UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Is Fed policy error nearly over?' Jul 31, 2024

Show notes

The Federal Reserve is not expected to end its policy error today, but hopefully a rate cut will be signaled for September. Monetary policy has progressively tightened since the start of last year. For savers, slowing price inflation has increased real interest rates. For borrowers, slowing household income growth has increased real interest rates. The pressure of real policy has become ever more onerous as the economy has slowed.

Top of the Morning: UBS CEO Macro Briefing Book - Quarterly update Jul 30, 2024

Show notes

We spotlight the latest edition of the quarterly UBS CEO Macro Briefing book as we explore how a shifting macro environment and unprecedented election cycle has impacted the outlook for business owners. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Sustainable Investing Perspectives with Jennifer Anderson (Lazard) and Amantia Muhedini (UBS CIO) Jul 30, 2024

Show notes

This month’s episode focuses on the reasons for and benefits of investing in people, along with the opportunities and challenges that exist within this ever-evolving landscape. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jennifer Anderson, Head of ESG with Lazard Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflationary tendencies' Jul 30, 2024

Show notes

Germany and Spain offer July inflation data. German data is expected to be stable. That puts it within a reasonable range around the ECB’s 2% target. Spanish data is expected to slow, though somewhat further away from the target level. However, the extent of disinflation recently is truly remarkable—German inflation has fallen over nine percentage points in less than two years, and Spanish inflation has fallen over seven percentage points.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Rotation drivers Jul 29, 2024

Show notes

Jason explains the factors that have been behind the notable market rotations over the past month, and for how much longer these moves may continue. We also preview a busy week ahead of Q2 earnings reports and macro data, including the July Jobs Report. Plus, provide thoughts around portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political possibilities' Jul 29, 2024

Show notes

Markets care about politics when policy probabilities change. So far, the US political circus has not changed many probabilities. The polling position of US Vice-President Harris has improved, but sentiment surveys (as low quality indicators of markets) are not significantly shifting probabilities. The prospect of an announcement about the Democrats’ vice-presidential nominee might matter. Vice-presidential nominees rarely change things much, but they can hint at policy direction—which investors care about.

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview Jul 26, 2024

Show notes

As we close out another trading week, Danny Kessler drops by to reflect on this week’s abundance of Q2 corporate earnings results, notable economic data releases, plus previews what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Spending real money' Jul 26, 2024

Show notes

Yesterday’s second quarter US GDP release showed the US consumer is alive and well, and spending money. Some of the GDP data reflected a bounce back from the first quarter. Today’s personal income, consumption, and deflator data offers more insight into the direction of travel. It would be unwise to bet against reasonable US consumption, with middle-income households still relatively well supported.

Washington Weekly Podcast: What’s next for President Biden and the Democratic Party? Jul 25, 2024

Show notes

In the wake of Sunday’s announcement from President Biden, Shane outlines what comes next for the Democratic Party and the 2024 election cycle, including what the ticket could look like in the weeks ahead, and the role President Biden will play on the campaign trail. We also examine how the GOP has been responding to the events of the past week, and recap Monday’s Congressional testimony involving former US Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

How should I be positioned? with Jason Thomas (Carlyle) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO) Jul 25, 2024

Show notes

Jason Thomas rejoins Jason Draho for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at The Carlyle Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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