Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

The Global Economy Runs on Perpetual Stimulus | Keith Dicker Dec 10, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Founder & CIO of IceCap Asset Management and host of The Loonie Hour podcast Keith Dicker breaks down why global markets now depend on constant stimulus, why Canada looks fragile as the U.S. strengthens, and how fiscal expansion and bond-market stress could shape the future of macro. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:23) Everything Revolves Around U.S. Macro

(06:17) Repeat of Powell Repo Pivot?

(13:15) Grayscale Ad

(13:55) Fed QE: Past vs Present

(18:30) Did We Bypass Recession?

(23:21) Canada’s Comeback & Global Markets

(26:30) Unpacking Canada’s Bullish MOU

(29:37) Grayscale Ad

(30:23) Fixed Income vs Growing Debt Burden

(38:21) Precious Metals & Commodities

(40:44) Hedging Tail Risks

(43:09) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI & Central Planning Are Propping Up the Economy | Weekly Roundup Dec 05, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss why the economy feels strong on paper but fragile underneath, from debt-fueled spending and AI-driven growth to rising concentration and growing policy distortions. We also explore where the pressure is really building, the metals trade, and what could break next as 2026 approaches. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BhzyBXj0Qt7LhUlDrb1MYor_iLLP-LQP/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:21) Consumer Spending & K-Economy

(09:50) Labor, Small Businesses & the Macro Endgame

(16:01) Grayscale Ad

(16:39) Market Concentration & CapEx Cycle

(23:47) AI Cycle Stage & Race with China

(27:44) The Metals Trade

(32:14) Grayscale Ad

(33:01) Canada’s Big Pivot

(37:41) New Fed Chair & Rates

(44:10) Vol Dynamics & What to Own

(50:33) Centralization & The Race to Zero

(55:00) 2026 Fed Games

(57:59) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Hidden Fractures Behind America’s “Resilient” Economy | Aahan Menon Dec 03, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro digs into why the economy feels strong on the surface but uneasy beneath it, the AI investment boom propping up profits, and why the bond market can’t find its footing. We also explore why traditional recession playbooks are breaking down, the transmission of liquidity and monetary into markets, and what actually matters if you’re trying to find an edge in trading macro. Enjoy!

Follow Aahan: https://x.com/AahanPrometheus

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) The Real State of the Economy

(06:08) Consumption & Real vs Nominal Growth

(16:51) Grayscale Ad

(17:29) AI CapEx's Economic Impact

(26:59) Grayscale Ad

(27:47) Fiscal & Monetary Policy Transmission

(34:21) Understanding & Trading Liquidity

(40:25) Finding Edge in Macro Trading

(45:24) Turning Macro into Money

(52:30) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The AI Economy Is Leaving Labor Behind | Weekly Roundup Nov 27, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw

(09:48) Grayscale Ad

(10:27) Market Structure & Positioning

(15:14) Debating the AI Race

(23:59) Gameplan for Next Year

(31:31) Grayscale Ad

(32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision

(38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities

(42:18) Oil & Energy Policy

(46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy

(55:17) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI Is Ushering in an Entirely New Economic Paradigm | Jordi Visser Nov 26, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the usual data releases and how Bitcoin fits into this evolving world. Enjoy!

Follow Jordi: https://x.com/jvisserlabs

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(05:15) Why Tech is Breaking Old Macro

(12:04) Grayscale Ad

(12:41) How to Think About AI Disruptions

(19:14) Transition From FCF to Debt-Funded

(25:04) .Com Comparisons & Infinite AI Demand

(29:05) The Genesis Mission

(31:10) Grayscale Ad

(31:58) The New Reality of Today’s Markets

(36:47) Deflation vs Inflation Risks

(39:58) Mike Green’s Viral Post

(41:52) Debt Doom Loop & Curing All Diseases

(45:35) Fed Buying Corporate Bonds

(47:25) Bitcoin’s Digital Moat

(54:25) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup Nov 20, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19pmtdWgHFQaXqjjkBeuM89VtGWCLa9qo/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) NVDA Earnings & Debt-Fueled Capex

(09:46) Rising Real Rates & Fed Pivot

(12:05) Grayscale Ad

(12:45) Private Credit Warnings

(14:18) Fed in the Dark & Midterm Setup

(19:54) Trump, Bessent & the Fed

(22:20) Hawkish Balance Sheet, Dovish Rates

(27:12) Grayscale Ad

(28:00) Currency Markets & the Carry Trade

(36:48) Bitcoin Quant Corner

(48:22) Geopolitical Implications of Bitcoin and Stablecoins

(53:52) Political Reflections

(58:54) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows Nov 19, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle

(05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth

(09:43) Grayscale Ad

(10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot

(13:41) Recession Odds

(16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy

(20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7

(21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics

(25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows

(29:28) Grayscale Ad

(30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)

(35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints

(40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets

(47:21) View on U.S. Equities

(50:57) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Hawkish Fed, Credit Stress & A K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup Nov 14, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1drPbriNOF50E3o6qdKikbqIYQy4qAuc6/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) Shutdown Fallout

(03:59) Hawkish Fed Speeches

(07:52) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress

(12:14) Grayscale Ad

(12:53) AI Boom Meets Credit Stress (Con’t)

(15:51) Warning Signs for Society

(18:58) Hawkish Fed Pivot

(21:32) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks

(28:14) Grayscale Ad

(29:02) Tech Bubble & Societal Risks (Con’t)

(31:04) Policy Missteps & Persistent Inflation

(32:00) Bitcoin, Decentralization & the Future of Money

(33:10) The 2026 Acceleration Playbook

(36:15) Widening Inequality & Generational Divide

(44:11) Centralization, Fragility, & Systemic Risks

(49:24) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

LTCM Co-Founder on Risk, Leverage & Simplicity | Victor Haghani Nov 12, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era. He also explains Elm’s Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return-chasing over time. Enjoy!

Follow Victor: https://x.com/ElmWealth

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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:04) Insights from Victor’s Storied Career

(09:22) Today’s Market vs the 90s

(16:32) Grayscale Ad

(17:11) Fat Tails & Return Chasing

(28:41) Grayscale Ad

(29:29) Is Discretionary Macro a Fool’s Game?

(37:42) Portfolio Construction & Managing Risk

(44:33) Balancing Risk, Sizing, & Expected Returns

(50:15) What is Good Diversification?

(55:55) Exotic Forms of Diversification

(59:52) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

America’s Two-Tier Economy Is Breaking Down | Weekly Roundup Nov 07, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss America’s decaying two-tier economy, with Main Street stuck in a silent recession, the Fed trapped between fiscal dominance and market structure rot, and younger generations turning to crypto and speculation as their only escape from a rigged system. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f1h9636F5tXpNPX6R5KxLnSi6BUpBnFN/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) Fourth Turning Vibes

(04:00) K-Shaped Economy Continues

(07:43) The Market is Broken

(10:57) Government Role in Markets

(11:57) Grayscale Ad

(12:34) Government Role in Markets

(17:47) Market Structure Decay

(21:16) The Death of Retail

(25:21) Generational Release Valve

(28:33) Labor Market vs Automation

(31:28) Grayscale Ad

(32:14) Political Pivot for 2026

(35:18) Government Shutdown Ending?

(37:32) Is Bitcoin Finally Bottoming?

(42:33) Sad Crypto Market Structure

(45:19) Solving Crypto’s Problems

(48:52) Giving Back to the System

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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