UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Latest Episodes:

UBS ElectionWatch 2024: After the debate - Reaction and implications Jul 08, 2024

Show notes

Tune in for to hear commentary on the first debate between President Biden and former President Trump. How might the debate impact the election in November and your investments?

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A fiscal can’t can’t?' Jul 08, 2024

Show notes

France’s second-round legislative election produced an unexpected result, with the far right Rassemblement National pushed into third place. This highlights again a market problem—politics is becoming more important to markets, but opinion polls are less reliable as a guide to outcomes. Polarization means financial institutions try to strike a neutral tone—“opinion polls suggest” rather than “we believe that”, but if polls are less reliable market mispricing is more common.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political iceberg' Jul 05, 2024

Show notes

The UK general election result is now clear (for the benefit of US readers, many countries are able to get a definitive result within hours of voting having concluded). The result was entirely as expected by markets, with the Labour Party winning a sizable majority. Former Prime Minister Truss (who presided over the Truss debacle in markets) lost her seat.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Stable democracy' Jul 04, 2024

Show notes

US markets are closed as the country celebrates its attempt to escape rule by a monarch. There has been media speculation about US President Biden’s candidacy for re-election. Markets are not likely to react to such speculation at this stage. Politically, markets primarily focus on the probabilities of economic policy change.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Taking time means tightening' Jul 03, 2024

Show notes

Federal Reserve Chair Powell said yesterday that the strength of the US economy and labor market meant the Fed could take its time in cutting rates. This is a rather risky point of view. US inflation has collapsed more than eight percentage points, and the harmonized measure is below 2%. Taking time means tightening policy further. Can the US economy withstand more tightening?

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The end of profit-led inflation?' Jul 02, 2024

Show notes

The British Retail Consortium shop price index (measuring prices in selected stores in the UK) sank to a 0.2% y/y rate. Is this the end of profit-led inflation? Profit-led inflation occurs when retailers use a dominant narrative to disguise profit increases when raising prices. However, at some point, price increases become the dominant narrative and consumer rebellion defeats margin expansion.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The trouble with three-ways' Jul 01, 2024

Show notes

The first round of the French elections produced results broadly in line with opinion polls (as to the popular vote). An unusually large number of second-round votes could be three-way contests. That makes the final outcome harder to predict. In the past, there has been a “front républicain” with third-placed moderate candidates withdrawing to increase the chances of defeating a more extreme party (in this election, the Rassemblement National). It is not clear how many constituencies will follow such a strategy.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Cold realities' Jun 28, 2024

Show notes

Polls immediately after the US presidential debate declared former President Trump the winner. While incumbents often “lose” debates, US President Biden reportedly lost by a large margin. This invites increased investor scrutiny of Trump’s policies, especially around trade. The economic consequences of tariffs are relatively obvious, but there is uncertainty about how many campaign pledges will translate into policy action.

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 10) Jun 27, 2024

Show notes

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard spends time reviewing an abundance of global election-related developments, including thoughts around Thursday’s US Presidential debate, along with upcoming snap elections in both the UK and France. Burkhard explains the impact of these developments to markets, along with offers guidance as to how investors should navigate through election-induced market volatility.

Washington Weekly Podcast: Presidential Debate preview, Latest polling Jun 27, 2024

Show notes

For this week, Shane previews the highly anticipated debate between President Biden, and former-President Trump, including a review of the rules and conditions. We also spend time reviewing likely areas of focus and the issues on the minds of the American voter. Plus, examine what the latest national and swing-state polling is pointing to. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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