Bloomberg Surveillance - Bloomberg

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Surveillance: Forecasts Have to Be Nimble With Trump's Unknowns Dec 22, 2016

Show notes

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, says many politicians are focusing on the positives of Donald Trump's tax policies and not on the negatives of his unknown trade policies. Prior to that, Strategas's Chris Verrone says the market rally after the presidential election is actually not that extraordinary. Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, says she's cautious about fourth quarter GDP growth. George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures, says the first flashpoint that Trump will have to deal with is the Middle East. Finally, Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist, says Trump captured lightning in a bottle with populism.

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Surveillance: Change in China Strategy Is Worrisome, Roach Says Dec 21, 2016

Show notes

Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, talks to Tom Keene and David Gura about the shift in the U.S. relationship with China. Prior to that, Bloomberg's Lionel Laurent discusses European banking. Then, Steve Auth, CIO of Federated Investors Equities, says the economy doesn't go anywhere without confidence. Also, Princeton University's Alan Krueger discusses the evolution of terrorism in the 10 years since he published "What Makes A Terrorist?" Finally, Deutsche Bank's Sebastien Galy discusses the future for emerging markets under a Donald Trump presidency.

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Surveillance: We Can't Deal With China on Twitter, Hormats Says Dec 20, 2016

Show notes

Bob Hormats, Kissinger Associates' vice-chairman, discusses Donald Trump's foreign policy with China. Prior to that, Tom Keene and David Gura talk to PIMCO's Jim Moore about retirement. Also, John Vail, Nikko Asset Management's chief global strategist, says Japan's economic landscape has been looking good since Trump's election. Finally, Michael Darda, MKM Holdings' chief economist, talks about the velocity of money and growth potential of the U.S. economy.

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Surveillance: Quinlan Discusses The Economics of Global Obesity Dec 19, 2016

Show notes

Joe Quinlan, the chief market strategist for U.S. Trust, gives an outlook for 2017 and discusses rising global obesity. Then, Chris Grisanti, CEO of Grisanti Capital Management, says banks are attractive because as rates rise, they can finally earn money in the lending game. Also, John Allison, former CEO of BB&T, says he thinks Mike Pence can influence Donald Trump into becoming a libertarian. Finally, Bloomberg's Greg Viscusi discusses the news that IMF Chief Christine Lagarde was found guilty of negligence.

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Surveillance: Too Much Talk Can Lower Transparency, Taylor Says Dec 16, 2016

Show notes

John Taylor, an economics professor at Stanford University, says the advantage of a monetary strategy or rule is that you don't have to keep talking about it. Prior to that, Peter Tague, Citigroup's co-head of global M&A, says the Chinese have been more aggressive on deal-making on a cross-border basis, driven by a desire to access technology. Then, BlackRock's Jeffrey Rosenberg says correlations on debt versus equity have displayed less certainty and less reliability than we've come to expect.

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Surveillance: BOE May Need to Ease Again in 2017, Maher Says Dec 15, 2016

Show notes

Daragh Maher, HSBC's head of FX strategy, says the euro decline will push markets to think about parity. Then, Admiral James Stavridis, dean of Tufts' Fletcher School, says Rex Tillerson meets the standards of Secretary of State quite well. Finally, Deutsche Bank's Alan Ruskin says sterling has not fully priced in Brexit and if there's a meaningful downturn next year, sterling will weaken.

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Surveillance: Rate Rise Is a Golden Moment for Banks, Mayo Says Dec 14, 2016

Show notes

Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at CLSA Americas, says U.S. banks are very strong. Prior to that, Jean-Claude Trichet, former ECB president, discusses the role shadow banking played in the financial crisis. Then, Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, says the Fed has to catch up with the market. Finally, Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners' president and founder, says investors seeing sunny days ahead may be disappointed.

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Surveillance: Eichengreen on Globalization's New Normal Dec 13, 2016

Show notes

Barry Eichengreen, a professor at UC Berkeley, says faster growth heals a lot of wounds economically and politically. Prior to that, Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs Magazine, says Donald Trump picking Rex Tillerson for Secretary of State suggests a change in relations with Russia. Then, David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO, says BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse and Lloyds are attractively priced. Finally, Charles Plosser, former president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, says productivity is the big concern.

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Surveillance: Euro Bank Accounting Doesn't Provide Confidence Dec 12, 2016

Show notes

Gary Shilling, president and founder of A. Gary Shilling, and Kroll Bond Rating Agency's Chris Whalen, discuss their outlook for the European banking industry. Then, Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit discusses oil, the OPEC meeting and Donald Trump's possible pick for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson. Finally, Harm Bandholz, Unicredit's chief U.S. economist, says the Fed will keep the dot forecasts flat.

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Surveillance: We're Entering Deglobalization Era, Sharma Says Dec 09, 2016

Show notes

Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley's chief global strategist, says we're seeing a different deglobalization with Donald Trump than we saw in the 1930s and the trend is accelerating. Prior to that, Shannon O'Neil, Council on Foreign Relations' Latin America senior fellow, says the biggest challenge in Latin America is populism; the undermining of political institutions and checks and balances that make democracy work. Also, Steve Wieting, Citi Private Bank's global chief strategist, says Trump's tax cuts and substantial fiscal stimulus will lead to faster nominal growth.

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