Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup Jun 12, 2026

Show notes

Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.

This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.

We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:11 Trump’s Market Playbook

08:11 The Fed Pricing Trap

12:12 Volatility Positioning Unwinds

17:22 Markets Are Centrally Managed

21:48 Mag Loses Leadership

28:54 The AI Capex Risk

30:17 The Best Rates Trade

34:20 Policy Powers The AI War

38:20 Will AI Politics Hit Markets?

43:52 The AI Access Divide

50:34 The Centralization Trade

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I_E0fiARx9ikBBddWaGJegaAAfa00ODn/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Warsh Must Choose The Dollar Or The Bond Market | Luke Gromen Jun 11, 2026

Show notes

A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.

Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.

We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global markets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:50 Warsh’s First Fed Test

04:54 Rethinking The Fed’s Role

11:35 Can Warsh Control The Committee?

14:07 Why The Dollar Looks Weak

17:19 Warsh’s Impossible Policy Mix

23:30 What's The Policy Plan?

27:31 China’s Strategic Waiting Game

34:16 Financial Warfare Going Global

40:22 Swap Lines And Petrogold

47:11 Risk Assets Face Repricing

FOLLOW LUKE

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/LukeGromen

› FFTT – https://fftt-llc.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Why This Economy Refuses To Break | David Cervantes Jun 03, 2026

Show notes

While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion.

David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics.

We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and David’s favorite international trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:59 AI Buildout Is Driving Macro

06:01 Profit Margins And Productivity

09:58 Supply Chains Shift To Resilience

13:13 Consumer Resilience Mystery

19:19 What Funds The Consumer?

22:44 Why The Recession Never Comes

25:55 The Fed Rethinking Hikes

32:19 Warsh Inheriting Inflation Fight

38:07 Bonds, Equities And Rates

41:17 Can Stocks Ignore Rates?

44:21 The Korea Trade

FOLLOW DAVID

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/EconstratPB

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› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup May 29, 2026

Show notes

This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates?

(07:53) The AI Productivity Boom

(14:28) An Update On Market Structure

(18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling

(36:21) How To Trade This Market

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

Can The AI Driven Rally Continue? | Weekly Roundup May 21, 2026

Show notes

This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off

(14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue?

(29:06) Why Active is Outperforming Passive

(38:44) The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› https://docsend.com/view/62t43sp222nsvqzg

› Dell Children's Donation – ⁠https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061⁠

The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup May 15, 2026

Show notes

Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control.

This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop.

We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser

05:55 Monster Earnings And AI

07:59 Is This A Bubble?

12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel

14:56 Frothy AI Positioning

20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail

27:17 Main Street Is Breaking

31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets

34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl?

39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI?

42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal

47:02 Populism Against AI Politics

51:55 $10k Donation Goal

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing

› Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061

DISCLAIMER

The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta May 13, 2026

Show notes

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.

We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:54 The Real Inflation Story

06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold

08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken

12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks

14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion

19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate

22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk

26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data

29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming?

36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed

45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy

48:14 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC

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› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

DISCLAIMER

Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class | Weekly Roundup May 09, 2026

Show notes

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people.

This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage.

We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels

07:38 Trading Oil Volatility

13:45 Oil, China, And AI

17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports

20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation?

24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping

26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime

30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight

33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization

40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market

44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs

47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER

Passive Easing Is Fueling The Next Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan May 06, 2026

Show notes

Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint.

Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again.

We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong?

07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy

11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth

19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die

21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed

29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late

36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake

43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup

48:57 Where To Find Danny

FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5

› Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

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