Forward Guidance

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The AI Bubble Is Widely Misunderstood | Steve Hou Apr 29, 2026

Show notes

AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.

Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.

We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:21 AI’s Macro Impact

06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles

10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth

14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get?

20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand

24:10 AI Is Too Cheap

28:15 Productivity Mirage

33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:24 Fed Policy And AI

41:02 Can AI Fix Debt?

47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks

49:47 The Future Of Economics

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› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Fed Is Irrelevant While CapEx Runs The Economy | Weekly Roundup Apr 24, 2026

Show notes

Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long.

This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy.

We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:49 Kevin Warsh Hearing

13:11 Oil Shock Meets Strong Data

16:51 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

17:15 AI Capex Boom

24:02 Data Centers Remake Economy

33:25 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:12 Church Beats OnlyFans

47:04 Dollar Dominance Surges

51:47 Dollar Wrecking Ball

57:58 ESG Trade Dies

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› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

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› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCQT4biQJI-d10B0-OuD7MxJlq-kW9tl/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell Apr 22, 2026

Show notes

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk.

We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy.

We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower

06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy

11:29 Recession Fears vs Data

17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks

23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters

31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime

39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean

47:13 Positioning for Turbulence

58:08 Where to Follow Michael

FOLLOW MICHAEL

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› Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/

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DISCLAIMER

Market Structure is Fueling an Inflation Trap | Weekly Roundup Apr 16, 2026

Show notes

Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality.

This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move.

We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market

06:09 Dollar Weakness Drives Everything

08:39 Volatility, Retail, And Trump

12:11 What Actually Moves Markets

16:52 Allbirds And AI Mania

21:04 Inflation Is Turning Higher

26:32 Midterms And More Stimulus

30:07 Housing Versus Asset Prices

34:00 Negative Real Yields World

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› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wFcQCeXRDIJX9c7g0Vn1H2IcBHNXdbbN/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER

How the World’s Biggest Macro Hedge Funds Are Using AI | Jan Szilagyi Apr 15, 2026

Show notes

AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks?

We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests.

We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses alpha or expands it. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:01 From Druckenmiller to Macro

05:28 Why the Name Reflexivity

07:58 Why AI Unlocks Finance

11:40 Solving Small-Sample Macro

17:19 Known and Unknown Unknowns

23:15 When Data Beats Chatbots

28:27 Does AI Kill Alpha?

34:02 Best Strategies for AI

39:13 Jobs, Productivity, and Policy

45:10 Compute Needs Real Resources

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› Reflexivity Website – https://reflexivity.com/

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› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup Apr 10, 2026

Show notes

Markets are sending mixed signals with geopolitics, inflation, and positioning all pointing in different directions, raising concerns about whether this rally is real or just a temporary squeeze before the next leg down.

This week, we break down how the proposed ceasefire and AI acceleration are colliding with market structure in a battle of fundamentals vs flows.

We explore AI-led productivity boom, Trump's political dilemma, Fed policy uncertainty, gold’s resurgence, and whether dispersion, not direction, is the real trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:21 Ceasefire Reality Check

07:28 Positioning Fuels the Bounce

11:25 Can VIX Stay Low?

14:28 Countertrend Rally or Not?

19:09 AI Compute Still Leads

28:11 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

30:06 Fed Cuts or Wishful Thinking?

34:05 China The New Bond Haven?

38:13 Best Trades in This Regime

44:14 Gold and Market Manipulation

49:50 Buy Non-US Again?

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› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/18AkSBzt_7Y_B8HX6BdbUyJ-kr7Q6Sqsq/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that allows traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

The Iran War is Accelerating the End of Globalism | Jacob Shapiro Apr 07, 2026

Show notes

A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are, raising a deeper question about whether we're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era.

Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins us to break down the Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy.

We unpack shipping flows, supply chain fractures, energy chokepoints, multipolarity, and why markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:42 Iran War Framework

07:23 What Actually Matters

11:46 Counting Ships, Not Headlines

15:59 Beyond Hormuz

20:20 Hidden Supply Chain Risks

25:20 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

27:11 How Long Until Damage?

32:01 Negotiations or Theater?

35:55 Why Markets Still Shrug

40:18 China’s Quiet Advantage

47:56 The Bull Case Remains

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› Website – https://jacobshapiro.com/

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SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance. isa recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Why AI Will Reprice The Entire Economy | Jordi Visser Apr 06, 2026

Show notes

AI is much more than another tech cycle. It’s a structural break that’s rewriting how economies function, how markets price assets, and how humans create value.

We sit down with Jordi Visser of 22V Research live from the Digital Asset Summit in New York to unpack how the shift from chatbots to autonomous agents is reshaping productivity, markets, and long-term economic frameworks.

We explore collapsing valuation models, AI-driven productivity, shifting labor dynamics, the compute arms race, and why Bitcoin, semiconductors, and hard assets may define the next cycle. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:23 AI Changes Macro Frameworks

06:28 Productivity Boom or Bust?

09:19 Why Bitcoin Benefits

12:42 AI and the Labor Market

15:55 The Sovereign AI Arms Race

19:15 Can New Models Catch Up?

22:58 Why Compute Demand Is Infinite

26:44 Hardware vs. Software

29:14 How to Actually Use AI

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› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Market Structure is Distorting Reality as Inflation Builds | Weekly Roundup Apr 03, 2026

Show notes

Markets appear frozen, but under the surface, positioning shifts and macro pressures suggest something far more unstable is unfolding.

We’re back with the trio dissecting market structure, geopolitical risks, and the growing disconnect between headlines and actual capital flows.

We dig into extreme hedging, volatility-driven moves, inflation from energy shocks, rotation into real assets, and looming credit stress that could force unconventional policy responses. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

06:36 Overhedged Market Setup

11:51 Why Volatility Misfires

15:11 Rotation Into Real Assets

18:12 Flows Over Fundamentals

22:00 Oil’s Inflation Corridor

29:48 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

31:25 Bear Flatteners, Bad Bonds

40:18 Wartime Capital Allocation

47:04 AI Compute Still Booming

55:01 Inflation Path, Not Politics

59:12 Final Thoughts

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› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VIgcvSAxR2kJPUjPsa7gjWFQPszL8atC/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users. residing incertain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold. positions in thecompanies, funds, or projects discussed.

Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated Apr 01, 2026

Show notes

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface.

In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support.

We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins could reshape global dollar demand. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:11 Why Miran Dissented

04:51 Looking Through Oil Shocks

06:36 AI And Deregulation Disinflate

10:04 The Case For Neutral

12:30 What Sets Neutral Rates

16:12 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR)

17:50 Where "Running It Hot" Narrative Fails

25:02 Skinny Master Accounts

27:02 Stablecoins And Dollar Demand

30:51 Tokenized Deposits Or Stablecoins

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› Federal Reserve – https://x.com/federalreserve

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› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside. the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto— and act on that information.

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

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