Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

AI Reratings & Growth Reacceleration Add Fuel To The Real Asset Rotation | Weekly Roundup Feb 26, 2026

Show notes

We discuss the latest AI productivity disruptions, market reactions to the Citrini piece, NVIDIA earnings, and why capital keeps rotating away from software toward real assets, energy, and commodities. We also explore volatility, policy distortions, and signs of economic reacceleration. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhmyPwzHfE0pzkjIWOxHtvUolJptQPUr/view?usp=sharing

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Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here:

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Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro (03:29) AI Boom or Apocalypse (11:10) NVDA Earnings & Dutch Disease (15:30) Software's Rerating & CapEx Winners/Losers (26:06) Are We the Horses? (29:44) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham) (31:25) Signs of Economic Reacceleration (40:36) Currencies & Vol Control (45:12) Gold, AI, Space, Hockey (48:33) Housing Market & Homebuilders (52:49) Boomer Roasting

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, sed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

What ETF Flows Are Telling Us About Investor Appetite | James Seyffart Feb 25, 2026

Show notes

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart discusses the $9 billion crypto ETF exodus, the spaghetti cannon approach to new ETF launches, and why the great sector rotation into energy, materials, and industrials creates the perfect environment for active managers while AI steals crypto’s speculative thunder. We also dig into the risks of levered and covered call ETFs, index rebalancing, and more. Enjoy!

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro (03:25) What Happened To Crypto? (06:18) The Basis Trade (08:12) The Evolving ETF Landscape (12:48) Onboarding Institutions & Tokenization (17:47) Global Access To ETFs (20:09) Top Holders & Sellers And AI Competition (25:35) Ads (Coinbase) (26:28) Levered & Covered Call ETFs (31:00) Index Inclusions & Rebalancing (35:00) Massive Dispersion & ETF Rotations (41:07) Private Credit & Equity (45:30) Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

Capital Is Leaving Big Tech For Gold And Energy | Weekly Roundup Feb 21, 2026

Show notes

This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy!

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Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro

Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

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https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro
(01:42) Inaugural TG Macro Conference
(08:27) Demographics, Debt & Hard Lessons
(12:18) Oil, Commodities, Miners
(18:54) Gold, Energy & Commodity Cycles
(24:21) Rates, Bonds & Global Markets
(26:28) Ads (Coinbase)
(27:21) Warsh, Yields, Bull Markets
(33:09) Market Psychology & Bull Case For America
(41:08) Final Thoughts

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#macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

Dispersion Is Exploding While Main Street Reaccelerates | Weekly Roundup Feb 13, 2026

Show notes

This week, we break down evidence of a quiet Main Street re-acceleration, exploding market dispersion, AI-driven shifts in correlations, why passive strategies are being disrupted, and where capital is rotating across real assets, rates, and global markets. Enjoy!

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FollowTyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19aYbTDngy8hRXMYUNNxZId3oM8AsfBjv/view?usp=sharing

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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

05:28 Main Street Re-Accelerating?

12:23 Ads (Grayscale)

13:04 AI CapEx Is Breaking Correlations (RIP Passive?)

19:55 Exploding Dispersion & Capital Rotation Plays

23:32 Retail vs Hedge Funds: Who’s Crowded?

32:08 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase)

33:43 Crowded Trades & Atoms vs Bits

39:50 AI Bottlenecks & Real Asset Rotation

50:02 Bitcoin, Crypto & Risk Appetite Check

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#macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd Feb 11, 2026

Show notes

Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Vincent Deluard explains his three-bubble thesis for 2026, why tax receipts reveal stronger nominal growth than headline data, how fiscal stimulus could fuel a second inflation wave, the Fed’s likely policy path under Kevin Warsh, and why international diversification matters more than ever. Enjoy!

Follow Vincent: https://x.com/VincentDeluard

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

02:28 2026 Growth Acceleration, Taxes & Fiscal Policy

13:15 Ads (Grayscale)

19:32 Monetary Policy, Kevin Warsh & Inflation

24:33 AI CapEx Boom, Energy Demand & Growth

29:54 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase)

40:27 Geopolitics, Energy & Global Allocation

47:48 Commodities & Precious Metals

51:30 Final Thoughts

#macro #investing #markets #bubble #stocks #stockmarket

Markets Are Entering A New Era Of AI-Driven Disruption | Weekly Roundup Feb 06, 2026

Show notes

This week we break down the brutal de-leveraging across markets, why AI CapEx is flipping the old buyback playbook and what it means for Mag7, crypto's bloodbath, the next moves from the Fed and bond market. We also dig into credit risk, factor rotations, the Epstein list, and why gold is sending a louder signal than Bitcoin. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RPRDTwLzPJR9ggBsFnZ7jGUYUJUl-idb/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:16 De-Leveraging and Market Stress

05:20 AI CapEx vs Buybacks and Mag7

14:04 Crypto Bloodbath and Risk Assets

18:47 Ads (Grayscale)

21:42 Credit Risk, Factors, and Fed Path

32:52 Epstein Fallout

35:47 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase)

37:19 Market Structure, Bond Market

46:18 Private Equity and AI CapEx

59:27 Final Thoughts

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Will Trump's New Fed Chair Crash Markets? | Joseph Wang Feb 04, 2026

Show notes

Joseph Wang joins the show to break down the implications of Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination, debate QE versus balance-sheet restraint, explore shifting views on central bank independence, and unpack what all of this means for rates, markets, and inflation going forward.. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/josephwang Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for$200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:54 Fed Leadership, QE & Policy Direction 06:36 Ads (Grayscale) 14:10 Monetary Systems & Central Banking Frameworks 19:18 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 24:54 Fed Independence, Regulation & Rates 36:00 New Fed Chair Challenges & Political Pressure 43:07 Market Reactions, Speculation & Silver 47:15 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Fed Is Background Noise While Markets Reprice Reality | Weekly Roundup Jan 30, 2026

Show notes

This week, we discuss a sleepy Fed meeting, why policy signals feel increasingly irrelevant, and what’s really driving the generational metals squeeze. We also dig into AI capex killing buybacks, market structure cracks, the future composition of the Fed, and where traders are finding opportunity as correlations break down. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sQtOng_nDsqMoXpP7XGVycaxI82Ugp_2/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:48 Fed Meeting Recap 08:30 Metals Squeeze 15:25 Ads (Grayscale) 16:05 Cyclical Re-acceleration And Massive Rotation 23:00 Productivity Boom And AI CapEx Killing Buybacks 29:46 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase) 31:18 Can You Justify U.S. Multiples? 38:22 Market Structure And Risks Brewing 48:33 Market Dispersion And The Next Trade 54:18 Crypto And Competing Frontier Ideas 56:46 Inflation And New Fed Chair — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Finding The Next Perfect Trade | Alex Gurevich Jan 28, 2026

Show notes

In this episode, former Managing Director of global macro trading at JPMorgan and bestselling author Alex Gurevich joins the show to discuss his updated book The Next Perfect Trade, unpacking what actually makes a good trade across regimes. We also cover how to express trades, precious metals, carry trades, options simplicity, rates going to zero, and how AI may reshape discretionary macro trading. Enjoy! __ Follow Alex: https://x.com/agurevich23 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

The Next Perfect Trade: https://a.co/d/4vRsqQj __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

03:36 The Perfect Trade Framework

11:42 Ads (Grayscale)

12:12 Expressing Trades, Precious Metals

21:12 Options, Risk & Portfolio Construction

27:33 Ads (Grayscale, Coinbase)

28:56 Derivatives, Carry Trades & Market Structure

32:39 AI, Macro & Global Regimes

47:23 Japan, Macro Convictions & Rates Outlook

52:21 Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

The Generational Metal Squeeze Exposing Broken Sovereign Debt | Weekly Roundup Jan 23, 2026

Show notes

This week, we unpack why metals are ripping, how dollar weakness and bond market dysfunction are reshaping macro, and what Japan’s experience signals for the U.S. We also explore extreme metals positioning, dispersion across assets, and what uncertainty around the new Fed Chair means for rates. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/158S7DSViXUrZ4Lw2kPLtKE4yPNvKD6s9/view?usp=sharing

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https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:18 Metals, Japan & Global Debt

15:58 Inflation, Politics & Metals

23:00 Commodities & Elitist Wake Up Call

27:12 Market Positioning & Sector Dispersion

43:30 New Fed Chair & Rate Implications

51:17 Long The Periodic Table

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#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance