical Dollar Trends

32:40 Future Fed Leadership

43:19 What's the Trade?

47:11 Crypto and Gold Market

50:47 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan Jul 30, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Danny Dayan breaks down his framework for analyzing financial conditions and their real-time impact on growth and inflation. He explains why traditional rate transmission mechanisms are breaking down, how immigration and tariffs are distorting the labor market and inflation, and why the Fed may be behind the curve. Danny also lays out his case for a structurally weaker dollar, warns about a “doom loop” dynamic, and shares how he’s positioning his portfolio through it all. Enjoy!

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:08) Macro Overview

(06:18) Digging Into the Data

(11:03) Financial Conditions Framework

(12:11) VanEck Ad

(12:56) Financial Conditions Framework

(28:47) VanEck Ad

(29:26) Right Way to Think About Fed Funds

(38:56) Outlook on the Dollar

(46:40) What Does this Mean for Equities?

(50:44) Inflation & Growth Impulse Scenarios

(54:01) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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