Yet Another Value Podcast

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Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group on the awful $MSGN / $MSGE deal Apr 05, 2021

Show notes

Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss the proposed merger between MSGE and MSGN. To put it bluntly, the deal is a disaster with absolutely no strategic rational, and Jon walks through all of the reasons the deal doesn't make sense.
Jon's first podcast appearance: https://youtu.be/J2trsM41DTU
Boyar's letter to the MSGN board: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/blog/the-boyars-value-groups-letter-to-james-dolan/
If you're interested in hearing more about Jon's take on the different pieces of the MSG empire, email finfo@boyarvaluegroup.com and put Dolan in subject line.
Chapters
0:00 intro
1:15 MSGE / MSGN overview and background
8:30 Trying to layout the thesis behind the merger
11:25 Diving into the sports betting upside
15:15 Pushing back further on the deal bear case
20:30 Discussing majority of minority provisions
23:55 MSGE's Sphere
28:35 Dolan's capital allocation track record
32:30 Who else might bid for MSGN

Edwin Dorsey from Bear Cave on Otonomo $SAII Mar 31, 2021

Show notes

Edwin Dorsey from the Bear Cave (https://thebearcave.substack.com/) returns to discuss a high conviction long idea, Otonomo. Otonomo is a "leading platform and marketplace for vehicle data" and is going public through a SPAC merger with SAII (will trade under ONTO post-deal). Edwin thinks the opportunity for the company is enormous, and if they successfully execute they could be a multi-bagger.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:00 Otonomo overview
6:15 How can Otonomo make money selling car data?
11:30 How does OEM partnerships work?
14:00 Why will automotive data be a winner take all market?
25:25 How Otonomo could undercut Root and Metromile
29:00 Discussing the Otonomo management team
33:50 The SAII PIPE group: good or bad?
35:50 Edwin's take on the SAII SPAC group
38:00 How big is Otonomo's TAM?
40:25 How the current SPAC market could create opportunity
43:00 Warrants are risky; discussing SAII risk/reward
49:30 What pushback has Edwin gotten on the idea?

Jeff Moore discusses Thryv $THRY Mar 29, 2021

Show notes

Micro-cap investor Jeff Moore (who also writes http://ragnarisapirate.blogspot.com/) discusses his bull case for Thryv (THRY). Thryv is an interesting company: their core value comes from their legacy Yellow Pages business, and they're using the cash flows and relationships from that melting ice cube to start up a SMB SaaS service. Jeff argues there's huge upside as the company taps their customer base, acquires smaller competitors, and the market starts to recognize the value of their SaaS business.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Thryv Overview
6:15 Thryv Software discussion
12:25 Why is a SaaS business attached to a Yellow Page company?
14:30 Why is churn so high?
20:05 Who are Thryv's competitors
22:00 Don't all yellow page companies go bankrupt?
28:30 Walking through Thryv's SOTP
40:25 Discussing Thryv's management team
45:45 What to make of the CEO buying stock while largest shareholders sell down?

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Cove Street Capital on Viasat $VSAT Mar 23, 2021

Show notes

Eugene Robin and Ben Claremon from Cove Street Capital discuss the battleground stock Viasat (VSAT). They discuss the biggest misperception among bears, why they think VSAT's government business is a hidden gem, and how the risk from Elon Musk's SpaceX (and other burgeoning competitors) is overblown.
Some relevant links:
Cove Street's March 2020 Viasat deck: http://covestreetcapital.com/eugene-robin-discusses-viasat-on-the-valuewalk-podcast/
Kerrisdale's short report: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/investments/viasat-inc-vsat/
Cove Street's Kerrisdale rebuttal: http://covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Satellite-Potshots-ViaSat.pdf
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 Viasat overview
8:15 Residential Broadband: the biggest VSAT misperception
15:45 Is Cove Street too close to VSAT?
25:00 Could a big increase in capacity create issues?
31:00 VSAT's all-in cost advantage and the SpaceX risk
36:45 VSAT's hidden jewel: the Government business
43:50 "Stock price bro" and capital allocation bear case
52:50 Why GEO can compete with LEO
1:06:00 Ben's quick run through of lingering points
1:17:00 Quantifying a reasonable bull case

Mostly Borrowed Ideas on Autodesk ( $ADSK) Mar 22, 2021

Show notes

Abdullah Al-Rezwan from Mostly Borrowed Ideas ( https://mbi-deepdives.com/ ) returns to the podcast to discuss his latest research pick, Autodesk (ADSK). The company successfully did the transition from a licensed to subscription business model, and with that transition behind them, Abdullah discusses why the future is brighter than ever and why Autodesk will benefit from an infrastructure boom.
Abdullah / MBI's first appearance on ETSY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muhNdYcNHgk
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Being a generalist versus expert
7:15 Autodesk overview
17:30 Breaking down Autodesk's different segments
26:10 Discussing some more Autodesk bear points
35:50 Can Autodesk use their distribution to launch new products?
40:45 Analyzing ADSK's CEO and their LT targets
53:35 Noncompliant user opportunity
1:02:20 Valuation discussion

Will Barnes from In Practise on Naked Wines Mar 18, 2021

Show notes

Will Barnes, co-founder of inpractise.com, discusses the investment case for Naked Wines. The company's been a huge COVID beneficiary, but despite a nice run Will thinks the market is underestimating the long term potential of Naked Wines and how advantaged the business is against the rest of the wine industry.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
7:00 Naked Wines Overview
12:25 How Naked Wines Angel model works
15:15 Why isn't this Blue Apron 2.0?
22:00 Naked's scale and business model gives them a cost advantage
28:00 Would winemakers leave as they got bigger?
32:30 Can Naked Wines grow beyond the angel wine model?
38:45 Naked Wines' data gives them a moat
45:35 Naked Wines' Postcard anecdote
49:35 Valuation and how sustainable is the COVID boost
52:30 Reasonable 2025 bull case
57:45 Potential "level up" opportunities

Jacob Rubin from Philosophy Capital on $ESGC Mar 02, 2021

Show notes

Jacob Rubin, managing member and CIO at Philosophy Capital, joins the podcast to talk about his long thesis on Eros STX (ESGC), how he thinks the stock could respond to a global refi, and the long term upside as they successful integrate their assets.
Disclosure: ESGC is a small cap and has a going concern risk; please do your own work and remember nothing on here is investing advice
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:00 Eros overview
6:00 Pattern recognition from Loral (LORL)
10:15 LORL's upside optionality / Canadian C-Band
16:00 ESGC's solvable credit problem
19:30 Eros's history with short reports
22:40 Taking comfort in Liberty and Eros's CFO DD
29:30 Pushing back on asset value
36:00 Quantifying the post-refi upside
52:40 Pushing back on the STX upside
1:00:30 Pushing back the Eros Now Upside
1:11:40 Quantifying the upside
Philosophy Capital's Website: http://philosophycap.com/

Joe Boskovich on WildBrain $WLDBF Feb 18, 2021

Show notes

Joe Boskovich, a partner at Old West Investment Management, dives deep into his investment thesis on WildBrian (WLDBF), including why he thinks Apple could drive the Peanuts brand to the next level and how WildBrain Spark could be a huge growth story.
Joe's Twitter: https://twitter.com/boskovic64
Old West Investment website: https://www.oldwestim.com/press
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:10 Quick discussion of IDT and their spins
5:55 WildBrain investment thesis overview
21:30 Devil's Advocate: Haven't these franchises been passed around a lot?
35:00 Could the Apple partnership get the Peanuts brand growing again?
46:35 WildBrain Spark: just another YouTube channel, or real growth asset?
1:00:45 How does this compare to LGF's valuation?
1:10:55 Quantifying WildBrain's upside ~3 years out
1:19:30 Bonus point: could WildBrain go D2C?

Shehryar Khursheed from Return on Capital on $RH's bull case Feb 02, 2021

Show notes

Shehryar Khursheed, the founder of Return on Capital, discusses the battleground stock RH (FKA Restoration Hardware), what Berkshire Hathaway saw in the company, what short sellers missed on the company, and his vision for the company over the next few years.
Return on Capital website: https://returnoncap.com/
Return on Capital Twitter: https://twitter.com/CapitalTalk2
Note that we had brief technical issues around the 22:40 mark of the video; we've done our best to edit those out but there is still a brief gap / jump. For those watching on YouTube, my video freezes for ~5 mins at the 17 min mark.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:35 RH Overview
6:45 What is RH's moat and how do they build their brand?
10:15 How building restaurants reinforces RH's brand
14:55 Endgame for RH's brand
18:00 Can RH's CEO hit his RSU target of $800/share?
19:45 Is RH's 60 gallery target reasonable?
24:40 What do margins look like in the long run?
27:15 RH's international opportunity
31:05 Exploring the bear case further
38:55 What's the RH endgame?
42:20 RH's membership program
45:35 Last hits on RH

Al Grujic from All of Us Financial on Robinhood's issues and $GME squeeze Feb 01, 2021

Show notes

Al Grujic, founder and CEO of All of Us Financial (https://www.allofusfinancial.com/), comes on to discuss the Stonk market. Topics include Robinhood stopping trading last week, gamma squeezes, and how a stock can have over 100% short interest.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 Al's background
4:20 Why All of Us restricted trading last week
9:40 Why couldn't cash accounts buy meme stocks last week?
11:45 How should Robinhood have handled their messaging?
14:45 How can Gamestop (or any stock) have over 100% short interest?
19:25 How up to date is short interest reporting?
22:00 Gamma squeezes and options
23:55 Market manipulation
27:45 Risks of social media pumps going forward
32:15 The "boring" stuff of revamping the clearing system

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