Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan Jan 21, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility joins the show to discuss the bifurcation of the world economy, inequality & the election cycle, populism during a war-time economy, and the secular market rotation. Enjoy!

Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:12) Market & Political Recap

(08:01) Grayscale Ad

(08:38) Bifurcation Of The World Economy

(17:11) Populism In A Wartime Economy

(23:22) Grayscale Ad

(24:11) Inequality And The Election Cycle

(29:33) Dollar Power And The Federal Reserve

(36:45) Following The Great Rotation

(46:31) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Market Is Rotating Faster Than Policy Can Keep Up | Weekly Roundup Jan 16, 2026

Show notes

This week, we unpack rising market euphoria, sector rotations and why consumers are suddenly back in focus. We also dig into Fed constraints, Japan’s endgame, Bitcoin waking up, and more. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vs0cYl__KxtoSrvj2Gs9bKGQ2SedlY1g/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:28) Markets Too Hot & Sector Rotations

(12:17) Grayscale Ad

(12:55) Trump’s Shift To Main St.

(25:06) Fed, Rates & Tariffs

(30:06) Grayscale Ad

(30:52) CapEx & Credit Financing

(35:31) Bitcoin Catching Up To Metals

(43:19) Japan Endgame

(48:39) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The End of Globalism, AI Acceleration & the Political Horseshoe | Alex Campbell Jan 14, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the silver trade and structural supply-demand imbalances in metals, AI acceleration and mismatch between CapEx & demand, and the breakdown of globalism. We also dig into the emerging political horseshoe, tariffs, and China’s trade leverage. Enjoy!

Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell

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26 Views For 2026: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/26-views-for-2026

The Silver Squeeze: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-silver-squeeze

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Deep Dive Into The Silver Trade

(10:23) Grayscale Ad

(11:03) Trading The Death Of Globalism

(18:21) Leaving Comparative Advantage

(22:15) AI & Compute Acceleration Is Real

(26:22) The Mismatch Between CapEx & Demand

(30:07) Grayscale Ad

(30:50) Leverage Levels & Risk

(33:57) The Political Horseshoe

(46:28) US vs China Capital Markets

(49:15) China’s Trade Leverage

(52:19) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Commodities & Cyclicals Are 2026’s Mega-Cap Tech | Weekly Roundup Jan 09, 2026

Show notes

This week, we discuss an insanely busy news cycle from geopolitics to surging metals and commodities, AI CapEx bottlenecks, and the SCOTUS tariff ruling. We also dig into the mega-cap rotation, political moves for midterms, and signs of economic re-acceleration shaping markets in 2026. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1lp3pWEKx9j0ZHK4ci7Idq3AUfoGLL5O1/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:03) Geopolitics, Reacceleration & The Metals Trade

(07:52) Yield Curve Steepening

(09:22) GDPNow & The Trade Deficit

(13:42) Grayscale Ad

(14:24) Economic Reacceleration

(16:22) Market Rotation & K-Reversal

(18:53) Stock-Bond Correlation Comeback?

(20:40) The New G2 World

(22:56) Who’s Buying Bonds?

(26:50) Grayscale Ad

(27:40) Small Cap & Metals Rotation

(30:43) Tech & Trading The CapEx Cycle

(37:26) SCOTUS Tariff Ruling

(43:23) Making Moves For Midterms

(46:34) Short Mag7 & Follow The Government

(49:13) Commodities and Metals

(51:02) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Future Growth Will Be Driven By Banks, Not the Fed | Andy Constan Jan 07, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to break down why markets may be leaving the Fed-driven era behind, how private credit and bank balance sheets are becoming the real engine of growth, and what massive AI and onshoring investments mean for rates, risk, and the business cycle going forward. Enjoy!

Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) The Shift From The Fed To Private Credit

(05:50) Push Vs Pull Demand For Credit

(08:47) Grayscale Ad

(09:25) Money Vs Credit

(17:28) The Loop Of Spending & Savings

(27:04) Grayscale Ad

(27:51) Is The New Credit Flywheel A Policy Choice?

(32:00) Impact On Investment & Consumption

(35:19) Moving Back To A Traditional Business Cycle

(38:52) Historical Disruptions Vs Today

(44:05) Do Assets Go Higher In This New Regime?

(53:04) Foreign Capital Flows & Trade Deficits

(01:01:47) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Market Has Already Picked Its Winners for 2026 | Tony Greer Dec 31, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Tony Greer joins the show to break down why the metals trade still feels early, whether oil finally catches a bid in 2026, why AI could be in its last innings, and what Bitcoin’s frustrating price action is quietly telling traders. We also unpack how to think about managing risk and Tony’s advice for 2026. Enjoy!

Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

TG Macro Conference: https://tgmacro.com/conference/

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:11) TG MACRO Conference

(04:38) 2025 Recap & 2026 Expectations

(08:34) The Precious Metals Trade

(14:29) Grayscale Ad

(15:06) Where Does Oil Go In 2026?

(17:08) Biggest 2026 Trading Themes

(21:49) Metals & The Debasement Trade

(23:02) Late Innings Of The AI Trade

(24:46) Grayscale Ad

(25:35) We’re Still In A Bull Market

(30:11) Bitcoin’s Disappointment

(33:06) Trading Bubbles

(34:05) Advice For 2026

(36:01) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Why This Isn’t A Bubble & Early 2026 Looks Like Goldilocks | Warren Pies Dec 24, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss why disinflation and Goldilocks conditions persist into early 2026, and where the real risks may flip from cooling to overheating. We also explore his outlook on bonds, equities, commodities, and the policy trade-offs beneath a K-shaped economy. Enjoy!

Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) 2025 Wins & Misses

(07:48) What Drives Rates In 2026

(13:00) Grayscale Ad

(13:37) Inflation Deep Dive

(18:47) Labor Market & Housing

(22:59) The K-Shaped Fed Cycle

(29:50) Grayscale Ad

(30:37) Fed Balance Sheet

(35:06) Active Treasury Issuance

(37:46) Equities In 2026

(45:20) Commodities Heating Up

(48:13) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Why Today’s Economy Serves Assets, Not Workers | Harris Kupperman Dec 19, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Harris (Kuppy) Kupperman joins Tyler to discuss why markets may look strong, but beneath the surface they’re being run for asset holders, not workers. We explore how policy choices, market structure, and AI hype are driving asset-driven feudalism. Enjoy!

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Follow Kuppy: https://x.com/kuppyskorner

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Kuppy’s Feudalism Piece: https://pracap.com/feudalism/

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:35) Economic Feudalism

(06:51) Why Is Wage Growth Bad?

(09:14) Malice Or Negligence?

(12:28) Grayscale Ad

(13:06) Global Feudalism

(18:27) How Does This Unwind?

(22:07) No Uses For Productive Capital

(25:46) Positioning For Political Revolution

(31:05) Grayscale Ad

(31:52) Where Do You Invest?

(38:27) Biggest Story In Macro

(41:50) The Problems With US Allocators

(48:50) Fixing Incentives & Finding The Bull Market

(53:50) AI Boom Winners & Losers

(57:27) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

How To Position In A "Slowdown" Regime | Market Radar Dec 17, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, the Market Radar team joins the show to discuss why markets have struggled to trend, how Market Radar’s models navigate slowdowns versus true risk-off regimes, and what growth, inflation, and liquidity signals are actually saying beneath the headlines. We also cover finding real macro signals from the noise and their predictions for 2026. Enjoy!

Follow Market Radar: https://x.com/themarketradar

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:29) Risk-Off Pivot

(07:28) Unpacking System Triggers

(12:26) Grayscale Ad

(13:05) Regime Map: Growth vs Inflation Impulses

(17:13) Inflation Expectations

(23:02) Debasement & K-Shaped Economy

(25:17) Finding Signal From Conflicting Inputs

(32:17) Grayscale Ad

(33:04) The Right Way To Think About Liquidity

(40:36) 2026 Rate Cut Predictions

(47:46) Economic Outlook & Being Systematic

(50:49) Final Thoughts

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Fed Embraces "Run It Hot" For Powell's Final Months | Weekly Roundup Dec 11, 2025

Show notes

This week, we discuss a pivotal FOMC day, the Fed’s new liquidity injections, shifting market leadership, and why inflation, credit, and social pressures are all converging into a “run-it-hot” regime. We also weigh the implications for Main Street, metals, Bitcoin, and 2026 positioning. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JCTPNIa3J3RutQTuPU37_vfPqIUpcKZ3/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:02) FOMC Takeaways

(07:29) Small Cap Rotation Underway?

(09:45) Psychology Of Inflation

(11:39) The Fed’s Economic Projections

(14:50) Grayscale Ad

(15:28) China’s Trade Performance

(17:45) Mag7 Ceiling Reached?

(18:22) Yields Diverging & Fiscal Stimulus

(22:12) CPI Volatility, K-Economy & Messy Politics

(27:36) Grayscale Ad

(28:24) “Run It Hot” Vs The Dollar

(30:47) Short Mag7, Long Main Street?

(33:08) Credit Markets & Correlations

(36:08) Are We Getting A Santa Rally?

(40:27) Consequences of Wealth Disparity

(46:58) We’re In The Financial Repression Endgame

(50:24) Crypto’s Disappointment

(54:03) Hope For The The Youth

(57:49) Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

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