Yet Another Value Podcast

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Adam Lindsay takes a TRIP through the LTRPA bull thesis Jul 14, 2021

Show notes

Adam Lindsay, founder and managing partner of Powell Anderson Capital Partners, discusses his bull thesis for Tripadvior (TRIP) and Liberty Tripadvisor (LTRPA). The bull thesis is nuanced, but much of it centers on TRIP's nascent Tripadvisor Plus business, which Adam thinks TRIP is uniquely suited to successfully launch and could drastically change their financials.
Adam's email: adam@pacp.com
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 TRIP Overview
6:30 Why is Tripadvisor Plus not Instant Booking 2.0?
13:00 How Plus could be a win/win/win
22:30 Why can't OTA competitors copy Plus if it works?
25:25 TRIP's crown jewel: experiences
33:00 Evaluating TRIP's management
38:00 Strained analogy comparing Twitter to TRIP
40:30 TRIP valuation
43:45 TRIP's cost structure going forward
50:05 Comparing Liberty Tripadvisor to Tripadvisor
55:00 Do TRIP and LTRPA get a "Maffei discount"?

Kyle Cerminara on deSPACing OppFi with $FGNA Jul 08, 2021

Show notes

Kyle Cerminara, President of FGNA, discusses his thesis for deSPACing with OppFi. Key topics include comparing OppFi to its closest competitors, how FNGA and OppFi arrived at their valuation, and addressing different regulatory risks for OppFi.
Kyle's twitter: https://twitter.com/kcerminara
OppFi / FGNA's SEC filings: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1818502&owner=exclude
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 OppFi overview
9:40 Comping OppFi to Upstart
16:35 Why are Katapult and Affirm part of OppFi's comp set?
19:00 OppFi's valuation
22:10 Why did OppFi agree to a deSpac at this valuation?
27:45 How going public gives OppFi a bigger microphone
29:35 Discussing negative headlines around FGF
35:25 Why did FGNA send out so many LOIs?
40:00 How did FGNA and OppFi handle the wait between the LOI in December and the definitive deal in February
45:20 Will banning "rent-a-bank" impact OppFi?
49:00 Discussing OppFi's ~30% charge off rate
50:50 Interest rate caps and pending litigation
55:20 Why didn't FGNA get a PIPE for the OppFi deal?
58:10 Discussing OppFi's management and Joe Moglia
1:06:45 Kyle's closing thoughts
1:09:15 Bonus question: how will reopening impact OppFi?

Uncovering CATO's value with Mike Melby Jun 30, 2021

Show notes

Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, makes a repeat appearance to discuss his investment in CATO. CATO is a small retailer with a rock solid balance sheet; Mike thinks their low multiple combined with a focus on returning cash flow to shareholders and some hidden tax and real estate assets creates an attractive investment opportunity.
Mike's first appearance on AXR: https://youtu.be/mSEgw2529Q4
Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Cato Overview
5:45 Cato's target demographics
8:45 Cato's online strategy (or lack thereof)
13:15 What's driven Cato's store base recently
15:30 Discussing CATO's management
22:05 Valuing CATO's land
27:35 Quantifying CATO's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)
30:15 What's the endgame for CATO?
37:25 Mike's closing thoughts on CATO

Brian Mosoff from Ether Capital on the bull case for Ether Jun 29, 2021

Show notes

Brian Mosoff, CEO of Ether Capital Corp, does a deep dive into the investment case for Ethereum. Key topics include how Ethereum is different than Bitcoin, how proof of stake and EIP-1559 will improve the Ethereum ecosystem, and why Ethereum today looks like investing in computer operating systems in the early 80s.
Disclosure: nothing in here is investing advice. Listeners/viewers should remember crypto is extremely risky and do their own work!
Brian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/brianmosoff
Ether Capital's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ethcap
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Brian's background
2:40 How is Ethereum different than Bitcoin?
10:55 Ether as the operating system / highway for Web 3.0
16:20 Who are the "operating system" competitors for Ether
23:05 How ether's transaction fee lead creates a big network effect
27:50 How do you value Ethereum?
30:50 Comparing crypto today to the dotcom bubble
37:00 Can you value Ether of their fee run rate?
47:00 Discussing staking and proof of stake
58:50 What is EIP-1559?
1:11:45 What is the risk to staking?
1:13:50 Brian's closing thoughts

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Randy Baron from Pinnacle Associates discusses Amyris's lead in synthetic biology Jun 23, 2021

Show notes

Randy Baron, Portfolio Manager at Pinnacle Associates, gives an overview of the Synthetic Biology space. Randy thinks "the 21st century is going to be a century of biology," and he discusses all the ways synthetic biology can change the world and why he thinks Amyris (AMRS) could be the biggest winner given their head start in the space.
Randy's Barron's write up on Synthetic Biology: https://www.barrons.com/articles/an-investors-guide-to-the-promise-of-synthetic-biology-51623275429
My thread with AMRS management quotes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407372814466826240
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Synthetic Biology Overview
9:00 Amyris's founding treating malaria
12:30 Squalene oil overview
19:00 What's the barrier to entry for synthetic biology?
23:45 Why is scaling so hard in synthetic biology?
25:05 Comping AMRS to ZY (Zymergen)
31:45 Discussing the value of AMRS's scaled molecules and pipeline
35:00 AMRS's consumer brands
37:20 Is having consumer brands and a research arm too good to be true?
39:20 How AMRS could improve vaccines
44:55 AMRS's zero calorie product, Purecane
49:50 Quantifying the value of AMRS's different parts (SOTP)
1:01:00 Discussing management and John Doerr's involvement
1:06:00 How do you evaluate AMRS's CEO?
1:11:45 Final thoughts

James Elbaor is investing in Dan Loeb at a Discount $TPOU Jun 17, 2021

Show notes

James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Third Point Investors (TPOU; trades in London).
TPOU is a closed-end investment company that invests into Third Point, Dan Loeb's hedge fund. TPOU consistently trades at a discount to NAV, and James thinks the combination of Third Point's investing prowess and TPOU's innovative buyback/tender mechanism creates a unique opportunity to generate attractive returns.
James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaor
Asset Value's May 26, 2021 activist letter to TPOU: https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/content/uploads/2021/05/AVI-Open-Letter-to-TPIL-Vote-Co_2.pdf
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 TPOU Overview
3:55 Why invest in TPOU instead of Third Point directly?
7:00 Third Point's return profile, past and forward looking
14:20 TPOU's discount and unique tender mechanism
17:30 Laying out a base case IRR to a potential March 31, 2024 tender
27:30 Pushback #1: Doesn't this deserve a discount given the fee structure?
34:25 Pushbuck #2: The corporate governance issues raised by Asset Value's letter
43:30 TPOU tax consequences for U.S. investors
45:05 Final thoughts on TPOU
50:00 Quick hit on Third Point / Vivendi / PSTH / UMG

Andrew Carreon from Emeth Value on Blackstone Minerals $BSM Jun 10, 2021

Show notes

Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Blackstone Minerals (BSM). Key points include how some of the company's undeveloped acreage could be a massive call option, how rising commodity prices impact BSM's value, and how BSM compares to other loose peers.
Side note: I had a puppy emergency for the last ten minutes of this podcast; you might see me glancing to the side a bit as my dog (Penny) tries to get my attention. I still think the conversation was great, but sorry for that!
Emeth Value's website: https://www.emethvaluecapital.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Blackstone Minerals (BSM) overview
4:40 How mineral rights work
7:15 Contrasting BSM versus TPL
11:50 How does BSM's acreage quality compare to TPL
15:10 BSM's LP structure versus traditional C-corps
18:55 Why BSM's NPV reserve calculation understates their value
23:25 What commodity prices are currently baked into BSM's share price?
31:30 Discussing BSM's GP
33:10 How their capex / farm out agreements work
37:45 Management's track record and pandemic performance
43:25 Drilling outlook for BSM's acreage
50:00 Diving into BSM's Austin Chalk acreage
53:15 Puppy emergency driven conclusion

Discussing the Cannabis opportunity and Glass House Group with Aaron Edelheit May 25, 2021

Show notes

Aaron Edelheit, founder of Mindset Capital and author of The Hard Break, comes on to discuss his thesis for investing in cannabis in general and Glass House Group in particular. Key topics include why interstate legalization could come sooner than later, how Glass House's California locations are a huge asset, and why U.S. Cannabis stocks trade don't trade in the U.S.
Aaron's Book, The Hard Break: https://amzn.to/34dKyYL
Aaron's article on Glass House: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-most-valuable-greenhouse-in-america
Aaron's article on interstate commerce: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/are-interstate-commerce-restrictions
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Disclaimer
2:25 Why is investing in cannabis interesting now?
11:00 Why is cannabis not a complete commodity once legalized?
16:10 Why is California so great for growing cannabis?
25:05 How retail can be a moat in cannabis
29:40 Discussing the three way SPAC merger that will form Glass House
38:30 When will cannabis go interstate?
43:15 How to think about valuation of Glass House
47:00 What's the difference between BRND in Canada and MRCQF on OTC?

Bitcoin futures arb and trading the crypto market with David Fauchier May 20, 2021

Show notes

The crypto market currently feels like the wild wild west. It can take only a week or two to run through a full cycle (a bull and a bear market), and coins that are explicitly a joke can be valued at billions of dollars on the back of a tweet from the right celebrity.
David Fauchier, fund manager at Nickel Digital, pops on to discuss how a professional approaches investing in the crypto world. Topics include bitcoin future arb, how to approach the risk of fraud or an exchange blowing up, and why it makes more sense to invest in crypto directly than to invest in mining.
My post on BlockFi and Bitcoin Futures Arb: https://yetanothervalueblog.com/2021/...
David's Twitter: https://twitter.com/dfauchier
David's other podcast covering the crypto market: https://blog.thinknewfound.com/podcas...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 Overview of Nickel Digital and David's background
4:55 Bitcoin futures arb overview
11:05 Risks and negatives to the arb trade.
15:58 Bitcoin : Ethereum :: Unproductive : Productive?
23:10 Digital Horses and other productive uses for blockchain
25:40 Fraud risk in crypto trading
32:00 Could the crypto exchanges blow up?
50:10 Does cryptos 24/7 nature and extreme volatility minimize blow up risk?
53:20 Buying crypto versus buying miners
1:04:30 How David evaluates managers in the crypto space

Chris McIntyre thinks Garrett Motion could hit turbo mode Post-Reorg $GTX May 17, 2021

Show notes

Chris McIntyre, founder of McIntyre partnerships, discusses his investment thesis for Garrett Motion (GTX). GTX just emerged from bankruptcy after filing in 2020, and Chris thinks the stock is significantly too cheap. He walks through how Garrett's near term projections are significantly understated, how minority shareholders are aligned with the new controlling shareholders, and why the company is likely to "melt" at a much slower rate than the market is pricing in.
Chris's GTX website: gtxisacheapstock.com
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 Garrett Background
8:40 Why Garrett is better than your average auto-supplier
11:15 Why wasn't the bankruptcy auction more robust?
16:15 Why Garrett filed for bankruptcy
25:55 Risk from Garrett's controlling shareholders
32:30 Garrett's management team
36:00 Garrett's valuation and prefs versus common
43:25 Why Chris thinks Garrett can far exceed their bankruptcy projections
52:10 Medium to longer term capital allocation at Garrett
56:35 Garrett's melting ice cube
1:01:30 Closing Thoughts

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