Yet Another Value Podcast

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Aaron Edelheit is high on Cannabis stocks Nov 04, 2021

Show notes

Aaron Edelheit returns to the podcast to discuss all of the opportunities he's seeing in the cannabis world and why he's chosen now to launch a Cannabis focused fund.
Aaron's Cannabis manifesto: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-cannabis-manifesto
Seth Rogen profile I mention during the pod: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/magazine/seth-rogen.html
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
2:45 Why is Aaron launching a cannabis fund now?
12:00 Professional athletes and cannabis
16:55 How Cannabis today reminds Aaron of single family homes after the GFC
26:50 Aaron's views on federal legalization
37:35 Is Aaron more interested in the direct cannabis plays or the "picks and shovel" providers?
45:50 Using Verano to highlight the growth and valuations Aaron is seeing
54:00 Will the industry stay vertically integrated, or will we start seeing more focused players?
58:55 The tax issues with cannabis plays and why EBITDA is so important here

Jeremy Raper discusses POSaBIT $POSAF Nov 03, 2021

Show notes

Jeremy Raper makes his record fifth podcast appearance to discuss his latest high conviction idea: POSaBIT (POSAF). POSaBIT is a microcap company trading on a very small foreign exchange, so risk is certainly elevated here and listeners should remember to do their own work / this is not investing advice. However, Jeremy believes that the company's strong growth and big moat far outweigh the various red flags and risk around it, and that the stock is significantly undervalued based on where much slower growing peers are trading.
Jeremy's seeking alpha article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462310-posabit-systems-3x-upside-potential
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 POSaBIT overview
14:30 Diving into POSaBIT's moat
22:10 Why POSaBIT's take rate is sustainable
28:45 If Cannabis got legalized tomorrow, what would happen to POSaBIT?
33:30 Is private equity rolling up the industry a risk?
37:10 Discussing valuation
46:55 Breaking down the RTO / reverse merger red flag
53:10 Jeremy's closing thoughts

Martin Werner of DD3 Capital on the Codere / DDMX SPAC deal Nov 02, 2021

Show notes

Martin Werner, co-founding partner of DD3 Capital, discusses DDMX's deal to deSPAC with Codere Online. Key topics include what DDMX was looking for in a deal, how DDMX worked with their partners in structuring their deal, and why DDMX thinks Codere Online's omnichannel presence gives them a leg up in attacking and winning Latam markets. Towards the end, Martin discusses how he's looking at Betterware (BWMX, which was DD3's first SPAC) and what DD3 will be looking at in their SPAC going forward.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:45 What DDMX was looking for in a deal
3:10 DDMX's proxy and the companies they passed on
8:30 DDMX's forward purchase agreement with Baron Funds
12:35 What happened between contacting Codere in January and signing the BCA in June?
15:15 What attracted DDMX to Codere online?
18:40 Codere's Spanish market share and outlook
21:55 Discussing Codere's projections and the assumptions behind them
25:05 Codere's longer term projection and financials
26:00 How lower redemptions will allow Codere to accelerate growth
28:00 Codere's phase 3 plans to move into the U.S. market
31:35 Similarities between Codere Online and Golden Nugget Online
32:30 Why DDMX isn't subject to the winner's curse
35:30 Wrapping up the Codere discussion
36:35 Betterware (BWMX) discussion
39:55 Breaking down the distributor churn at BWMX
44:10 Comparing BWMX's post-COVID slowdown to cable
46:30 BWMX near term headwinds
48:05 What DD3 looks when deSPACing companies

Nitin Sacheti breaks down $VATE's SOTP Oct 26, 2021

Show notes

Nitin Sacheti. CIO of Papyrus Capital and PM at ARS Investment Partners, breaks down his thesis for Innovate (VATE). VATE used to be known as HCHC. HCHC was a mishmash of interesting but disparate assets with a huge cost base. Following an activist battle in late 2019 / early 2020, a new management team was brought in and they have sold off noncore assets while dramatically reduing corporate overhead. Nitin believes the remaining assets are all uniquely valuable, and each could be worth more than VATE's current market cap on their own. With several looming catalysts and inflection points, Nitin thinks the next year or two could cause the market to rerate VATE closer to its intrinsic value.
My thread on $VATE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1452377035897200653?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 VATE Overview
3:05 Segment #1: DBM Overview
5:15 Segment #2: Life Sciences Overview
7:15 Segment #3: Broadcasting Overview
12:10 Discussing VATE's new management team
21:45 Breaking down the Broadcast business
30:00 Pushing back on the broadcast business plan
35:50 How to value broadcast's spectrum
37:55 Is broadcast spectrum still valuable in a 5G world?
42:20 Discussing DBM's moat and value
47:40 What does R2 (life science's main asset) do?
53:20 Walking through VATE's SOTP value
1:00:50 How to look at VATE's recent related party deals
1:05:25 Discussing VATE's chairman and largest shareholder
1:08:15 What's the endgame for VATE?
Additional disclaimer: Today’s discussion may contain forward looking statements all statements made that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainty; actual results may differ materially. Please refer to ARS's website for important legal and disclosure information: www.arsinvestmentpartners.com

Felix Narhi discusses Stitch Fix $SFIX Oct 20, 2021

Show notes

Felix Narhi, CIO and Portfolio Manager at PenderFund, discusses his investment in Stitch Fix (SFIX). Key topics include what Stitch Fix's Act 2 looks like, why negative anecdata from first time users doesn't worry Felix, and what separates Stitch Fix from other online retailers.
Felix's Q2 letter: https://www.penderfund.com/commentaries/the-managers-commentary-q2-2021-2/
My SFIX tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1450509121661308928?s=20
Felix's Twitter: https://twitter.com/PenderFelix
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:10 Stitch Fix Overview
2:40 Addressing the negative anecdata
6:30 What does SFIX's transition to Act 2 look like?
9:10 Why is SFIX's data and data scientist focus an advantage?
16:50 What would an Act 3 look like?
19:35 Is it concerning Katrina Lake (the founder) stepped down as CEO?
23:45 Discussing the stylist hours worked controversy
31:30 Stitch Fix's inventory changes
35:30 Will brands pull from Stitch Fix at some point in the future?
41:15 Will Stitch Fix ever charge for the data they give brands?
44:30 Why isn't Stitch Fix growing faster?
49:50 Quantifying Stitch Fix's valuation
54:20 Stitch Fix's private market and strategic value
57:30 Does Stitch Fix need physical locations?

Randy Baron discusses Renalytix $RNLX Oct 14, 2021

Show notes

Randy Baron, one of the most popular YAVP guests, returns to discuss his investment thesis on Renalytix (RNLX). Randy sees similarities between RNLX and EXAS, which was a controversial stock that has rocketed over the last few years as the company's diagnostic product gained momentum. While not without risk, Randy thinks RNLX could be even bigger if successful as they are attacking the much larger Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) market, and he discusses all of the signs he sees that the company is about to inflect.
Randy's first appearance on Amyris (AMRS): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCKxUHfCoQQ&t=1s
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 RNLX overview
8:55 Where does RNLX fall into CKD?
14:00 Why now is the time for RNLX in CKD
20:40 How RNLX can operate even without MICT
24:30 More on RNLX and Medicare
25:30 When will RNLX get FDA approval?
33:40 What if RNLX doesn't get FDA approval?
37:30 RNLX's CEO and founder, James McCullough
43:40 Why is RNLX so under the radar?
46:40 Comping RNLX to Theranos
50:00 Randy's closing thoughts

Tim Weber is bullish $AMPY despite the oil spill Oct 08, 2021

Show notes

Tim Weber, a private investor, discusses the bull thesis for $AMPY. We're in a period of heightened uncertainty, as the company's Beta asset was responsible for an oil spill last weekend. However, Tim think the market has shot AMPY and priced in a worst case scenario without factoring in lots of other factors (the likelihood a ship is responsible for the spill, that this spill is much smaller than precedent spills and damages shoudl thus be significantly lower, etc.).
AMPY is a microcap oil and gas company with high leverage and ongoing risk from the oil spill. Investors should remember the extremely high degree of risk here, that nothing on this podcast is investing advice, and that everyone is encouraged to do their own work!
Tim's AMPY write up: https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Extra Disclosures
3:10 AMPY Overview
6:25 Diving into the spill
9:40 The Plains All American (PAA) Precdent
15:20 Does AMPY's small size mean they don't have the resources to survive the spill?
20:00 Is there a chance the net liability to AMPY is ultimately zero?
22:00 Discussing the current regulatory / fine envrionment
22:45 AMPY's solvency and liquidity
28:45 Could AMPY file Beta without impacting the rest of the company?
30:30 Will the spill push AMPY to sell assets?
33:30 AMPY's SOTP and PV-10
39:10 Could regulators pull the Beta lease?
44:50 Recovery risk if a ship is found at fault
46:40 Could AMPY's hedge book be an issue?
50:15 Is the delay from AMPY alerting regulators hurt them?
56:00 Tim's closing thoughts

Leo Kang from Plum Capital on $ATTO Sep 30, 2021

Show notes

Leo Kang, author of the excellent Plum Capital Substack, comes on to discuss his thesis on Atento (ATTO). With 3 legacy private equity holders owning more than 60% of the stock, Leo think the company is set for a sale, and a cheap multiple, continued operating momentum, and health dose of leverage could create for serious upside in a process.
Leo's ATTO write up: https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/at...
My ATTO notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 ATTO overview
3:15 ATTO's ownership history
7:45 The "Big 3's" incentive to sell
9:20 Pushing back on the sales incentive
13:50 Discussing valuation
15:30 ATTO's operating momentum
18:30 What does ATTO do?
22:30 How does ATTO compete with?
24:30 Is there a trend towards insourcing costumer service?
28:15 What happens if ATTO's loses the Telefonica contract?
33:30 Can we read anything into ATTO's lack of capital returns?
37:55 Discussing the upside from the Telefonica contract
40:20 Comping peer multiples
43:05 Does the Telefonica contract line up well with a sales process?
46:25 ATTO's attempts to move into the U.S.
50:45 ATTO's foreign exchange risk
52:55 Closing thoughts

Ben Claremon on $LUMN Sep 27, 2021

Show notes

Ben Claremon, Partner at Cove Street Capital, discusses his thesis on Lumen. Lumen is a complicated story and a bit of a battleground stock, but Ben think the company is trading at a large discount to their asset value and is making moves to unlock that value.
Ben's first YAVP appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdU
Ben's Compounders podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Qbcrw84MDaJ3CZUNuqOxu?si=vD-uIjqVR4G_SFwH_ALVEg&dl_branch=1
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Lumen Overview
5:55 Why didn't Lumens' old management team believe in Fiber?
13:30 Discussing the proxy statement and management incentives
19:15 How can telecom investors get over their Lumen baggage?
25:15 Looking at Lumen as a special situation
35:00 What would Lumen look like if they sold all of their consumer business?
37:05 Lumen's valuation and sum of the parts
39:15 Lumen's looming dividend cut?
47:00 Government subsidies (CAF going away; RDOF replacing it?)
54:40 Why invest in Lumen vs. a cleaner story like Frontier (FYBR)
1:03:25 Closing thoughts

The Bear Cave is Watching $YOU Sep 24, 2021

Show notes

Edwin Dorsey, founder of The Bear Cave, discusses his bearish note on Clear Secure (YOU). Bulls think Clear is a product members love with a clear moat and a long growth runway; Edwin sees a company with lots of consumer complaints that has been around for almost two decades and is still losing money while losing economics to key partners like airports.
The Bear Cave's YOU note: https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/pr...
My Clear tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Edwin's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Clear Overview
3:25 What is the crux of the bear thesis?
4:55 What's wrong with Clear's business model?
9:20 Why won't American partner with Clear?
11:45 Discussing the San Jose concession
13:55 Clear's NPS score vs. their BBB rating
21:10 How Clear calculates their member count
23:15 Are Clear's churn numbers as good as they look?
27:00 Clear's strategic fit in bundles
29:55 Clear's growth opportunities
33:20 Why wouldn't Apple or Google win the "entry" game versus Clear?
34:15 Is Clear a COVID beneficiary?
36:30 Can clear become a 12x/day product?
41:20 Clear's history of retaining key partners
43:30 Will Clear run afoul of airlines in the long term?
48:30 Closing thoughts

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