UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

Washington Weekly Podcast: RNC takeaways, Assassination investigation, Sen. Menendez Jul 19, 2024

Show notes

After an eventful week in Milwaukee Wisconsin, Shane recaps the RNC events and speeches. We also spend time discussing what comes next in the investigation into the assassination attempt of former President Trump. Plus, thoughts on the conviction of NJ Senator Bob Menendez. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: Q2 earnings checkup, Fed’s Beige Book & the week ahead Jul 19, 2024

Show notes

With the first week of Q2 corporate earnings now behind us, we reflect on how the initial round of reporting is coming in. We also spend some time reviewing this week’s economic data releases, including Retail Sales, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Slight disappointments' Jul 19, 2024

Show notes

UK June retail sales were soggy, coming in below consensus (although not that many economists bother to forecast these numbers, so “consensus” is not necessarily that reliable). The weather was bad in June—there was also a rather unexpected general election campaign, but politics is not really a reason to stop shopping.

Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - A shorter runway Jul 18, 2024

Show notes

As growth and inflation trend lower, coupled with the next rate cutting cycle on the horizon, we discuss how fixed income investors should position accordingly, along with what to expect across fixed income markets in the months ahead. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rate cuts are coming' Jul 18, 2024

Show notes

Two Federal Reserve speakers signalled that interest rate cuts are coming (the tone is consistent with a September rate cut). The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes strongly suggests that profit-led inflation is in full retreat (retailers are discounting to buy back customer loyalty, and customer price sensitivity is high). Growth and employment also appear to be moderating. The ECB meets today, giving Lagarde an opportunity to speak—no rate cut is expected now, but the quarter-point-a-quarter rhythm is looked for.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Is BoE Governor Bailey a Swiftie' Jul 17, 2024

Show notes

UK June inflation was broadly as expected, and on target. However, the popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay. Hotel price increases were a very sizable part of June inflation. BoE Governor Bailey should ignore this effect (whether or not the governor is a Swiftie). Goods prices, and in particular durable goods prices, remain firmly in deflation. Producer price inflation was weaker than expected.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Does the vice president matter?' Jul 16, 2024

Show notes

Former US President Trump’s selection of Senator Vance as his running mate is not immediately market moving but it is market relevant. In a television interview, Vance identified China as the US’s greatest threat. Markets have been inclined to think that Trump would not really tax US consumers who buy goods partially made overseas as aggressively as they threaten—but the rhetoric suggests tariff threats may be serious.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Market check Jul 15, 2024

Show notes

Jason rejoins the podcast to share his take on recent economic data and what it means for the timing of Fed rate cuts in the months ahead. We also spend time discussing current investor sentiment, along with equity valuations, Q2 earnings, and the political landscape. Plus, what this all means for your portfolio, and how to think about positioning accordingly. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Violence and consequences' Jul 15, 2024

Show notes

The shooting at former US President Trump’s election rally during the weekend has provoked only a limited market reaction. Markets are concerned about policy probabilities, and while individuals may condemn acts of violence against political candidates, they will not necessarily change their policy projections. There is a popular perception that acts of violence against a candidate increase their support, but this is not necessarily true. Analysis is complicated by US polarization, and shorter news cycles from social media. This adds to uncertainty without necessarily changing policy probabilities.

Top of the Morning: Q2 earnings preview, Equity valuations, week ahead Jul 12, 2024

Show notes

We close out the week by sharing expectations for Q2 corporate earnings reporting, along with thoughts around equity valuations and positioning. We also touch on this week’s inflation data, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

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