Yet Another Value Podcast

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Mario Cibelli on the $WWE bull case Jan 29, 2021

Show notes

Mario Cibelli, the founder of Marathon Partners and breakout star of the book Netflixed (https://amzn.to/34cim9F), makes his second podcast appearance to discuss the bull case for WWE.
Mario's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1296130870949097472?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:10 WWE Overview
4:30 Sale of WWE network
9:10 Laying out the upside for WWE
16:20 What if the next domestic contract is a down round?
20:40 Ratings since the move to fox
21:40 How the pandemic will improve the product going forward
26:00 Vince McMahon risk
29:40 What if the WWE can't find the next Rock?
32:35 The time I went to WrestleMania
34:20 WWE's other content plays and expansion plans
43:35 How WWE's rights ownership is an advantage
46:40 Our favorite SuperStars

Elliot Turner on Twitter $TWTR Jan 22, 2021

Show notes

Elliot Turner of RGA (http://rgaia.com) makes a repeat appearance to provide a quick update on Dropbox (DBX), discuss how a due diligence project resulted in him hitting the state limit for wine delivery, and then dive deep into his investment in Twitter (TWTR).
Elliot's first YAVP appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJddlF3__Nw&t=3s
Elliot's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliotTurn
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:15 The time Elliot hit the state limit for alcohol shipments
3:00 Dropbox (DBX) update
6:50 Has Dropbox's pandemic performance disappointed?
10:15 Twitter (TWTR) overview
10:40 Trump ban: good or bad for Twitter?
14:10 Trump ban devil's advocate: engagement down
18:35 Why Elliot flipped from Twitter bear to bull
21:15 Twitter's failed sports rights attempts
25:15 Twitter's substack opportunity
30:55 Mismanagement bear case
35:30 How Twitter captures some of their consumer surplus
36:50 Valuation
40:30 Should Twitter charge for verification?
44:00 What does Twitter look like in a few years?
46:55 How Twitter gets to 500m DAUs
55:20 What to expect from Twitter's analyst day
59:50 Financial metrics to expect from Twitter's analyst day

Jeremy Raper on Haier Smart Home Jan 19, 2021

Show notes

Jeremy Raper, founder of the excellent rapercapital.com and our inaugural guest, makes a repeat appearance on the podcast. We provide an update on his idea from our last podcast (Brag), discuss a potential $300m+ investment he's looking to source, and then dive deep into his later idea, Haier Smart Home German Shares (690D).
Note that BRAG and Haier are both international small cap stocks; please do you own research and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.
Links
Jeremy's first YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/X-nVRNiSeos
Jeremy's second YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/PuP_c10B_NI
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:20 Jeremy's $400 million special situation
8:20 Update on BRAG
13:20 Jeremy's new big position, Haier Smart Home German D-shares (690D)
20:20 Discussion of fungibility of Haier's different shares
25:00 What's the right spread?
30:30 Devil's advocate: why can't the Hong Kong shares keep running?
38:20 Devil's advocate: comparison to SPAC warrant arb
41:05 Devil's advocate: geo-political risk
46:00 Discussion of position structuring (naked long or dirty arb)

Steve Clapham, author of The Smart Money Method Dec 07, 2020

Show notes

Steve Clapham, author of The Smart Money Method (https://amzn.to/3gwJJjb) comes on to discuss his new book and some of the valuation and research tricks and tips that didn't quite make it into his book.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:30 Steve's one tip for improving as a research analyst
10:10 Improving how you read a 10-K
17:20 clever research tactics and tips
21:00 Emerging accounting issues Steve's looking at
25:45 Electric car company discussion
34:20 Special situations discussion

Jeremy Raper on Bragg Gaming (BRAG.V) Dec 01, 2020

Show notes

Jeremy Raper, founder of the excellent rapercapital.com and our inaugural guest, makes a repeat appearance on the podcast. We discuss his recent views on the market, a quick update on his StoneX (SNEX) thesis, and his recent thesis on Canadian microcap Bragg Gaming (BRAG).
Note that BRAG is a Canadian Microcap; please do you own research and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.
Links
Jeremy's first YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/X-nVRNiSeos
Jeremy's article on BRAG: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4391937-bragg-gaming-undiscovered-igaming-saas-gem-be-next-gan-plc
Chapters
0:00 intro
1:30 Catch up and the current environment
5:55 How Jeremy is shorting in this environment
15:15 Sectors Jeremy is seeing opportunity on the long side
23:30 Update on StoneX (SNEX) thesis
29:50 Brag Overview
33:10 Similarities between Brag and GAN
38:55 Red flag #1: Management turnover
45:40 How a recent deal suggests equity upside
49:40 Why Brag could be a better business than Gan
56:20 Brag's 2021 outlook and German regulatory risk
1:11:00 Management's recent commentary on relisting

Zack Silver on Liberty Media Investor Day and CuriosityStream (CURI) Nov 24, 2020

Show notes

Zack Silver, an analyst at B. Riley, recaps what happened at Liberty Media's Investor Day, including Liberty's bullishness for tech companies, Liberty's plan to launch a SPAC, and how Liberty has handled the pandemic overall. Then, we discuss his newest coverage, CuriosityStream (CURI), a new streaming service that recently went public through a SPAC.
Chapters
0:00 Intro and Background
3:30 What separates the best buy-siders Zack interacts with
7:00 Shentel (SHEN): the most interesting stock in Zack's universe
9:20 WideOpenWest (WOW): the most undervalued name in his coverage
11:30 Takeaways from Liberty Investor Day
14:20 Liberty SPAC discussion
21:40 Does Liberty have tech platform envy?
23:10 How did Liberty respond to the pandemic? Were they aggressive enough?
25:50 Zack's bull case for SiriusXM (SIRI)
28:00 Brief technical issues causes Andrew to slightly panic
28:45 Technical issues end, panic stops, SIRI bull case resumes
36:59 CuriosityStream (CURI) background and overview
40:34 Why would someone pay for CURI when they have Netflix?
44:30 Is CURI better as an acquisition target than standalone?
51:41 Can CURI succeed if Discovery gets more serious about D2C?
56:50 Is Zack more worried about Discovery or Netflix competing with CURI?
1:02:10 If CURI works, what do they look like three to five years from now?

Tim Bergin from On Beyond Investing on Global Value Investing and the CIT merger Nov 20, 2020

Show notes

Tim Bergin is a value investor and the founder of On Beyond Investing (https://onbeyondinvesting.com/). In this episode, he discusses his background, why he sees value in the banking space and specifically in the First Citizen (FCNCA) / CIT merger, and how consolidation could drive upside in the Irish banking market
Tim's Twitter: https://twitter.com/onbeyondinvest
On Beyond Investing: https://onbeyondinvesting.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Tim's Background (and cold water swimming)
5:35 Tim's evolution from credit analyst to value investing
8:50 Seeing value in financials and mining / commodity stocks
17:40 How to spot uninvest-able bad banks
27:55 Tim's Favorite Uranium Stocks
30:05 First Citizen's (FCNCA) / CIT merger overview
37:00 Synergies from the merger and why it's so accrettive
44:00 Could a large bank spin off a high multiple fintech company?
47:30 Overview of the Irish banking market and why consolidation could benefit investors

Chris Colvin from Breach Inlet Capital on Apollo's attempt to steal Great Canadian Gaming Nov 16, 2020

Show notes

On November 10th, Great Canadian Gaming (GC) announced a deal to sell themselves to Apollo (APO) for $39/share. On the subsequent earnings call, shareholders immediately revolted, with several of GC's largest shareholders telling the company they would not vote for the deal because they thought the deal substantially undervalued the company.
One of those shareholders was Chris Colvin from Breach Inlet Capital. In this episode, Chris comes on to discuss why he sees so much value in GC, why he thinks shareholders should vote this deal down, and what comes next for GC if the Apollo deal is voted down.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Chris and Breach Inlet's background
3:55 How Chris approaches shorting
7:40 Why Chris sees value in timeshares and Canadian companies
12:00 Great Canadian overview and background
20:10 Why Chris thinks GC can earn $6/share in the near future
28:30 How the company signaled they were undervalued pre-COVID
30:30 Why Apollo's "big premium" bid isn't that big
43:15 Why the Apollo deal seems designed to low ball shareholders
52:30 GC's economic sensitivity (or lack thereof)
55:00 Timeline for Apollo deal and expectations for how it plays out
1:00:45 How GC could structure a deal that Chris would vote for
Breach Inlet website: http://www.breachinletcap.com/

Boyar Value Group on the value in MSGS, IAC, and ANGI Nov 09, 2020

Show notes

Jonathan Boyar and Shrey Patel from the Boyar Value Group discuss their firm's background and their process for finding stocks trading for less than private market value. Then, we dive deep intro four of their favorite stocks: MSGE (owns Madison Square Garden), MSGS (the Knicks and Rangers), IAC (Barry DIller's holding company), and ANGI (homeadvisor + angie's list). Topics include why James Dolan isn't as bad a manager as you think, why MSGE's Sphere expansion might not be a disaster, IAC's pending Vimeo spinoff, and what the market is missing on ANGI.
Boyar Website: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/
Boyar Twitter: https://twitter.com/BoyarValue
Boyar Podcast: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/world-according-boyar-podcast/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Boyar Group Background
3:30 2008's market versus 2020's
6:10 Why MSGS trades for less than its parts
18:30 Why do value investors love IAC?
20:30 ANGI bull case
36:20 Why IAC is spinning Vimeo
42:50 What IAC sees in MGM
47:45 Plans for IAC's huge cash balance
51:15 Thoughts on IAC's management and succession plan
54:05 Thoughts on IAC's other businesses

Mike Melby from Gate City Capital on Amrep $AXR Nov 03, 2020

Show notes

Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, comes on to discuss his background and his investment into Amrep (AXR), which his firm owns 18% of.
Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/
Show Chapters:
0:00 intro
1:00 Mike's background
22:45 Amrep's history
29:30 How Mike thinks about Amrep's land
55:15 Walkthrough of Amrep's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)
1:12:30 Amrep's recent big repurchase

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