Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg Oct 01, 2025

Show notes

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Emerging Markets Equity Amy Oldenburg explains how her journey from tech to emerging markets led her to crypto, why mobile-first nations are fertile ground for stablecoins, how governments and banks are wrestling with this shift, and where she sees the next big opportunities across EM and innovation. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:06) How Emerging Markets Are Embracing Crypto

(06:34) Stablecoins Transforming Emerging Economies

(10:30) VanEck Ad

(11:13) Banks vs Stablecoins

(13:28) Hottest Trends Across EMs

(17:00) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs

(17:39) VanEck Ad

(18:19) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs

(20:41) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup Sep 26, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy!

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CN8SRsPqdupjrs27C0k1PDRfvGLf8kS6/view?usp=sharing

—

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:23) DAS London

(04:29) Macro Outlook

(06:17) Strong GDP Numbers

(07:38) Understanding the New Economy

(13:02) VanEck Ad

(13:46) The Housing Market

(19:25) Biggest Risks to the Economy

(27:36) Market Structure Update

(29:06) VanEck Ad

(29:47) Market Structure Update

(33:24) Is Mag7 a Bubble?

(39:16) Inflation is the Plan & Problem

(43:42) The Poison of Financialization

(45:48) Breaking a Broken System

(50:15) Gold Pump vs Crypto Slump

(55:11) Protectionist Policies & the Dollar

(01:05:50) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom Loop” | Arthur Hayes Sep 24, 2025

Show notes

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO of Maelstrom Arthur Hayes shares his macro view on the erosion of Fed independence, inevitable money printing, and how these forces intersect with crypto markets. He covers Bitcoin’s performance versus gold and stocks, the political choices around AI’s productivity boom, and why DeFi, stablecoins, and new decentralized trading models are at the heart of the next cycle. Enjoy!

Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes

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Origin Summit: https://www.originsummit.xyz/

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:42) Money Printing & Yield Curve Control

(05:33) What Does this Mean for Bitcoin?

(08:38) VanEck Ad

(09:22) AI & the Debt Doom Loop

(13:19) Favorite Crypto Themes & Innovations

(14:23) Perp DEXes & Hyperliquid

(18:47) VanEck Ad

(19:28) Stablecoin Winners & Losers

(22:45) Stablecoin Systemic Risk

(24:43) AI, Intellectual Property, and Blockchain

(25:59) Western vs. Asian Crypto Markets

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup Sep 19, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss the Fed rate cut and dovish pivot, exacerbating the K-shaped economy, why the dollar could be bottoming, and why gold helps Quinn sleep at night. We also dig into Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, the hollowing out of public markets by private credit, and more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Join us at Origin Summit

https://www.originsummit.xyz/

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BX16NXlhxAHHCXiWc9o1EJ2-S20K-sZF/view?usp=sharing

—

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:38) Origin Summit

(04:18) Why Are We Cutting Again?

(11:30) Cutting Into a Hot Economy?

(13:06) VanEck Ad

(13:50) Cutting Into a Hot Economy?

(17:16) What’s Next for the Dollar?

(21:39) Market Structure & Asset Allocation

(26:47) Is the Gold Trade Still Alive?

(28:28) VanEck Ad

(29:13) Bitcoin vs Gold

(33:52) Private vs Public Markets

(48:22) Generational and Class Politics

(50:50) Optimism for the Future

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Energy & Trade Wars Are Rewriting the World Order | Helen Thompson Sep 17, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge Helen Thompson joins the show to discuss how Trump’s trade war, China’s energy and rare earth dominance, the Western Hemisphere’s oil boom, and NATO’s fiscal squeeze are reshaping global power. Enjoy!

Follow Helen: https://x.com/HelenHet20

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:35) Today’s Geopolitical Landscape

(05:49) Parallels in History & China Difference

(11:06) VanEck Ad

(11:51) What are the Goals of Tariffs?

(17:53) Fight Over Energy Commodities

(27:45) VanEck Ad

(28:25) How Will Energy Divide the World?

(33:01) Balancing Debt with Defense Spending

(38:43) Threat to Dollar as Reserve Currency

(43:45) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Data Is Screaming Two-Speed Economy | Weekly Roundup Sep 12, 2025

Show notes

This week, Quinn and Tyler cover lighter-than-expected PPI data, the Fed’s shifting focus from inflation to labor, deep labor-market revisions showing a “two-speed” U.S. economy, surging AI/data-center CapEx alongside weakening Main Street, and the concentration risks of mega-cap stocks and buybacks. Enjoy!

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogspUIuKxnHZh7REVA9tKpo7tyPCA52W/view?usp=sharing

—

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) DAS London

(02:59) Inflation Update

(08:15) No High-Yield Problem

(12:11) Rate Cuts vs Inflation

(13:40) VanEck Ad

(14:24) Rate Cuts vs Inflation

(15:40) Problems in the Labor Market

(20:35) Small-Caps & Productivity Boom

(23:05) Fiscal Dominance & Inflation

(26:46) VanEck Ad

(27:27) SPX Implied Vol & Market Structure

(32:12) AI Boom & CapEx

(38:24) Bipolar Market Outcomes

(42:17) Centralization vs Diversification

(49:11) What’s Next for Markets?

(52:56) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Former Barclays CEO’s Big Bet on Hyperliquid’s Explosive Growth | Bob Diamond & David Schamis Sep 10, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Founders of Atlas Merchant Capital Bob Diamond and David Schamis discuss their journey from traditional finance to digital assets. They discuss Hyperliquid’s explosive growth, permissionless financial rails, and the innovation of perpetual swaps. We also cover the unique token model with daily buybacks, how Atlas is bringing access to U.S. investors through a new treasury vehicle, and the broader macro backdrop of debt, stablecoins, and institutional adoption of blockchain. Enjoy!

Follow Bob: https://x.com/rediamondjr

Follow David: https://x.com/dschamis

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:54) Backgrounds: Skeptics to Believers

(09:14) Hyperliquid Innovations

(15:19) VanEck Ad

(16:07) The Case for Perps

(18:49) Blockchain Benefits

(21:43) Public vs Private Blockchains

(24:36) Atlas Value Proposition

(33:06) VanEck Ad

(33:47) Real Cash Flow & Valuation

(36:37) Turning Point for Finance?

(40:16) US Debt & Stablecoins

(44:07) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup Sep 05, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy!

—

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LyoebYlP0p27AqN4mQKVMH6PuYFi9T73/view?usp=sharing

—

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:07) Tyler Back to School

(02:48) DAS London

(04:24) Big Labor Market Week

(09:29) NFP Downside Surprise

(11:11) VanEck Ad

(11:57) NFP Downside Surprise

(14:04) September Cut Odds

(17:28) Bulled Up on Gold

(22:59) VanEck Ad

(24:21) Will Tariffs Get Overruled?

(28:35) Fed Plumbing Concerns

(36:39) Read on the Dollar

(39:25) Macro Recap

(41:34) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime | Ben Kizemchuk Sep 03, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Ben Kizemchuk joins the show to discuss his “Four Fs” macro framework – Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, & Passive Flows – arguing that we’re in a unique historical moment where all four are converging at once. He explains how fiscal spending reshapes growth, why financial repression and passive flows stabilize markets, and how fiat currency enables this entire regime. Ben also shares how these dynamics blur the line between the stock market and the economy, setting the stage for an AI-driven future. Enjoy!

Follow Ben: https://x.com/BenKizemchuk

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:42 Ben’s Journey Through Markets

03:05 Ben’s 4 Fs Framework

06:10 F1 - Fiscal Dominance

11:00 Catalysts for Fiscal Dominance

14:15 How Sustainable is Government Debt?

17:36 F2 - Financial Repression

23:28 Rates in a Fiat vs Gold-Backed System

27:20 F3 - Fiat Currency

33:00 Are Governments Constrained by Supply & Demand?

34:55 Role of Monetary Policy Going Forward

39:56 F4 - Passive Flows

44:02 Constraints on Passive Flows

48:25 4 Fs Implications

51:53 Rethinking Asset Allocation

54:35 Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Post-Summer Market Rotation is Here | Weekly Roundup Aug 29, 2025

Show notes

This week, we break down the seasonal market pivot around Labor Day, how systematic strategies dominate price action, and why inflation and economic re-acceleration could make a September rate cut a policy mistake. We also dive into the shift from capital to labor, growing government intervention in markets, parallels between AI CapEx and past gold cycles, the potential rotation from large-caps into small caps, and the state of treasury companies. Enjoy!

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Treasury Company Dashboard: https://blockworks.com/analytics/treasury-companies

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10EvjpyXzXIjKJsjlwp5C3zKhQTn2pS5t/view?usp=sharing

—

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:32) Labor Day Reset?

(05:39) Market Structure & Volatility

(12:58) VanEck Ad

(13:43) Market Structure & Volatility

(14:21) Fed Takeover Update

(15:21) The Inflation Trade

(22:08) Wages & Shift from Capital to Labor

(28:41) VanEck Ad

(29:22) Liquidity Danger Zone?

(41:34) The Capex Cycle

(48:28) What’s Next for Treasury Companies?

(51:32) Tyler’s New Job

(53:01) Russell & Market Breadth

(55:15) Final Thoughts

—

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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