UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More on inflation (and deflation)' Jul 12, 2024

Show notes

US consumer price inflation details continue to suggest that US rate cuts are overdue. Harmonized inflation slowed again (to 1.85% y/y). Durable goods prices are falling at the most aggressive rate in two decades. Most sectors experience deflation somewhere in the US. Investors should remember that the slowing of the fantasy owners’ equivalent rent has no direct effect on consumer spending power.

Washington Weekly Podcast: RNC preview, Polling update, NATO Summit Jul 11, 2024

Show notes

With the Republican National Convention set to commence, we preview the themes that will be covered, along with a look at potential VP picks. We also take a pulse on swing state polling in the aftermath of the first Presidential debate, and touch on calls for President Biden to step down from the ticket. Plus, thoughts on this week’s NATO Summit in Washington DC. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

CIO First Take: June CPI data & Market response Jul 11, 2024

Show notes

Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what this latest inflation data might mean for monetary policy, and the markets. Featured are Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 11) Jul 11, 2024

Show notes

This week on the Viewpoints podcast, Burkhard spends time reviewing performance trends across global markets, and what they tell us about investor sentiment. We also touch on the outcomes of the recent snap elections within France and the United Kingdom. Plus, on the lighter side, share a summer reading recommendation now that summer holiday season is in full swing.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflationary details' Jul 11, 2024

Show notes

We have US June consumer price inflation data. Federal Reserve Chair Powell thinks this matters, because politicians think this matters, and Powell thinks politicians are important. Economists, who are actually important, tend to regard headline US consumer price data as a rather poor quality statistic.

Top of the Morning: Emerging Market equities - Looking back and looking forward Jul 10, 2024

Show notes

As we have made our way into the second-half of the year, Xingchen drops by to reflect on Emerging Market equities performance drivers over the first-half, and shares expectations for performance in the months ahead. We also review the current opportunity-set for Emerging Market equities, and some developments within the asset class to be mindful of. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Bad policy waits for “good data”' Jul 10, 2024

Show notes

Perhaps Federal Reserve Chair Powell has opened an economics book (possibly “How the world really works—the economy”). Powell told the Senate banking committee that cutting rates too early would be bad, but cutting rates too late would also be bad. Unfortunately, the Fed Chair insisted that more “good data” was required to induce a rate cut. With inflation down over eight percentage points in less than two years, real rates soaring, and deflation peppering sectors of the US, it is starting to look like rate cuts are too late.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Powell, policy, and perceptive questions' Jul 09, 2024

Show notes

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is testifying to the Senate Banking Committee today. The issue is whether Powell (who is not an economist) will be able to answer any perceptive questions that might be asked. If US inflation is lower than in Europe, why is the Fed not cutting rates? Why emphasize data dependency when data is unreliable and policy works with a lag?

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - US Labor Market Jul 08, 2024

Show notes

In the wake of the June Jobs Report, we take a pulse on the state of the US Labor Market and how the Fed might be interpreting the latest round of data. We also review expectations for monetary policy in the coming months, along with the current asset allocation recommendations from CIO. Featured is Brian Rose, CIO Senior Economist Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Ashok Bhatia (Neuberger Berman) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) Jul 08, 2024

Show notes

On the mid-year outlook edition, we spend time reflecting on the drivers of fixed income performance over the first-half of the year, and outline expectations for the second-half, including for rates and monetary policy. We also spend time sharing views when it comes to positioning within fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Ashok Bhatia, Co-Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income with Neuberger Berman. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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