Yet Another Value Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel on their speculative deep value play, $AAMC Sep 10, 2021

Show notes

Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel discuss their new position in AAMC. AAMC is an illiquid microcap, which significantly increases its risk, but Jeff and Thomas think the company is likely to have a successful settlement of their preferred stock. After settlement, AAMC should have net cash per share in excess of today's share price, and then the company could make a significantly accrettive acquisition.
Jeff's original tweet on AAMC: https://twitter.com/ragnarisapirate/status/1433519100152721412?s=20
Jeff's YAVP first appearance on THRY: https://youtu.be/196QthwtDMk
Thomas's first YAVP appearance on GOED: https://youtu.be/eKnnl7AaMMA
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 AAMC overview
6:40 Some extra AAMC goodies
7:25 Why will Luxor settle their prefs?
11:40 Bill Erbey's background
16:15 Discussing a potential crypto acquisition
23:10 How a crypto transaction could rhyme with SPRT
28:00 Discussing a fix and flip
34:55 Other possible deals
36:55 The longshot Erbey / Blackrock lawsuit
41:55 AAMC's cash burn
43:30 Could AAMC's new execs reinforce the potential upside here?
45:00 Closing thoughts

Kyler Hasson helps me bag hold $ATUS Sep 08, 2021

Show notes

Kyler Hasson, Portfolio Manager at Delta Investment Management, discusses our mutual position / bag-holding in Altice. Key topics include what bulls could be missing, the differences between Altice and Charter, and how regulation could impact cable.
My tweet thread on ATUS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1435228524399448065?s=20
Kyler's write up: https://concentratedcompounding.substack.com/p/altice
My write up: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/altice-is-the-best-large-cap-stock
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:23 ATUS overview
2:25 Comping Altice today to Charter in 2018
4:00 What are we seeing that the stock market is missing
7:55 How much weight should we put on Altice's bad quarter
11:30 Does Altice management have a handle on the business?
21:30 Discussing CABO's valuation versus the major cable peers
23:00 How Altice's pricing, cost, and FTTH strategy differs from peers
28:00 What if Altice needs to roll back prices or invest back into opex?
31:00 Could Altice pull a Dell?
37:55 More on Altice's FTTH strategy
44:00 Talking about Altice's different parts
47:45 What could break the cable thesis?
56:00 Quick discussion of satellite / Starlink internet risk
58:30 Cable regulatory concerns
1:04:30 Kyler's closing thoughts

Brian Laks covers the #uranium and Nexgen bull cases $NXE Sep 04, 2021

Show notes

Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for uranium. Key topics include why this time could be different, breaking down the supply / demand curve that has him so excited, and discussing why NexGen (NXE) is such an interesting way to play uranium.
Brian's twitter account: https://twitter.com/brianlaks
Kuppy's uranium shortage post: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 Uranium overview
2:35 What got Old West so excited about uranium?
5:05 Discussing the uranium cost curve
7:35 Uranium supply / demand imbalance
10:15 Uranium's cycles since 2000
15:15 Why is the cycle happening now?
19:15 What's to stop supply from coming on if prices start to rise?
25:40 When and how do mothballed facilities start coming back on?
30:00 The Sprott Uranium Trust
40:20 Nexgen (NXE) overview
46:20 Nexgen's low cost mine
49:10 Nexgen's timeline to completing their mine
52:55 Discussing Nexgen's uranium price assumptions
56:30 Why won't this go into mine development hell?
58:40 Nexgen's base case upside

SHOW LESS

Jon Cukiewar lays out the goeasy thesis $GSY $EHMEF Sep 01, 2021

Show notes

Jon Cukiewar, Founder of Sohra Peak Capital, discusses his ivnestment thesis for goeasy (in Canada under $GSY; in U.S. under $EHMEF). Jon does a deep dive into the company's history before explaining how they can get such great returns and why he sees continued strong growth in their future.
Jon's twitter: https://twitter.com/JonCukierwar
Sohra Peak's website: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/disclaimer
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 goeasy overview and background
15:00 Discussing goeasy's valuation versus U.S. peers
18:15 How can goeasy consistently get over 20% returns on equity
28:40 goeasy's strong capital allocation
30:45 Why is goeasy paying a dividend?
35:55 How do goeasy's borrowers perform when the economy takes a turn?
38:35 Regulatory environment and concerns
43:15 What's goeasy's advantage as they move into new lending niches?
44:45 Revisiting valuation / how does this outperform going forward?
55:25 Discussing the lendcare acquisition
59;40 Jon's closing thoughts

A $GOED investment thesis that WARRANTs a look with Thomas Braziel Aug 26, 2021

Show notes

Thomas Braziel, President of 507 Capital, discusses his investment in $GOED. Key topics include addressing the (many) red flags around the investment, how Thomas found the company and why he likes the set up so much, and why investing in stocks with some hair on them can deliver serious alpha.
Thomas's twitter: https://twitter.com/ThomasBraziel
My notes on GOED: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1430382893692506112?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Thomas's legendary Ethenex trade
3:10 $GOED overview
8:00 Background to the set up / how the warrants came publicly traded
11:00 $GOED merger / financing background
14:00 The massive stock offering discussion
17:00 Do you believe $GOED's claims that they have sourcing and distribution advantages?
20:25 Why was AC the seller instead of the buyer?
24:30 Do you worry about $GOED auditor switch / financial statements?
27:30 Why did GOED keep recutting the deal to give AC more cash?
31:20 GOED's rebate accounting
34:20 Capital allocation going forward
37:25 General discussion of why buying stocks with hair is riskier but carries huge potential rewards
38:30 GOED management's alignment
40:05 GOED's activist potential
43:10 Quickly painting a reasonable bull / valuation case
48:05 General discussion of swinging hard when you find a good pitch
49:30 How capital light will GOED be?
52:10 Quick Tesla discussion
53:25 Thomas's closing thoughts (and a quick ICLTF mention!)

Louis Camhi presents an ORIGINal investment thesis $ORGN Aug 20, 2021

Show notes

Louis Camhi, a private investor, discusses his thesis for Origin Materials (ORGN). Origin is a recent deSPAC that has seen a brutal sell off, but Louis thinks the company represents a hyper skewed risk reward, albeit one with a VC style downside (i.e. if it doesn't work out, they'll be worth basically nothing). Louis breaks down what Origin does, why he's so confident that they can build their plans on time and on budget, the demand he sees for their products, and a bunch of other pieces of the Origin thesis.
Louis's twitter handle: https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 Origin overview
4:05 How Origin's product is carbon negative
6:10 Discussing Origin's SPAC sponsor credentials
9:10 Why were these the right sponsors to take Origin public?
11:25 Timeline for Origin to get to revenue and scale up
14:45 Origin 1 and 2 cost and backlog strength
18:40 Could Origin's backlog be impacted by construction delays?
20:30 How unique is Origin's process and technology
25:40 Discussing Origin's cost and if this can work without getting an "ESG" premium price
27:50 Construction cost risk
32:25 Various upside and downside risks
35:00 Origin's financing plans
39:40 Origin's long term margin outlook
41:25 Why didn't the SPAC sponsors put equity into the deal?
46:25 Comping Origin to other peak SPACmania buzzy deals
55:00 What other deSPACs are catching Louis's eye
58:20 Quick Katapult and Ironsource mention
1:00:35 A little longer ALIT mention

Mike Mitchell on his big bet on lumber and GreenFirst $ICLTF Aug 18, 2021

Show notes

Mike Mitchell, the king of lumber fintwit, discusses his big bet on GreenFirst. Key topics include how Mike found GreenFirst (back when it was Itasca Capital), how he came to know and trust the management team, why he's so bullish on lumber, and why the thinks the deal to buy Rayonier's lumber assets is such a good one.
Note that GreenFirst is a microcap Canadian company and much riskier than your average stock, so please remember nothing in this podcast is investing advice and to do your own due diligence.
*During the podcast, Mike mentions smoking ribs for Kyle. Kyle has assured me that Mike's ribs are excellent.
Mike's thread on ICLTF: https://twitter.com/ignorenarrative/s...
My GreenFirst background tweets: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 GreenFirst overview and background
6:45 Who the heck closes a deal on a Saturday?
7:15 How Mike came to know and trust management
13:35 Mike smokes ribs for Kyle*
17:20 Discussing the various bear cases surrounding the FGF universe
20:45 Comping FGF to some of the early John Malone transactions
22:50 Betting on great management teams
28:00 Lumber fundamentals overview
37:45 Some more discussion on the complexity of lumber prices
41:40 What drove the recent lumber price crash?
44:15 Can ICLTF make money with lumber prices where they are currently?
49:35 If ICLTF is buying assets so cheap, why is Rayonier selling?
56:20 Viewing the rights offering through the bull and bear lens
1:06:15 GreenFirst's new management team (the people who will actually operate the assets)
1:10:25 Comping the assets GreenFirst is buying to other industry deals
1:14:00 What happens if lumber prices and utilization don't improve?

Sean Iddings on the bull case for $EXPI Aug 06, 2021

Show notes

Sean Iddings, an entrepreneur and microcap investor, discusses his high conviction position in eXp World Holdings (EXPI). EXPI is a hyper growth company that is attacking the real estate brokerage business with an interesting model. Sean breaks down the business, the upside he sees in the company, and addresses some of the red flags surrounding the stock.
Sean’s EXPI write up: https://www.thewoodshedd.com/posts/2021-07-09-highconviction-copy/#how-to-value-expi
Sean's twitter: https://twitter.com/iddings_sean
My notes on EXPI, including some interesting proxy details: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1423081507132936194?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 What is EXPI?
8:55 How EXPI harnesses the power of incentives
10:05 Comparing EXPI to a multi-level marketing company (EXPI)
18:00 Why aren't we seeing operating leverage?
22:30 EXPI's expansion opportunities
26:30 Discussing EXPI's copycats
29:20 Is how the employees relate to the stock price concerning?
35:45 Veirbela and Success magazine; critical assets or overrated?
45:50 Sean's closing thoughts

Chris Krug from Chatham Harbor Capital on Performant $PFMT Jul 28, 2021

Show notes

Chris Krug, President of Chatham Harbor Capital, breaks down his thesis on PFMT, including why he thinks the stock could be a multi-multi-bagger.
Chris's twitter: https://twitter.com/chcap2016
My thread on PFMT notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:05 PFMT Valuation Outline
4:40 PFMT business overview
15:15 How PFMT "lands and expands" verticals
18:55 How PFMT integrates and ramps up new contracts
27:55 Why can't a start up come and displace PFMT?
32:05 What PFMT's financials look like once all their new clients onboard
35:40 Quantifying PFMT's margin outlook
37:25 Why can't HMS respond to PFMT?
40:20 Why is Parthenon selling so aggressively?
44:20 PFMT's capital allocation
47:25 Would healthcare reform hurt or help PFMT?
49:15 What could kill this investment?
53:10 Closing thoughts

SHOW LESS

Artem Fokin from Caro-Kann on Burford's bull case Jul 18, 2021

Show notes

Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Burford (BUR). Burford is a litigation finance firm, and Artem makes a compelling case that they are both undervalued on an asset basis and have a moat giving their scale.
Caro-Kann's website: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
My thread on Burford prep: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1415795903751983109?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Burford Overview
6:00 Does Burford bring something other than money to the table?
13:45 Is Burford's scale a competitive advantage?
19:30 Why can't a major PE or IB launch a Burford competitor?
23:10 Are the returns to litigation financing sustainable?
37:10 How do you value Burford?
42:20 Burford's first component of value: Balance sheet investments
49:05 Buford's second value component: Asset management
54:50 Burford's third value component: YPF case
58:30 How Burford has valued YPF over the years
1:10:25 Why should YPF settle in dollars instead of pesos?
1:14:20 Discussing the bear case around the management team
1:23:45 Closing thoughts

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected